🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Middle-aged Europe]

There is now another party with a member of theirs in the Bundestag: Former Social Democrat Marco Bülow has switched parties and is as of now a member of the satire party DIE PARTEI, which is already represented in the European Parliament with two seats.
As the reasons for his party change he cited lobbying, financial scandals and moreover willful neglect of environmental protection and insufficient support for caregivers (a yuuuuuuuge issue in Germany for over a decade now, especially since the outbreak of the Corona pandemic) within the SPD.

https://twitter.com/marcobuelow/status/1328687138452480000

Bülow had already left the SPD in 2018 and he had been an Independent member of the Bundestag since then.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Baerbock (Greens) more and more in trouble ...

https://www.derbund.ch/auf-einmal-macht-baerbock-fehler-258960547400

Problems with properly declaring 30.000€ in bonus payments, questions about her Masters degree without acquiring a Bachelor degree, a nasty jab at Habeck (her co-party leader) whom she criticized as a „farmer“, while she’s an „expert in international law“ (well, without the Bachelor of course) ... Habeck has far more experience than her btw and has written 16 books and has a doctorate.

It's a very curious thing though... for about three years there has been no significant scandal involving either Baerbock or the Greens. But now, a new scandal seems to surface every four days or so, while the CDU looks squeaky clean.

Well, maybe it's not that curious. Since 2009 this is the fourth Bundestag election in a row where I happen to work for or with the Greens in some capacity and by now I'm recognizing the patterns that have been repeating themselves every single time. As soon as the election campaign starts, BILD and FOCUS are packing out the big guns. And even if some of the "scandals" have basis they seem to have been collected over the past couple years with the apparent intention of a timed release during the election year.

But let's gets through the media-type events that Tender has mentioned above.

- Failing to declare 30.000€ 25.000 € in (primarily Christmas) bonus payments. This one is the objectively worst of the accusations and probably the first one where I would concede that it has some grounds to be concerned, outraged or whatever. While not a total career-ending catastrophe, it is certainly led to Baerbock's worst week since she became Chancellor-candidate (and maybe party chair as well). Normally I would be a lot more outraged about it myself, but since it is obviously part of a coordinated media campaign which also happens to contain a lot of bullsh**t stories it sort of gets cancelled out by the noise where your humble narrator is concerned.

- "Questions about her master's degree without acquiring a bachelor's degree":
Nothingburger artificially inflated by the aforementioned media. She obtained a Vordiplom in Germany to get a master's degree in England, because at that time bachelor's degree were still uncommon in our country. Completely standard procedure back then to count a German Vordiplom as a substitute for a bachelor. If there have ever been any "questions" about it, there are obviosuly by now resolved... a week later.

-  "A nasty jab at Habeck (her co-party leader) whom she criticized as a „farmer“, while she’s an „expert in international law“ (well, without the Bachelor of course)":
I'd rather call it a lame joke. More importantly, the video of that joint interview is already a couple of years old. I wonder why it happens to penetrate the Internet now... and to carry on from the paragraph above, Baerbock holds a Master of Laws in Public International Law from the London School of Economics, so trying to continue to ride that horse borders on deliberately spreading misinformation IMO.

- "Habeck has far more experience than her btw and has written 16 books and has a doctorate.":
But have you forgotten already that Habeck literally wrote in a book once that Germany makes him puke ?? (at least that would be one of the main stories right now had he become the Greens' Chancellor-candidate)

The following blog has a good (albeit German-language) editorial on the new "Baerbock is a corrupt, Stalinist devil" phenomenon. It starts out as a satire of the BILD's (and CDU/CSU's) discrediting strategies before turning to a more serious analysis of recent events. Notably it also goes out of its way in pointing out that Baerbock has been treated rather fairly by the FDP so far - primarily it's the CSU and to a lesser extent the CDU which generously picks up any fake (or half-fake) news and runs with it:

https://www.volksverpetzer.de/satire/baerbock-muesli/

Personally, I'm counting the days until Baerbock is finally accused of running a child slavery ring out of a pizzeria in Berlin or something.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Now that that SPD is clearly overtaking the Greens and Scholz has such skyrocket Ing popularity it seems inevitable to me that you’re going to start seeing a big shift of Green votes to the SPD. A lot of people who have been telling pollsters they would vote Green in recent years are left of centre former SPD voters any ways. A month from now I’ll bet the Greens will be polling at 13-14%

