Monmouth- Biden +9, +7 with Amash

[The Mikado]

Is it even for sure yet that Amash will get the Libertarian nomination? I haven't been paying attention to their internal politics. They were able to clear the field for Johnson last time, but that's no guarantee that they'll do so again for Amash.

Also, are the Libs and Greens even getting on the ballot in most states?

Libertarians are going to be on the ballot in over 40 states, though Libertarians aren't going to replicate 2016's 50 state ballot access. They already have access in 36 states and counting.



Greens are going to be a lot more restricted than in 2016.

EDIT: A number of the grey states on that map, like WA, MN, WI, NJ, and RI haven't even opened up their ballot access processes yet, and some of them have very easy qualifications to get on. Tennessee also has absurdly easy ballot access for "independent" candidates but very hard for third parties, so Amash and Hawkins will likely both register as independents in TN.

EDIT 2: While the Libertarians have access in 36 states and counting, the Greens are far behind, with 23 states and counting.

[The Mikado]

Is it even for sure yet that Amash will get the Libertarian nomination? I haven't been paying attention to their internal politics. They were able to clear the field for Johnson last time, but that's no guarantee that they'll do so again for Amash.

Also, are the Libs and Greens even getting on the ballot in most states?

Libertarians are going to be on the ballot in over 40 states, though Libertarians aren't going to replicate 2016's 50 state ballot access. They already have access in 36 states and counting.



Greens are going to be a lot more restricted than in 2016.

EDIT: A number of the grey states on that map, like WA, MN, WI, NJ, and RI haven't even opened up their ballot access processes yet, and some of them have very easy qualifications to get on. Tennessee also has absurdly easy ballot access for "independent" candidates but very hard for third parties, so Amash and Hawkins will likely both register as independents in TN.

Which states are they going to miss? They are already in Oklahoma, which is the state they missed in 2012.

Under the circumstances, getting 3,000 signatures in Alaska or 5,000 in Alabama by August (and really multiply those numbers by 1.5 to deal with invalid signatures) might be difficult, given how no one's gonna come close to a petitioner right now and Alaska isn't exactly big population-wise.

Arguably the biggest challenge in 10,000 signatures in Maryland, again by August.

[The Mikado]

I haven't seen much discussion related to third parties actually getting on the ballot this year.  Can anyone enlighten me on the requirements (specifically those for battleground states) to get on the ballot?  I'd imagine that it is never a shoe-in for a third party to make a ballot, and that if a large amount of signatures are required it could be even more difficult this year given the current environment.

Current progress of Libertarians and Greens. The Green image is useful because it shows which states haven't even begun ballot access opening yet, some of which are quite easy (MN and WA especially). Libertarians have automatic ballot access in a lot of states due to Gary Johnson's really good 2016 performance, which is why they start off so high. This is actually especially relevant for Oklahoma, which is otherwise notoriously the hardest state in the country to get ballot access in, and will be essentially impossible for the Greens this year.

These states all require a certain number of signatures and a deadline of some sort. Arizona's deadline, for example, has already passed, and if Howie Hawkins wants to get on the ballot in AZ, he has to hope his lawsuit against AZ wins. There is precedent: Illinois and Vermont both let the Greens and Libertarians on the ballot this year after they both sued that the insanely high signature number was impossible due to COVID.

Signatures are hard almost everywhere, but the roughest are states with really small populations. Both the Libertarians and the Greens have to make the ballot in New Hampshire, for example. To make it on as Libertarians/Greens, they'd need upwards of 17,000 signatures, which is basically impossible now. They're going to try to make it on as independents, where they'll each need 3,000 signatures. New Hampshire's population of just over a million means that that's actually quite a few New Hampshireites. Tennessee is even more extreme on that front: To get a third party on the ballot in TN requires a whopping 56,000 signatures, but to get on as an independent only requires a paltry 275(!), so both Hawkins and Amash would be running in TN as Indies rather than for their party.

[The Mikado]

While I'm at it:

Several interesting states' ballot access process.

Minnesota: 2,000 signatures gathered between May 19th and August 18th. Minnesota's big enough that 2,000 signatures is a pretty low hurdle even in this environment.

Pennsylvania: 5,000 signatures gathered by August 3rd.

Wisconsin: 2,000 signatures between July 1st and August 4th.