French presidential election, 2022

[Middle-aged Europe]

What these polling numbers might do however, is start to raise alarm among the big crowd of people who have so far indicated that they won't vote in the second round. Especially since the polling is still indicating record breaking abstention, which probably is the biggest question mark around the numbers we are seeing at this point.

Because, for all an angry and disillusioned left wing voter can comfort themselves in a second round abstention when the polling is 55-45, when its 52-48 then you have to start asking yourselves some serious questions.

All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The results of the 1st round were at least of such a nature that I didn't suffer an immediate heart attack from it. Thanks French persons.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What happens if LePen loses? Who has the upper hand going into the final round?

You mean if she only finishes third tonight?

I think all the polling data of the past showed that Macron was usually much stronger against Melenchon than against Le Pen.

[Middle-aged Europe]

France's two rivals for the presidency have traded accusations after a woman was manhandled for protesting against far-right candidate Marine Le Pen's ties to Russia's Vladimir Putin.

The protester was dragged along the floor after she held up a heart-shaped sign showing Ms Le Pen meeting the Russian leader in 2017.

Hitting back at critics, Ms Le Pen said people should be outraged that election press conferences could be disrupted.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61105322

[Middle-aged Europe]

Macron seems to have the momentum for now. Just don't blow it by getting cocky or something. Let the media debate whether Le Pen would sell out the country to Putin (French interests my ass).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ipsos poll:

https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1514976722202112000?cxt=HHwWgMC9navTo4...

That's Macron's best run-off poll number (against Le Pen) since a OpinionWay-Kéa poll from 26–29 March.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Haven't really been paying attention, but why is Macron trading at 90+% in betting markets?  Like, obviously he's got a lead, but I thought it was high single digits?

Macron has been constantly moving away from Le Pen for the past one and a half weeks now, so he definitely has a momentum.

The 56.5% he got in the Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll today was his best polling number since about two weeks before the first round.

Could end up with ca. 60% in the run-off if he outperforms in roughly the same manner he did back in 2017.

[Middle-aged Europe]

BFMTV/Elabe poll on who was most convincing in the debate:

59% Macron
39% Le Pen

That looks suspiciously similar to an actual election result that should be expected now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

FOREIGN INTERFERENCE! Scholz, Sanchez, and Costa endorse Macron unendorse Le Pen in joint editorial for Le Monde:

https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2022/04/21/nous-avons-besoin-d-une-france-qui-defende-nos-valeurs-europeennes-communes-plaident-les-chefs-de-gouvernement-portugais-espagnol-et-allemand_6123086_3232.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

And Macron continues his climb... this his best number against Le Pen since a 58%/42% from the same pollster from March 26.


https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517188639524069379

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517467333454876674?s=20&t=XHaWp9qRB...


Also a 53/47 odaxa poll, which is no change from their last numbers, seven days ago. Their projected abstention is much lower than anyone else.

Final Yougov. No nice voter movement chart like last time, but the transfer percentages are similar:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1517458617095569408?s=20&t=rqO1oqGxIDE9Ikv...

Macron is basically two touchdowns ahead with a two minute warning. They just need to not fumble the ball twice over the course of 4 downs.

Elmo is in awe of these numbers

[Middle-aged Europe]

AtlasIntel, the only polling firm to have ever shown a lead for Le Pen in the run-off, is back. But even they have Macron improving his numbers:

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517522363310505984

[Middle-aged Europe]

Dooomers gonna doom.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Given the outcome of the presidential election I'd say France and the EU live to fight another day, although with Le Pen's results in mind the sword of Damocles continues to hang above their heads.

It's problematic for a democracy that the executive and the legislative branch are so thoroughly dominated by a single political party on a seemingly permanent basis, while any meaningful opposition consists almost entirely of far-right and left-wing populist parties. That sounds a bit like Russia except that in France the election results are at least not rigged. In any case, France needs better opposition.