Actually, if you take a good look at the polls of recent days and weeks you see that the Greens always remain relatively stable at 18-22%, while the CDU dropped and the SPD gained, indicating a recent shift of voters from CDU to SPD (probably the same kind of more or less "undecided" voters who orignally went from the CDU to the Greens in late April, giving the Greens their temporary boost to roughly (?) 26% before returning to the CDU following the Baerbock scandals/before the Laschet gaffes).

In other words, the "soft Merkel support" block (which also happens to be moderately pro-social justice/pro-climate protection/pro-refugees, given Merkel's stances) is up for grabs, and Greens and SPD are fighting over it while the CDU is trying to maintain control.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What's totally crazy is the idea of the SPD winning the Chancellorship with just 21% of the vote.

Thanks Laschet.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is the gap between the FDP and the Green to big to reconcile for a traffic light coalition?

I don't think that the gap between FDP and Greens is bigger than the one between FDP and SPD.

I mean FDP and SPD would have some issues with each other over social welfare, while Greens and SPD would primarily have some issues over climate protection.

Greens and FDP would legalize weed together though. In fact, a traffic light would probably the most pro-weed government in German history.

[Middle-aged Europe]

However, for some reason the FDP would still prefer the SPD as chancellor party as opposed to the Greens. Their General Secretary Volker Wissing, who twice negotiated the RLP-trafficlight coalition in 2016 and 2021 recently stated he can't imagine such a coalition under a Green chancellor. Now if the polling numbers hold up, it won't come to that.

I think that's mainly because the FDP doesn't want to validate or acknowledge the Greens' claim on the Chancellorship. At least not before the election that is. Keep in mind that the Greens currently have fewer seats than the FDP in the Bundestag and as traditional competitors for the 3rd place in elections they'd like to keep it that way.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Congrats, Laschet.


https://www.dw.com/en/german-election-olaf-scholz-pressured-over-money-laundering-probe/a-59147944

[Middle-aged Europe]

Any chance of an SDP-FDP-Linke coalition? That would be my preference

It's about as likely as AOC endorsing Donald Trump in 2024.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Polls close in about 3 hours from now, right?

6:00 CEST

[Middle-aged Europe]

Which coalition is now most likely to happen? My reading is FDP wants with the Union and Grune with SPD. One of them has to blink, potentially in exchange for lots of concessions?

I find it kind of hilarious Mr. Lashet hasn't resigned after losing 9 pts. CDU was just strong because of Merkel and they just expected to win, didn't they?

I'd say SPD-Greens-FDP is somewhat more likely, but who knows. Unlike 2017 the arguments for Jamaica are less strong because the CDU is now weaker than the SPD and - directly connected to that - Laschet is way more unpopular than Merkel (or Scholz). A case could be made that Traffic light must happen to prevent the ascension of what could arguably be Germany's most incompetent post-war Chancellor. I guess the FDP knows that too, that's why they started to sound slightly less adamant about Jamaica today. Of course there's always the wildcard scenario that Laschet gets terminated and the "Jamaica with Söder" plot twist occurs. However, they also seem to be some more realistic voices in the CDU who argue that the party needs to go into the opposition now.

In case of traffic light, SPD and Greens would of course need to make a lot of concessions to the FDP despite the fact (or shall we rather say "because") that the Lindner party is the weakest one in such a government... kind of a reverse of the 2017 Jamaica negotiations where the CDU was willing to make A LOT of concessions to Greens which in turn led to the FDP blowing up the talks. This essentially means no new taxes/social welfare and Lindner is the new finance minister.

