How would CDU/CSU be doing in the polls right now with a different Chancellor candidate?

[Middle-aged Europe]

At this point I'd say that probably everyone on that list would have done at least slightly better, but only with Merkel and Söder doing significantly better.

By now, Laschet has turned out to be a gaffe machine and a political opportunist without any convictions of his own. This Monday he said with regards to the situation in Afghanistan that "2015 must not repeat itself". After this was met with widespread criticism as to why this his top priority in the current situation he quickly switched it to explicitly giving his GUARANTEE that he's going to get ALL former Afghan employees of German agencies out of there, plus human and womens' rights activists as well as journalists (Merkel's more honest stance on the issue is: yes, but unfortunately this is no longer completely in our hands).

Not that Söder is necessarily much different in that regard, but at least he executes his opportunism more competently and with greater instinct. Merz has the tendency to shoot himself in the foot by saying things that had been part of the (conservative) political mainstream about twenty years ago, but at least this is balanced out a bit by said statements being popular among the CDU's right flank. Laschet's doctrine of "what convictions shall I hold today?" is popular with no one anymore, because everyone knows it's a fake.