The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[The Mikado]

Does this look right to people for the GOP:

ALREADY IN:

Trump
Ramaswamy
Haley

NOT OFFICIALLY IN, BUT OBVIOUSLY RUNNING:

Pence
DeSantis
Pompeo
Hutchinson (AR)

MAYBE:

Scott (SC)
Sununu
Christie

If they all got in that'd be 10, but I'm expecting some in the Maybe category to not run.

[The Mikado]

Potential candidates for President have to announce their candidacy no later than October or November, right?

From what I remember, filing deadlines for the earliest primary states (SC, NH, NV) are in November - or even as early as October - because overseas ballots have to be sent out long before election day.

Serious candidates can't miss those deadlines.

I think the first filing deadline for a state will be Alabama on November 10th. The deadlines start coming pretty thick in December.

Most people use the beginning of September as the unofficial last chance for late entries, though Mike Bloomberg entered considerably later last cycle in late November, after the first few filing deadlines had already passed.

[The Mikado]

Potential candidates for President have to announce their candidacy no later than October or November, right?

From what I remember, filing deadlines for the earliest primary states (SC, NH, NV) are in November - or even as early as October - because overseas ballots have to be sent out long before election day.

Serious candidates can't miss those deadlines.

My guess is that Pence, Pompeo, Hutchinson, etc are in by March/April, RDS in May, and Chris Christie in June/July/August.

For what it's worth (not necessarily a lot), DeSantis has said he won't announce either way until the end of the Florida legislative session, which ends the first week of June.

[The Mikado]

ALREADY IN:

Trump
Ramaswamy
Haley
Hutchinson

NOT OFFICIALLY IN, BUT OBVIOUSLY RUNNING:

Pence
DeSantis
Pompeo

MAYBE:

Scott
Sununu
Christie
Bolton
Suarez
Burgum

[The Mikado]

ALREADY IN:

Trump
Ramaswamy
Haley
Hutchinson
Scott

NOT OFFICIALLY IN, BUT OBVIOUSLY RUNNING:

Pence
DeSantis
Pompeo

MAYBE:

Sununu
Christie
Bolton
Suarez
Burgum

For those complaining I include Vivek Ramaswamy and not Cory Stapleton, wake me up when Cory Stapleton has a glowing interview with Tucker Carlson.

[The Mikado]

I thought Bolton was already a definite in ........?

Last I heard he was still saying he'd only run if there was a space in the field where no one was running with his ideas. My guess is he worded it that way so that he can eventually defer to Pompeo when he gets in.

[The Mikado]

ALREADY IN:

Trump
Ramaswamy
Haley
Hutchinson
Scott
Elder

NOT OFFICIALLY IN, BUT OBVIOUSLY RUNNING:

Pence
DeSantis

MAYBE:

Sununu
Christie
Bolton
Suarez
Burgum



Q: Should I include Glenn Youngkin? I keep hearing he's like 98% out or 99% out.

[The Mikado]

Bernie Sanders is out.

Socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders has endorsed President Biden’s re-election, closing the door on mounting a third consecutive insurgent White House bid in 2024.

The 81-year-old Sanders (I-Vt.), who challenged Biden, 80, for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, told the Associated Press he would “do everything I can to see the president is re-elected.”

“The last thing this country needs is a Donald Trump or some other right-wing demagogue who is going to try to undermine American democracy or take away a woman’s right to choose, or not address the crisis of gun violence, or racism, sexism or homophobia,” said Sanders, who famously ran a closer-than-expected primary race against Hillary Clinton in 2016.

“So, I’m in to do what I can to make sure that the president is re-elected.”

Throw in:

https://twitter.com/GavinNewsom/status/1650862280098328584

And:


https://twitter.com/gretchenwhitmer/status/1650881130990653445

The two other most prominent Dems sometimes having names thrown around as potential challengers.

[The Mikado]

Courtesy of Kaiser Dave:


https://twitter.com/JBPritzker/status/1650879181138407428

[The Mikado]

For the love of God, Torie, sanitize your links.

Anyway, I don't think Tucker Carlson wants to be President.

My best guess is Tucker knows just how valuable a brand his name is. Tucker isn't "going to" Newsmax or some smaller operation, BUT Tucker may very well go to OANN (much smaller than Newsmax with shakier financials) and just say "I'm buying this: we're the Tucker News Network now, and TNN is going to be a Tucker-branded lifestyle GOP brand. Ball tanning and anti-woke beer in the daytime, Father Coughlin's Power Hour at primetime."

Tucker isn't going to be a host somewhere, but he might well just take one of these things over and do it himself. He knows the secret sauce better than most.

[The Mikado]

ALREADY IN:

Trump
Ramaswamy
Haley
Hutchinson
Scott
Elder


MAYBE:

Pence
DeSantis
Sununu
Christie
Bolton
Suarez
Burgum


Updating on the news that Youngkin is 100% out. Demoted Pence and DeSantis from "Obviously Running" to "Maybe" because it suddenly doesn't seem as obvious.

[The Mikado]

Has a former Vice President ever run before against his President when they had run on the same ticket? (I.E not including when the second place finisher in the electoral college became the Vice President.)