Given all these complexities, FDP and Greens have agreed to do something entirely new... they'll meet first without either SPD or CDU.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ellen Demuth, deputy leader of the CDU caucus in the Rhineland-Palatinate state parliament, and Marcus Mündlein, head of the Young Union in Saxony, have both openly called for Laschet's resignation.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to  a new post-election poll, 62% want Scholz as Chancellor and 16% want Laschet. Which means at least a third of the CDU's own voters don't support a Laschet Chancellorship at this point.

This either puts pressure on the FDP to join a trafficlight coalition or on Laschet to resign.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to  a new post-election poll, 62% want Scholz as Chancellor and 16% want Laschet. Which means at least a third of the CDU's own voters don't support a Laschet Chancellorship at this point.

This either puts pressure on the FDP to join a trafficlight coalition or on Laschet to resign.

According to Infratest dimap, FDP supporters prefer Jamaica over traffic light by a 51:41 margin, while Green supporters prefer traffic light by a giant margin (81:16). We'll see if those numbers change during the negotiations.

These numbers of course do not only reflect ideological preferences but also who people believe has the legitimacy and a mandate to govern. Neither Green nor FDP voters would overwhelmingly support Jamaica as long as they are under the impression that Laschet is the CDU's equivalent to Andrea Ypsilanti or Heide Simonis in 2005.

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrea_Ypsilanti
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Schleswig-Holstein_state_election)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Overall, I'm very happy about the election result. I think Lindner's plan is to persuade Baerbock to enter government with his buddy Laschet, but if she's smart, she won't give in to that. I think it's now Scholz's turn to try and form a government.

Btw, as it was reported today by both FAZ and RND there was a super-secret agreement between Baerbock and Habeck in place that if the Greens fall below 17% in the election Habeck gets to be Vice-chancellor in a future government. Apparently, he's in charge now.... perhaps evidenced by the fact that he gave all the important press conferences and TV interviews today.

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/bundestagswahl/bundestagswahl-gruene-wollen-robert-habeck-als-vizekanzler-haben-17557665.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

Overall, I'm very happy about the election result. I think Lindner's plan is to persuade Baerbock to enter government with his buddy Laschet, but if she's smart, she won't give in to that. I think it's now Scholz's turn to try and form a government.

Btw, as it was reported today by both FAZ and RND there was a super-secret agreement between Baerbock and Habeck in place that if the Greens fall below 17% in the election Habeck gets to be Vice-chancellor in a future government. Apparently, he's in charge now.... perhaps evidenced by the fact that he gave all the important press conferences and TV interviews today.

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/bundestagswahl/bundestagswahl-gruene-wollen-robert-habeck-als-vizekanzler-haben-17557665.html

Wouldn't it be a smarter move by Habeck to become governor of Schleswig-Holstein? The Greens are constantly leading in the polls, and Habeck just won his constituency very surprisingly.

The Greens have so far only led in two polls in S-H and that was around the time they also had 26% in federal polls back in May this year.

Also, I doubt that Habeck considers it appealing to go back to the nethers of provincial politics when he has the opportunity of playing in the big league.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So how come Pankow swung to the Greens while places like Treptow stayed Die Linke? Is Pankow really now more gentrified than south east Berlin?

A large part of the borough of Pankow is Prenzlauer Berg and there is probably no Greener region than that. Also, Pankow never really was much of a traditional Left stronghold. Stefan Liebich won the borough three times, but he was also more of a modern/younger Left Party politician and before that it had been a SPD stonghold.

Actually, it's far more baffling that Marzahn-Hellersdorf - which had voted for PDS/Left in every single election since 1990 - went CDU this time. The AfD has cutting hard into the Left's populist vote share there, but it can't be the only explanation.

[Middle-aged Europe]

After a Green-FDP summit had been scheduled for tomorrow, the SPD is starting to get impatient now and demands meetings of all three parties this week.

What's happening in the CDU in the meantime? Dunno... it seems Laschet is busy trying to remain party chairman. Also, there's also a possible fight over the position of the CDU/CSU caucus leader in the Bundestag. Incumbent Ralph Brinkhaus wants to run again, but others have started to argue that this election should at least be postponed.

