538 Democratic primary model is up (user search)
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  538 Democratic primary model is up (search mode)
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Author Topic: 538 Democratic primary model is up  (Read 9420 times)
The Mikado
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« on: January 09, 2020, 01:27:26 PM »
Quote from: Jbrase on January 09, 2020, 01:17:12 PM
It's almost like they are assuming all the races happen at once.

 
 

It's the exact opposite. Model is factoring in that if Biden or Buttigieg win Iowa, Biden's chances everywhere skyrocket. If Sanders wins Iowa, Biden's chances drop in a lot of places.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2020, 01:37:35 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on January 10, 2020, 01:36:22 PM
Quote from: Skye on January 10, 2020, 01:17:41 PM
Quote from: Fmr. Gov. NickG on January 10, 2020, 01:07:53 PM
From this article, it looks like the model is placing way too much importance on who wins Iowa.  Biden is 80% to win an absolute majority if he wins Iowa, but only 20% if he loses.  Sanders is 61% to win an absolute majority if he wins Iowa, but only 8% if he loses.  I really don't think Iowa has been that overwhelmingly pivotal in past primaries, with the exception of 2004.

Let's be real, if Biden wins IA, it would be hard for him to lose the nomination.

True, but the reverse is not so clear-cut.  It's still very feasible for him to win even if he loses Iowa, so the model's 20% chance for him in that case seems way too low.

If Buttigieg wins Iowa, Biden would still be a heavy favorite. If Sanders wins Iowa, we have a real race on our hands.
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