Speaking of Russia, I think the importance that Putin has failed to gain any sort of a foothold within Western Europe yesterday can't be stressed enough.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Given the outcome of the presidential election I'd say France and the EU live to fight another day, although with Le Pen's results in mind the sword of Damocles continues to hang above their heads.

It's problematic for a democracy that the executive and the legislative branch are so thoroughly dominated by a single political party on a seemingly permanent basis, while any meaningful opposition consists almost entirely of far-right and left-wing populist parties. That sounds a bit like Russia except that in France the election results are at least not rigged. In any case, France needs better opposition.

Speaking of Russia, I think the importance that Putin has failed to gain any sort of a foothold within Western Europe yesterday can't be stressed enough.

I share some of your toughts about Europe and the democracy. However, are you really tryng to establish a comparison between French and Russian politics? Is LREM equivalent to United Russia,  RN to the LDPR and LFI to the CPRF?

Also, I don't share the parallels that some people draw between far-right and leftwing populisms in Western Europe. In Russia the Putin's party, the LDPR and the communists share a staunch social reactionarism, contrary to progressive causes such as LGBT rights. In Western Europe far-right populists favor policies contrary to the the rights of migrants and other minorities, while leftwing populist parties usually favor inclusive policies. I wouldn't say LFI represents a risk for essential democratic values, despite I don't find Mélenchon pleasant at a personal level and I'm more Europeanist than him

It's clear that Macron doesn't run an authoritarian regime and nor will his presidency will become one. Any French party is probably also less extreme than any of their Russian "equivalents" you mentioned.

And yet, and I think that's the point I tried to make, it's clear that France currently resembles a dominant-party system with EM in charge and only extremist or populist parties challenging this dominance. This arguably leads to a situation where you need to vote for extremists (and one day they could very well end up in power that way) in order to vote against the powers that be.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Given the outcome of the presidential election I'd say France and the EU live to fight another day, although with Le Pen's results in mind the sword of Damocles continues to hang above their heads.

It's problematic for a democracy that the executive and the legislative branch are so thoroughly dominated by a single political party on a seemingly permanent basis, while any meaningful opposition consists almost entirely of far-right and left-wing populist parties. That sounds a bit like Russia except that in France the election results are at least not rigged. In any case, France needs better opposition.

Speaking of Russia, I think the importance that Putin has failed to gain any sort of a foothold within Western Europe yesterday can't be stressed enough.

I share some of your toughts about Europe and the democracy. However, are you really tryng to establish a comparison between French and Russian politics? Is LREM equivalent to United Russia,  RN to the LDPR and LFI to the CPRF?

Also, I don't share the parallels that some people draw between far-right and leftwing populisms in Western Europe. In Russia the Putin's party, the LDPR and the communists share a staunch social reactionarism, contrary to progressive causes such as LGBT rights. In Western Europe far-right populists favor policies contrary to the the rights of migrants and other minorities, while leftwing populist parties usually favor inclusive policies. I wouldn't say LFI represents a risk for essential democratic values, despite I don't find Mélenchon pleasant at a personal level and I'm more Europeanist than him

It's clear that Macron doesn't run an authoritarian regime and nor will his presidency will become one. Any French party is probably also less extreme than any of their Russian "equivalents" you mentioned.

And yet, and I think that's the point I tried to make, it's clear that France currently resembles a dominant-party system with EM in charge and only extremist or populist parties challenging this dominance. This arguably leads to a situation where you need to vote for extremists (and one day they could very well end up in power that way) in order to vote against the powers that be.

I don't really think this is true at all. Macron's party is very weak outside of Macron himself, and it's not clear at all that it will survive him leaving office. Far more likely is that Macron himself is what is taking up a lot of the air, and once he's out of the picture the other non-extreme parties will reassert themselves. The 2027 presidential election has the potential to be extremely multi-cornered with the top two perhaps having lower shares than even in 2002.

Let's hope so... but until that happens it will come down to the situation described by me for the next five years.