[Middle-aged Europe]

This is how my precinct in the western parts of Berlin-Friedrichshain voted... old school PDS stronghold that apparently is now dying. Huge swings from Left to SPD with plummeting turnout. All the Left voters stayed at home on Sunday.


Second vote

SPD 31.0% (+13.7 compared to 2017)
Left 20.2% (-17.6)
AfD 12.5% (+0.1)
CDU 11.3% (-4.1)
Greens 10.6% (+3.7)
FDP 5.0% (+0.6)
Animal Protection Party 2.4% (+1.3)


First vote (comparison to 2017 is to whoever was the party's direct candidate back then - in case of SPD, Left, Greens, and AfD they had stayed the same I think)

Cansel Kiziltepe (SPD) 26.6% (+8.6)
Pascal Meiser (Left) 25.6% (-13.4)
Kevin Kratzsch (CDU) 12.1% (-1.0)
Sibylle Schmidt (AfD) 11.6% (-1.0)
Canan Bayram (Greens) 8.9% (-1.2)
Ann Cathrin Riedel (FDP) 5.8% (+3.5)
Martin Sonneborn (Die PARTEI) 3.6% (+0.2)


Turnout: 36.4% (-12.8 )

[Middle-aged Europe]

There's apparently some support within the CDU to make Markus Söder Chancellor of a Jamaica coalition:

https://www.rnd.de/politik/markus-soeder-soll-zu-jamaika-verhandlungen-und-moeglicher-kanzlerwahl-gedraengt-werden-DWJPTJ56VBGGBOLOJD4ZYZHR54.html

Of course, if there's now the same kind of large-scale Laschet vs. Söder power struggle we already had in April this does not bode well for the CDU/CSU's chances to become part of the next government. Greens and FDP probably would not want to hold coalition talks with them at the same time that sh**tshow happens again.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Against the expressed wishes of his party chairman Laschet (who wanted to postpone the ballot in case he needed the position himself as a backup career plan) CDU/CSU caucus leader Ralph Brinkhaus is planning the get re-elected today. This is widely interpreted as sign that nobody in the CDU gives a f**k anymore about what Laschet wants.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Against the expressed wishes of his party chairman Laschet (who wanted to postpone the ballot in case he needed the position himself as a backup career plan) CDU/CSU caucus leader Ralph Brinkhaus is planning the get re-elected today. This is widely interpreted as sign that nobody in the CDU gives a f**k anymore about what Laschet wants.

How’s Laschet gonna be caucus leader if he’s not in the caucus? Did that ever pan out?

Yes, he's a member of the Bundestag now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Laschet and Brinkhaus have made a compromise that Brinkhaus will only be re-elected for a six-month term today.

[Middle-aged Europe]

After a Green-FDP summit had been scheduled for tomorrow, the SPD is starting to get impatient now and demands meetings of all three parties this week.

What's happening in the CDU in the meantime? Dunno... it seems Laschet is busy trying to remain party chairman. Also, there's also a possible fight over the position of the CDU/CSU caucus leader in the Bundestag. Incumbent Ralph Brinkhaus wants to run again, but others have started to argue that this election should at least be postponed.

I wwas thinking about this last night, and I wonder if we could be heading for a certain scenario. FDP/Greens wait for the Union to oust Laschet and then let it be known which person(s) they would agree to as chancellor in Jamaica. The pressure then falls on the Union to concede ground or commit to the opposition. If the former, then the FDP/Greens know the Union is desperate enough to get all types of concessions from, if the latter then the FDP has a justification to present to their voters why the party will enter Traffic Light.

I doubt anyone would gamble on the arrival of a certain set of conditions in that manner. They've got to work with what they have now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tom_nuttall/status/1443086669742317571

https://twitter.com/c_vogt/status/1443093148532715524?s=21

[Middle-aged Europe]

Brace yourselves, we have memes incoming.


https://twitter.com/sasa_s/status/1443105338736136201?s=21