Bernie Sanders 2020 campaign megathread v2 (pg 77 - declares victory in Iowa)

[The Mikado]

Sanders has it, straight through to Milwaukee. The Revolution grows daily.

I am interpreting the thread so far as "people saying the opposite of what they believe in." If I'm misinterpreting the joke, please disregard.

[The Mikado]

 Bernie has just gotten to second place on the RCP and he performed well enough at the last debate.

That's based entirely on the Emerson poll, though. We've been in a bit of a polling drought, and probably that'll last through next week? It'll be interesting to see if Emerson's numbers are reflected elsewhere when we start getting lots of polls again.

[The Mikado]

I'm not saying "toss it," I'm saying that his best poll is the next in line to fall off the average, and that his average is going to significantly decrease once it does. That's the way rolling averages work. You've been watching RCP for over a decade just like I have, you know why there are all those wild swings...when a poll that's really good for or bad for a candidate falls off the average.

[The Mikado]

I think, as most here probably do, that the MSM is vastly underestimated Bernie's base, especially in a fractured field. In poll after poll, Sanders drastically leads with voters who are sure of their candidate preference. His campaign this time around is much better run than his 2016 campaign, and they have much more popular surrogates this time who will swing votes.

How fractured is the field, really? By mid-February we'll probably be down to half a dozen candidates, by March three or four. Results in the low twenties, or even in the mid twenties, aren't going to win in a four way race, and certainly not in a three way race.

The field is fractured enough that you could win pluralities with 35-40% support, sure. Not with 20-25%.

[The Mikado]

 Bernie has just gotten to second place on the RCP and he performed well enough at the last debate.

That's based entirely on the Emerson poll, though. We've been in a bit of a polling drought, and probably that'll last through next week? It'll be interesting to see if Emerson's numbers are reflected elsewhere when we start getting lots of polls again.

I get that this post is pretty dated but Sanders is indeed ahead of Warren in almost every major poll now.

That said, Emerson continues to produce stronger numbers for Sanders than other polls.

Let's see what the average looks like now that the Emerson poll has fallen off.



Oh, Bernie Sanders is exactly back where he was before his "surge" that was solely contained in one poll.

He is back in second, but that's due to Warren's decline, not due to any increase in his support.

[The Mikado]

Iowa can't come soon enough. This runup is awful.