Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[The Mikado]

Idk how many times I have to say this but Trump's negative number is NOT the ceiling it is for most candidates. On Election Day 2016 he had a 61% disapproval rating in Wisconsin, but won almost 20% of those who disapproved of him.

No doubt, but Trump (favorability 38% on Election Day) was running against Hillary Clinton (favorability 41% on Election Day). A less polarizing Dem than Clinton wouldn't have as much crossover.

[The Mikado]

I think that if you assume President Trump is at 40 +/- 3, you'll pretty much have been right for this whole presidency.

[The Mikado]

Trudeau's latest approval rating was 40 approve, 56 disapprove from Angus Reid.

http://angusreid.org/federal-issues-march2018/

Hope that helps.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/978363200910577664

CNN Has him at 42/56.

28% Strongly Approve, 46% Strongly Disapprove.

[The Mikado]

I didn’t realize reagan’s Approval ratings were kinda stinky in 82

How didn’t dems at least manage to win 2 or 3 other states in 84?

Other thing people aren't really mentioning is that the 1970s economic downturn continued straight through 1981 and 1982. The big economic boom of the 1980s really starts in 1983-1984, which was perfect timing for Reagan to pull that "Morning in America" stunt for his reelection bid.

[The Mikado]

In the Morning Consult Poll,

Gen Z

Approve: 19%
Disapprove: 75%

#ConservativeGenZ

A surprisingly huge gap between them and millennials, one that doesn't really exist between the Millennials and Gen X.

Though honestly it seems that these "Gen Z" people in the poll are mostly the youngest millennials.

You have to draw the line between generations somewhere and 1996/97 is generally accepted as the dividing line

So with these 14 year ‘generations’ we already have 7/8 year old post gen z’ers?

Yeah. 2009 seems like a good place to start the most recent generation, because there's an actual big shift in population patterns due to the baby bust that started with the recession. That's a pretty major shift that marks that cohort as different to the 2000s babies.

[The Mikado]

Trump only won Michigan 47.2 to 47.0. Michigan was pretty much in "fluke" territory, unlike, say, Pennsylvania, and was lot at least partially because the people of Michigan didn't think they were living in a swing state, so you get the outsized third party vote share and low voter turnout you get when the race "doesn't matter." I'm far more confident about MI coming home than any other Obama->Trump state.

[The Mikado]

This is '02 all over again.

Guess what? It isn't.

Moderately good economy, popular incumbent with his base, foreign policy earthquakes (Korea), divided opposition with no clue how to primary correctly (Kara Eastman fans, I'm looking at you), and voilà. Muh Russia has run its course.  

Trump isn't popular are you high? Also how dare you compare North Korea to 9/11

He is with his base, and they are motivated in ways polls can’t even measure. Didn’t Nate Silver have Hillary at 99% to win? Didn’t they have to uncall states 2016 election night due to the surge ofvotes in the rural areas?

Also, if someone asked me 15 years ago if Korea would ever be in talks, I’d’ve told them it was up there with pigs taking flight. This is the Berlin Wall of our generation.

You'd have been that shocked in 2003, when there was a very highly-publicized inter-Korean talks in 2000 that led to Kim Dae-Jung of South Korea getting the Nobel Peace Prize? Why?

EDIT: I also forgot about the 2007 inter-Korean summit with President Roh and Kim Jong-il. This is the third time around the bend for this stuff.

[The Mikado]

Worth keeping in mind, in broad outline:

2012: Obama gets ~66 million votes to Romney's ~61 million votes. Obama carries every swing state except NC.
2016: Clinton gets ~66 million votes to Trump's ~63 million votes. Trump carries most of the swing states, some by whopping margins like Ohio, but most by 1-2 points. Only swing state he doesn't carry is NH, narrowly, by under half a %.

Trump's support is a castle of sand with numerous vulnerabilities, and even a minor Dem overperformance of Clinton would put him in serious trouble in any number of physical areas. He won Florida by 1.2%, for example, pretty much solely on the basis of a massive surge of turnout and swamping Romney's totals in GOP parts of the state even as Clinton overperformed Obama elsewhere. A relatively minor cut to the motivation of Trump's base in FL puts him under water there, and FL is huge and massively important.

Trump won Michigan by 0.2% of the vote in an election where Michigan was (obviously wrongly) considered a safe D state with a large third party vote, a lot of whom wouldn't have voted third party in a state that was going to be close. Trump coupled a real surge vs Romney in rural MI with low Dem turnout in that state and high Johnson votes to produce a perfect storm to win that state by the narrowest of margins. With the Democratic Party taking MI seriously and voters knowing that it isn't safe to vote third party there, I think Trump will have a tricky time trying to hold MI, even if his heightened performance in rural MI stays true in 2020. He won MI 47.2 to 47.0. I could easily see a scenario where he loses it 49-48, where he doesn't lose any support at all and even marginally improves from 2016.

[The Mikado]

I seem to remember Bill Clinton getting 370 EV's out of 43% of the NPV. Say what you want, but winning a presidential election despite 57% of voters voting against you was a raw miscarriage of democracy...much more so than 2000 or 2016. I'll be creating a thread on this soon.

Hey, if you're proposing a national top-two style runoff Presidential election like France does, I'm all for that and think it's the most reasonable way of doing a Presidential election. But Constitutional Amendments are hard.

[The Mikado]

Other day I get a call from a poll. They ask me "what is your birth year?" I say 1987, and they say "that's all the questions we have at this time, have a nice day" and hang up.

Seemed a bit odd, because I'm no longer a youth voter by any reasonable definition (I'm neither in the 18-24 or 18-29 slots that are usually associated with young people).

[The Mikado]

Colorado: PPP, June 27-28, 608 registered voters

Approve 44
Disapprove 52

GCB: D 45, R 40

Is a 5 point lead in the GCB in CO enough to leave Coffman worried? He won by 9 in his district at the same time Clinton won his district by 9 (and won statewide by 5).

[The Mikado]

Is twenty42's argument really that America's better off now than it was in the middle of the biggest economic meltdown since 1929, a time when people legitimately thought that the entire global economy would collapse and we'd end up living Mad Max, and which actually resulted in an economic downturn so severe we're only now recovering from it a decade later...and that being better off than that is the bar for success?