Change Research: Biden +2 in AZ, Biden +3 in FL, Biden +4 in MI, Biden +3 in NC, Biden +2 in PA...

[VAR]

Nationwide
Biden 51%
Trump 42%

AZ
Biden 47%
Trump 45%

FL
Biden 48%
Trump 45%

MI
Biden 46%
Trump 42%

NC
Biden 49%
Trump 46%

PA
Biden 48%
Trump 46%

WI
Biden 48%
Trump 43%

https://www.changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-10

[BlueSwan]

So basically Change gives Trump a MASSIVE electoral college advantage. Biden ahead by 9 nationally, but not ahead by more than 5 in ANY of the big 6 swing states. In this poll Biden could win by 5-6 points and still lose the EC.

[wbrocks67]

So Change goes back to being junk. Got it.

There's no way Biden is up nearly the same amount nationally as he was 2 weeks ago (they had it +10 at that time), and then there is this much movement in the battlegrounds. Not to mention, NC voting to the left of PA?

[wbrocks67]

Like what?!

Cal Cunningham leads Thom Tillis by a significant 12 point margin in North Carolina, Gary Peters leads John James by 4 points in Michigan, and Mark Kelly leads Martha McSally by 2 points in Arizona.

Done with Change.

[Horus]

Looks about right, Wisconsin is probably a shade too Biden friendly.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOL Change.

[kph14]

Change's state polls all have very low sample sizes. The North Carolina poll has a sample of just 284 voters.

[BobbieMac]

Biden +9 nationally is about average.

Biden is +3 in the state toplines. If you extrapolate their results with UNS to a national score:

AZ = Biden +8
FL = Biden +6
MI = Biden +6
NC = Biden +9
PA = Biden +5

So even though Biden is only up 3 in their battleground states, he would still be up around 7 as an average nationally. Therefore, Change are saying Biden is underperforming about 2 points. Which is all in the margin of error.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So, Biden wasnt ahead in TX as the other poll said he was by 2, OH and IA would flip before TX, anyways

[BobbieMac]

So, Biden wasnt ahead in TX as the other poll said he was by 2, OH and IA would flip before TX, anyways

There are no TX numbers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So, Biden wasnt ahead in TX as the other poll said he was by 2, OH and IA would flip before TX, anyways

There are no TX numbers.

No there isnt, but Cornyn has been consistently ahead of Hegar by 5-6 pts and TX voted last time by 5 to 6.

As I said before, it would be an upset to win TX, but Ds are on track to win a 50 split Senate and 278 map. With a small chance of a rally around the flag Red wave, if there is a Hunter Biden Ukraine report by Late October.

Covid 19 was the D October surprise that came in March, we dont know the R Oct surprise is, unless they release a Ukraine report,  they say they are

[Nyvin]

Kinda hard to believe with the national number being Biden +9.   That's a huge skew from the state numbers.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Change has been a pretty favorable pollster for Trump all cycle, so it says a lot that he isn't leading *any* of these states in their polling.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL Change Research. The state numbers literally make zero sense with a 9 pts national lead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LOL Change Research. The state numbers literally make zero sense with a 9 pts national lead.

Biden isnt really up 9 pts in LV screen, only in RV screen when we get close to Labor day, it switches to LV.

Many of these polls they dont record third party candidates,  just like in 2016. Gary Johnson took enough support from Hilary to cost her states.

If you include 3rd party candidates, the lead gets smaller. NC isnt 12 points to Cunningham and Kelly is only winning by 2

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm willing to accept that even if Trump loses badly that he will still win more electoral votes than he should, but if Biden is above 50% nationwide and leading Trump by four points or more, he will perform much better in the states he absolutely needs to win (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) at a minimum. This poll makes little sense.

[The Mikado]

Per Change Research:

Country as a whole moves 7 points more Dem vs 2016. (+9 rather than +2)
Arizona moves 5.5 points more Dem
Florida moves 4.3 points more Dem
Michigan moves 4.2 points more Dem
North Carolina moves 6.8 points more Dem
Pennsylvania moves 2.7 points more Dem


So...um...if every one of the swing states is moving less Dem than the national average is moving, the safe states (Republican and Democrat) must be absolutely killing it moving towards Biden in Change Research's world. I'm imagining, like, 15 point Dem swings in Missouri or Tennessee or New Jersey or Washington or etc. It's literally the only way you get these results.

Either that or the state polls just make absolutely no sense in context with the national polls and Change Research isn't a great pollster anyway.

Pick your poison.

Pennsylvania is NOT voting 7 points right of the national average.  Just...no.

[NOVA Green]

Per Change Research:

Country as a whole moves 7 points more Dem vs 2016. (+9 rather than +2)
Arizona moves 5.5 points more Dem
Florida moves 4.3 points more Dem
Michigan moves 4.2 points more Dem
North Carolina moves 6.8 points more Dem
Pennsylvania moves 2.7 points more Dem


So...um...if every one of the swing states is moving less Dem than the national average is moving, the safe states (Republican and Democrat) must be absolutely killing it moving towards Biden in Change Research's world. I'm imagining, like, 15 point Dem swings in Missouri or Tennessee or New Jersey or Washington or etc. It's literally the only way you get these results.

Either that or the state polls just make absolutely no sense in context with the national polls and Change Research isn't a great pollster anyway.

Pick your poison.

Pennsylvania is NOT voting 7 points right of the national average.  Just...no.

Good post...

Could also mean that Texas, California, New York and random other places such as MA and WA are swinging way more DEM than Swing States....

Not disputing your point at all, and totally agreed that generally one would not expect swing states to be generally much less responsive to movements in the National polls....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The gap is definitely closing as we are gonna see a gradual shift in polls, anyways when we go to the LV screen in October, Biden is still favored but there wont be anymore 10 pt polls and QU are gonna poll races that matter like WI and CO Senate where Hickenlooper is gonna be ahead by 4 pts and we wont see any CO or FL plus 13 numbers