100% sure the answer's no if you're not including Adams vs Jefferson as stated but how many opportunities for that would there even be? Like, the only other Presidents to seek a return to office after leaving are Grant, Cleveland (successfully), Teddy Roosevelt, and arguably Herbert Hoover (whose 1940 bid fizzled so quickly it barely even counts). Maybe throw Gerald Ford in there as someone who pondered a comeback but never bit. None of them had a former VP run against them for the nomination.

[The Mikado]

ALREADY IN:

Trump
Ramaswamy
Haley
Hutchinson
Scott
Elder


NOT IN YET, BUT DEFINITELY IN:

Pence
DeSantis
Christie


MAYBE:
Sununu
Bolton
Suarez
Burgum
Youngkin

Youngkin returns to the list. Bugrum remains at Maybe but could move up soon, ditto Suarez and Sununu. List will look quite different next week if Pence, Christie, and DeSantis all join as expected.



I know some people run just to boost publicity, but Youngkin seeming to be dipping his toes at getting back in after already saying he was out for good is wild to me.

Also who is Bugrum for? Who looks at a field like this and goes "You know what we're missing? The Governor of North Dakota." The more of these clowns run, the more Trump's just gonna say "There's no point for me to be on a stage with all these has-beens and never-weres" and just skip the debates.

[The Mikado]

ALREADY IN:

Trump
Ramaswamy
Haley
Hutchinson
Scott (SC)
Elder
Pence
DeSantis
Christie
Burgum
Suarez
Hurd

MAYBE:
Bolton
Scott (FL)
Youngkin
Perry

WHAT THE HELL WHY IS RICK SCOTT THINKING ABOUT RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT?

[The Mikado]

There is a speculation that Virginia Governor Youngkin could jump in as late as November or early December.

He would only miss the Nevada filing deadline if he jumps in so late, and it won't mean anything really because Republicans are going to boycott the Nevada primary anyway and hold a caucus later.

My question: if Youngkin runs after the November elections in Virginia, would he have to resign as Governor, or can he stay in office and run for President at the same time?

As you say, Rs aren't participating in the Nevada primary anyway so it's a moot point for them. That said, jumping in in November is 100% insane. It's also a big gamble on how the 2023 off-off year races in VA go. If Dems retake the VA State House (very possible) he looks awful and weak right as he joins.

[The Mikado]

Would Kasich be a good candidate for No Labels or is he not centrist enough for that

Something like John Kasich/John Bel Edwards would be an interesting direction for No Labels to go in. (I assume we're all on the same page of them wanting an R/D mixed ticket)

[The Mikado]

Kemp would sink quicker than DeSantis against Trump. Youngkin would at least be able to put up a credible fight and position himself for 2028.

You mean Youngkin can get to the 3-4% Tim Scott hovers around. How does he get past that, though? That's about the size of the party that actually wants a genial friendly Trump alternative. The fact that Trump's...Trump is a selling point, not a liability, to actual primary voters.

[The Mikado]

Kemp would sink quicker than DeSantis against Trump. Youngkin would at least be able to put up a credible fight and position himself for 2028.

You mean Youngkin can get to the 3-4% Tim Scott hovers around. How does he get past that, though? That's about the size of the party that actually wants a genial friendly Trump alternative. The fact that Trump's...Trump is a selling point, not a liability, to actual primary voters.

I don't know, I think Youngkin can easily get to 10% against Trump. I don't think he goes much further beyond that, but I think he can pull in at least a ~100-200 delegates and place second to Trump in the convention count.

And I don't even like Youngkin all that much for that matter.

Aren't most of the states 'winner take all'?

Most is an exaggeration, but there are quite a few of them (Florida and Ohio are two very large states that are WTA) and quite a few more, like California and Georgia, that have adapted a 50% WTA trigger (proportional if leading candidate is below 50%, 100% of delegates to winner if winner is over 50%)

[The Mikado]

If Youngkin jumped in on November 8th, the day after the VA Legislative elections, he'd miss the NV (Oct 15th) and SC (Oct 31st) GOP filing deadlines but still (barely) make the next set of deadlines, AL (Nov 10th) and AR (Nov 14th). If he waited a week he'd miss those too.

[The Mikado]

The NH filing period has been set for October 11 through October 27:

https://www.sos.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt561/files/inline-documents/sonh/filing-period-announcement-for-web.pdf

A date for the NH primaries has not been set.

Filing on the Democratic side will be more interesting than on the Republican side, because NH Democrats are still in disarray over Biden filing or not. The latest I have read is that Biden won't file and NH Democrats will organize a write-in campaign for him.

Democrats have nothing to say in NH when it comes to election administration, because Republicans are in charge of the state legislature, the Secretary of State and the Governor.

Traditionally a bunch of random weirdos file for the NH primary who don't file for any other state. Expect a list of like 20-30 candidates on both parties on this ballot.

[The Mikado]

Is she running?

https://twitter.com/ninaturner/status/1707110008981213237

If Cornel West is running for the Green Party, there's an opening for the nomination of her "People's Party."

She's not gonna have any fun being on the ballot in like 6-10 states if she goes that way, though.