could Julian Castro win statewide in 2014?

[The Mikado]

Absolutely not.  (I assume you're talking about governor, but it applies to all statewide races). 

[The Mikado]

No.

The Democrats haven't won a meaningful statewide race in Texas since... 1990?  They've run good candidates against weak republican candidates and still lost by a million votes.

1994, but yeah.  Democrats have lost every statewide office in 1998 onwards, and there's no chance for 2014 to buck that pattern.

[The Mikado]

Big city mayor is no position to run for Governor (or anything else) of Texas from.  Say his name recognition allows him to go from the usual 50-50 result in Bexar County to a 53-47 or whatever: that's not going to tip anything.  The formula of 60+ in Travis, ~58% in Dallas, ~53% in Bexar, tying in Harris, and landsliding in the Valley and El Paso is a recipe for 43-44% of the vote and not a vote more.  To get any closer than that in TX you need to cut into either the white suburbanites or the white rural voters, and there's no shot at either as long as Obama' president.