TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[The Mikado]

Why has nobody mentioned Rafael Anchia. He seems like a very strong candidate, maybe even stronger than Beto. Am I missing something?

Literally never heard of him. Who is he?

He's a Dallas-area state legislator who has been pegged as a rising star. Represents the Hispanic parts of West Dallas. The expectation has been that if/when Dallas gets an extra minority sink district in the House after redistricting, it'll be his.

[The Mikado]

I know he’s not popular on this former but about Cuellar? I could definitely see him winning if Cornyn is primaried by a nutcase

Cuellar has no positive name recognition outside of Laredo and, to a lesser extent, the rest of South Texas.

He's also, um...very Laredo, and that's not necessarily a good thing.

[The Mikado]

Hegar outperformed Clinton by 10 points and I think had the same PERFORMANCE as Beto. She should consider it and would be a solid candidate due to her being a female,military vet, and relatively young,with great charisma,and great fundraising ability.

Not sure if she should waste her star on a likely second loss in a Senate run. She should try  again for TX-31 and scare Carter into retirement. I doubt the Austin suburbs are going to be gettting any redder anytime soon

yeah she could and if she wins she probably scares LLoyd Dogget too who will 100% lose against her   If the GOP likely has the chance to gerrymander and makes an Austin Sink district(They would be suicidal not to)

Lloyd Doggett will retire at some point, guy's been around forever. But Travis County's insane growth   rate (could easily be at 1.3 million by next census, from 1 million in 2010) puts Travis County at the cusp of having almost two Congressional districts in it, or, more likely, one Congressional District (replacing TX-35) taking up about half of Travis with a bunch of GOP districts nibbling away at the rest of it. Kicking TX-35 out of Bexar is going to have effects down there, as well. Bexar County isn't booming as insanely much as Travis is, but it's still growing faster than the state average, and a big chunk of central San Antonio getting kicked out of TX-35 is going to draw TX-20 deeper into downtown and leave a bunch of its outlying stuff up for grabs and...it's too late to continue down this thought rabbit hole for me.



Let's just leave it at this: making TX-35 from this monstrosity into an Austin sink is going to destabilize the map in San Antonio.

[The Mikado]

Cornyn preparing Squadrists to roam around the countryside breaking DSA heads open, suppressing Socialism just like his hero.

[The Mikado]

Could Wendy Davis run for TX-24 if Castro goes for Senate? I recall her former district being around the area, unless I'm mistaken?

It's around the area, yes, but there's very little overlap. Mostly a different part of Tarrant County.

https://tlc.texas.gov/redist/pdf/historical_senate/s_2002_2010.pdf

The map she was elected under (she was district 10 in that map)

https://tlc.texas.gov/redist/pdf/senate/map.pdf

The way Senate District 10 looks now.

https://tlc.texas.gov/redist/pdf/congress/map.pdf

TX Congressional map.

Note that her old Senate district is mostly Fort Worth and suburbs to the south, with one arm reaching up into the Mid Cities (area between Dallas and Fort Worth). TX-24 is solidly based in the Mid Cities and doesn't extend into Fort Worth at all.

Wendy Davis was even on the Fort Worth City Council before she was in the State Senate. She's a Fort Worth area candidate, not a Mid Cities one.

[The Mikado]

if i'm Chuck Schumer - i'd be calling up henry cuellar to ask him to run

The hell? Cuellar has no support or name recognition, really, outside of the Valley.

[The Mikado]

Forget "probably," Cuellar would be a catastrophe for urban Dem turnout, and he doesn't have any unusual support with Hispanic Dems outside of the Laredo area.

[The Mikado]

YMMV, but after following the 2018 elections closely, O'Rourke seems like the only candidate in that batch with a strong personal appeal. There were others who ran out of a unique political niche (Sinema) or who ran particularly strong campaigns (Abrams), but Texas was the only contest where it seemed like no other candidate could have done so well.

Eh. I don't think any Republican other than Rick Scott was going to knock off Bill Nelson that year. It took Scott's own goodwill from his hurricane management in 2017 to really put him over the edge.

[The Mikado]

God why didn't Castro run? Probably because the slime at the DSCC pushed him to not run so they could run a mushy middle dem like Hegar instead. Ugh

Still will be very competitive, toss-up

Castro didn't run because he dropped out of the Presidential race after the filing deadline had passed because he was that insistent on his stupid vanity bid for President.

He wouldn't have won the primary anyway.

[The Mikado]

It would be hilarious if Hegar didn't make the runoff.