Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[The Mikado]

Judging from the series Shtisel, there Haredim all seem to smoke tobacco like crazy. What is the religious justification behind tobacco = good; cannabis = bad???

It's not tobacco good, cannabis bad, it's both are OK but, as the Israeli posters have pointed out, making a big point out of being pro-legalization as one of your big issues is probably a sign that you're not really into the pious Haredi lifestyle.

What the earlier posters are saying is that a Haredi voter might have no objection to weed being legal and even see no reason to view smoking weed as incompatible with Halakhic religious Law, but someone like Feiglin who goes around making pot his #1 focus in his public appearances sure seems suspiciously secular in his chosen priorities.

[The Mikado]

Labour updates:
* Former Mossad head Dani Yatom sent a SMS to voters that he's planning on running. I doubt he has a silver of a chance.
* Amir Peretz continues flip flopping on the issue of a primary, and is now pivoting to support an open primary for leader AND list, allegedly as part of an alliance with former MK Eitan Cabel.
* Ehud Barak is looking like this election's wildcard. According to Channel 2, he's trying to form a new party with figures like former IDF Chief Gadi Isenkot, Tzipi Livni, former liberal Likud Minister Dan Meridor and retired general Yair Golan. He's hoping to use this party to unite the entire center-left. He's also negotiating with Amir Peretz and Itzik Shmuli to cooperate with Labour. Could this mean Shaffir is down in the internal polls and these two are the frontrunners? Maybe, I hope not.

In Meretz: MK Ilan Gilon officially endorsed former MK Nitsan Horovits, making it clear that he's part of that camp.

Israel needs another center left party as much as a person needs a stroke or heart attack.

This is a terrible, terrible idea.

[The Mikado]

Bagel, less posting, more reading. Your posts are so ill-informed that you actually make Famous Mortimer look like a decent poster able to effectively score points off of you, and that is a VERY bad sign for anyone.

[The Mikado]

No, this is just another example of why an election fought on religious issues is an unmitigated disaster for the Israeli right.

I believe it when I see it. Just wait for the next poll that has the combined right at 64 and Likud on par with B&W.

Such a poll would likely be a disaster for Netanyahu. Lieberman's cohort would be at, what, 6-8 seats? That'd put Netanyahu even more underwater than he was last election.

[The Mikado]

Here is a short election compass tool from Channel 12:

https://electionsvote.mako.co.il

I had

79% Democratic Camp
76% Joint List (for whom I am taking my little k8ds to volunteer tomorrow morning)
67% Labor-Gesher

You're volunteering for the Joint List?

I mean, I know that there are Jews in Hadash, but very, very few.

[The Mikado]

Bagel, whatever you're doing, just stop please.  This thread has been good for months, let's not ruin it on the big day.

[The Mikado]

If I am Gantz, this is what I do: approach the Haredi party leaders. Tell them that I want to create a government with Labour-Gesher, the Democratic Camp and themselves, a government inclusive and considerate for the interests of large Israeli minorities like the Haredim and the Arabs. And this is what I'd offer: a new contract for the relations of religion and state in Israel, wherein we completely give up trying to conscript the Haredi population, make sure they get the funding to keep living their way of life, and stop trying to ram down things they don't want into their education system, instead talking together to find ways to help Haredi students start their lives with equal opportunity. In exchange, we create a new status quo- civil marriage, a conversion reform that will help Russian immigrants, more equality for other sects of Judaism, and letting seculars live their lives by allowing public transportation and markets in Shabbat in secular areas. Live and let live.

I'd tell Deri and Litzman that they can take this chance and help me lead a government which also accepts the very reasonable and important demands of Ayman Odeh to improve the life quality of Arabs in exchange for outside support from the Joint List, and which leads a serious peace process to ensure a Jewish and democratic future. Either take this chance, or I'll eventually create a liberal secular government with Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu, where what I described will happen anyway, but so will also the conscription of Haredim and intervention in their education system. Choose your poison.

Would Lapid go for that? I'd imagine that sort of move would threaten to tear Blue-White apart.

[The Mikado]

KL is now playing five-dimensional chess about giving Netanyahu the first chance at forming a government. This is getting downright surreal.

Wild gamble and not worth the risk.

100%. It'd turn the game around from Blue and White trying to break Likud into Likud trying to break Blue and White.

[The Mikado]

Likud are insisting on maintaining their 55 right bloc and say Gantz should bring his 44 with.

A 99MK government consisting of everyone from Smotric to Meretz would be a new definition of dysfunctional

So a government consisting of everyone but the Joint List and...Yisrael Beiteinu. I'm sure Lieberman will LOVE that proposal.

[The Mikado]

So Bibi's going completely scorched earth on the Joint List? So much so that Lapid compared him to Baruch Goldstein?

Gotta say, maybe just distance, but the more Bibi trashes Ayman Odeh, the more I find myself liking Ayman Odeh.

[The Mikado]

Do we think the electorate will punish Lieberman for Election 3? It's clearly going to mostly be his fault if people have to vote a third time.

Do you all think Yamina will reform for the election, or will Bennet's crew just permanently join Likud and leave the rest of Yamina a rump party again?

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1199005606071472128

So Bibi has to give away four portfolios he's been hoarding? Can he bribe some of his wavering people to stay on board with these?

[The Mikado]

If this crisis ends eventually, you all should write new rules about interim governments. It is insane that the guy who has been trying unsuccessfully since April across two elections to form a government is still Prime Minister.

[The Mikado]

So Bibi is getting another round of government forming if this goes through? And it'll go no better than the last one. This is a really weird maneuver.

That said, if it turns out that this whole thing was a play by Lieberman to get far more sway in a right wing government (8 out of 63 this time rather than 5 out of 65 in April), it'll be remarkably devious. Though you'd think if that was the plan he'd have revealed his cards way earlier.