December 19, 2021

[Middle-aged Europe]

That date lies after the regular 2021 election, in which Angela Merkel almost certainly won't run again as Chancellor.

So, she has only a shot at still being Chancellor on that date, if the government formation takes as long in 2021 as it did 2017/18.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I mean, 15 years in a modern democratic country is pretty amazing. Like her/her politics or not.

Considering the length of Adenauer's and Kohl's terms in office, it seems to be a common feature of post-WWII Germany. Stability and continuity is valued above anything else, maybe as a direct result of the ridiculously short-time Chancellors during the tumultuous Weimar Republic (Heinrich Brüning, Weimar's longest-serving continuous Chancellor made it to a little over two years). Personally I think the terms should be a bit shorter, although at the end of the day I'd still prefer 15 years of Merkel over four years of someone like Trump.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Armin Laschet still has at least a 50% (actually closer to 65% imo) chance of becoming next party chairman, due to support from the CDU establishment.

The polls above asked who should become Chancellor-candidate, not who should become CDU chairman and they polled voters of the CDU/CSU, not party members let alone the convention delegates (= party establishment) who will actually vote on the new chairman. And as Hades has already pointed out, these polling numbers are nine months old, with the pandemic and all that's an eternity.

As for who will become Chancellor-candidate: Unfortunately the polls above weren't conducted for a Laschet/Söder two person match-up, so we don't know for sure where all the Merz/Spahn support would go (or whether Spahn's endorsement of Laschet for party chairmanship would also automatically apply for any Cancellor-candidate selection). Obviously, the nomination of a Chancellor-candidate is a much more complex process since not only one, but two distinct political parties are involved. Söder is undoubtedly more popular (among CDU/CSU voters, not necessarily the CDU party establishment) than Laschet or Merz at the moment, but historically speaking the CDU had never fared well with accepting a Chancellor-candidate from their sister party. In addition, Söder has so far ruled out any run for Chancellor himself (which may or may not be just tactical on his part).

[Middle-aged Europe]

You're right about the performance of the two CSU chancellor candidates in the past, but predicting that a CSU would never become chancellor because it has never happened in the past is like predicting that Trump will win the election because he was leading in the polls in the bellwether states of Ohio and Florida. (Btw, we even did already have a chancellor from Bavaria!)

Nobody predicted that. I certainly didn't. My point was that it could explain reservations the CDU establishment might have against nominating a CSU Chancellor-candidate, or at the very least why anti-Söder people within the CDU might use it as an argument for Laschet/Merz/Spahn.

Times have changed, Bavaria's reputation has risen significantly among the citizens north of the Weißwurst equator, and Söder is said to be a competent crisis manager during the corona pandemic. Moreover, compared to Merz, he is at least the lesser of the two evils.

Well, except for that holidaymakers testing scandal incolving Söder's health minister Melanie Huml this summer... granted, Söder seemed to have weathered that one. But it shows how easy it is to potentially fumble the ball on Corona. Anyway, I had already said in my previous post that Söder is undoubtedly more popular among CDU/CSU voters than Laschet or Merz at the moment.

In a Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll from this month, 58% of the respondents said that Söder would be a good chancellor, whereas Merz's favorability ratings (30%) even fell below Spahn's (37%), and his figures approximate to Laschet's (27%) and Röttgen's (25%).

The same what I said in my previous post about polls such as these also applies here. The voters don't choose the CDU/CSU Chancellor-candidate. Most likely, it will be the result of backroom deals within the CDU depending on how much support Söder and whoever the new CDU chair is going to be can garner behind the scenes. Obviously, Söder will use numbers such as these as argument why he should become Chancellor-candidate (provided he runs in the end). But it won't be the only deciding factor in such backroom deals. For instance, as far as his COVID reputation goes, Söder has indeed built himself the reputation of a strong and tough Corona crisis manager, but at the same time Söder has also gotten a reputation of not always being a team player when Bavaria decided on or pushed for restrictions unilaterally or frequently criticized other states' measures this year. CDU brass might wanna have more of a team player.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I understand what you are driving at. Maybe the party officials are really going to elect Laschet to the chairmanship in a backroom deal, ...

Since the new CDU chairman is going to be elected in an open party convention, there won't exactly be a backroom deal here. Of course each candidate will canvass for support among the delegates. But my point was since Laschet is the establishment candidate and and the convention delegates are party establishment this means an advantage for Laschet that isn't reflected in opinion polls of CDU/CSU voters.

... but I can't imagine how they would dare to opt against the most popular Union candidate after the Queen herself when it come to the selection of the chancellorship nominee.

I tried to sum up the possible reasons in my previous posts:

- We don't actually know yet whether Söder wants to run for Chancellor. Granted, it's more than possible that he will in the end with all his previous statements to the contrary merely having been tactical, but we don't know that for certain yet. He at least seems to keep himself the option open of becoming the next Franz Josef Strauß, that is being a very popular long-term Bavarian minister-president who frequently attacks a CDU-led federal government from his safe and comfortable position down south.

- Some in the CDU may have reservations to outsource the Chancellor-candidacy to someone from "another" political party, especially if there are a number of high-profile people within the CDU who would want to become Chancellor themselves.

- There might be reservations within the CDU to give it to the CSU because in the previous two instances that happened the CDU/CSU eventually lost the election (and at the very least this would be one of the arguments brought forward by Laschet supporters as to why their man should be Chancellor-candidate).

- We don't know for certain whom the previous Merz/Röttgen/Spahn support would coalesce around if it ends up a straight Laschet/Söder two-man contest. My guess is that most Merz supporters might go for Söder, while Laschet would end up with the Röttgen/Spahn camp (espcially since Spahn has already formed an alliance with Laschet). It also depends on how good and how fast Laschet would be able to consolidate his position within the CDU once elected chairman. The days and weeks immediately after a Laschet election would be critical. He'd probably receive a bit of a convention/election bump (depending on how decisive the vote for him at the convention would have been), that he then needs to further build into momentum against Söder.

- Söder is seen as a maverick and maybe even a bit of a loose cannon due to his behaviour and the unilateral actions he sometimes had undertaken during the COVID crisis in Bavaria, while Laschet is more regarded as a team player and bridge builder. CDU establishment might be more comfortable with him rather than Söder.

- The COVID pandemic isn't over yet and there's still room for something unpredictable to happen that tarnishes Söder's reputation.

- Unlike the party chairmanship, the Chancellor-candidacy will most likely be decided in backroom deals in which the aforementioned factors might come into play.

All that being said, it's of course quite possible that Söder will indeed become CDU/CSU Chancellor-candidate - and even Germany's next Chancellor - in the end. I'm merely warning against treating him as someone inevitable. I wouldn't count Laschet out yet, although the NRW minister-president isn't exactly inevitable either.

Don't forget, Laschet has also had his scandals, for example his unfair bashing of Romanians and Bulgarians during the Tönnies affair.

Can't really see Laschet getting hurt by that - very minor - scandal. I mean I even forgot that this episode even happened until I read it here now. It's true though that Laschet's reputation had been a bit tarnished by his push to open up society and the economy faster this spring which almost made him look like a mini-Trump/Bolsonaro. Since then I had the impression that he toned down this behaviour though.

The bottom line is that I didn't know if brucejoel99 was talking about the CDU chair or about the Union's nominee for chancellor. I zeroes in on the latter, whereas you fixate on the former.

I wasn't aware that I "fixated" on anything, since I tried to give my assessement on both the CDU chairmanship and CDU/CSU Chancellor-candicacy races.