December 19, 2021

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

If Merkel manages to remain as chancellor until the above-mentioned date, she'll break Helmut Kohl's record as longest-serving head of government of the Federal Republic of Germany.

[Lord Halifax]

If Merkel manages to remain as chancellor until the above-mentioned date, she'll break Helmut Kohl's record as longest-serving head of government of the Federal Republic of Germany.

Bismarck was Chancellor of the German Empire from 21 March 1871 to 20 March 1890, that is the record she needs to beat.

[freefair]

My feeling is that she will have to agree to step down after 2 years as the price for the SPD creating another Grand Coalition. So No, but 14 years would still be amazing

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Bismarck was Chancellor of the German Empire from 21 March 1871 to 20 March 1890, that is the record she needs to beat.

That's why I narrowed the interval down to the Federal Republic of Germany.
But if she really manages to reach that goal, I promise I'm gonna make a second poll that day asking if she will remain as chancellor until November 21, 2024. Promise!

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Toady, Merkel has approached her goal with rapid strides. 🤬

[Middle-aged Europe]

That date lies after the regular 2021 election, in which Angela Merkel almost certainly won't run again as Chancellor.

So, she has only a shot at still being Chancellor on that date, if the government formation takes as long in 2021 as it did 2017/18.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

That date lies after the regular 2021 election, in which Angela Merkel almost certainly won't run again as Chancellor.

So, she has only a shot at still being Chancellor on that date, if the government formation takes as long in 2021 as it did 2017/18.

I'm pretty sure there will be snap elections in the next months. And she will run for a last time, as the CDU doesn't have any alternative.

[Gary J]

Also the date is the day before the expiry of the current US Presidential term.

[brucejoel99]

Also the date is the day before the expiry of the current US Presidential term.

No, the current U.S. presidential term ends at noon on January 20, 2021 (i.e. only 1 day short of 11 months prior to the given date at hand).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

On February 21, 2018, Merkel had been one day longer in office than the Führer, 4,474 days to be exact.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Today is the 15th anniversary of Merkel's chancellorship.
In the picture below, you can see then-President Horst Köhler bestowing the certificate of appointment upon Angela Merkel.
Four German presidents and four U.S. presidents (including President-elect Biden) (will) have coexisted alongside Merkel, while the Iron Lady managed to retain her scepter firmly and tightly in her hand.

https://twitter.com/en_germany/status/1330435860580491266

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, 15 years in a modern democratic country is pretty amazing. Like her/her politics or not.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I mean, 15 years in a modern democratic country is pretty amazing. Like her/her politics or not.

Considering the length of Adenauer's and Kohl's terms in office, it seems to be a common feature of post-WWII Germany. Stability and continuity is valued above anything else, maybe as a direct result of the ridiculously short-time Chancellors during the tumultuous Weimar Republic (Heinrich Brüning, Weimar's longest-serving continuous Chancellor made it to a little over two years). Personally I think the terms should be a bit shorter, although at the end of the day I'd still prefer 15 years of Merkel over four years of someone like Trump.

[Former President tack50]

Given the state of the CDU and how the SPD isn't winning an election any time soon, let's hope she gets another 15 years in office; she is the lesser evil at this point

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Given the state of the CDU and how the SPD isn't winning an election any time soon, let's hope she gets another 15 years in office; she is the lesser evil at this point

She announced two years ago that she would not seek reelection again, neither as chancellor nor as member of parliament. Her successor is likely to be either Bavarian Minister President Markus Söder or the incarnate Montgomery Burns.

[brucejoel99]

Given the state of the CDU and how the SPD isn't winning an election any time soon, let's hope she gets another 15 years in office; she is the lesser evil at this point

She announced two years ago that she would not seek reelection again, neither as chancellor nor as member of parliament. Her successor is likely to be either Bavarian Minister President Markus Söder or the incarnate Montgomery Burns.

What happened to Laschet, Merz, & Röttgen?

[Mike88]

Given the state of the CDU and how the SPD isn't winning an election any time soon, let's hope she gets another 15 years in office; she is the lesser evil at this point

She announced two years ago that she would not seek reelection again, neither as chancellor nor as member of parliament. Her successor is likely to be either Bavarian Minister President Markus Söder or the incarnate Montgomery Burns.

What happened to Laschet, Merz, & Röttgen?

They are still running for the leadership, I believe. The leadership convention has been postponed over and over again due to Covid. It will be held during 2021, but no official date has been announced.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

They are still running for the leadership, I believe. The leadership convention has been postponed over and over again due to Covid. It will be held during 2021, but no official date has been announced.

No joke: Merz is profoundly convinced that the party establishment postponed the convention just in oder to hurt his chances to become party chairman.
He has been committing blunder after blunder anyway since he announced to run for chancellor ... oops ... I mean party chairman, of course. 😜

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What happened to Laschet, Merz, & Röttgen?

Friedrich Merz is the incarnation of Montgomery Burns. It has become a running gag / meme on social media and on satire shows to compare them to each other.
Not only do they look like doppelgangers, they are both extremely wealthy, and they also share the same political beliefs and their evil, malicious and devilish character. 👿

https://twitter.com/rudegmxde1/status/1324208006150709249
As to Laschet and Röttgen: They don't stand any chance of winning. 🙅🏼‍♂️

[brucejoel99]

What happened to Laschet, Merz, & Röttgen?

Friedrich Merz is the incarnation of Montgomery Burns. It has become a running gag / meme on social media and on satire shows to compare them to each other.
Not only do they look like doppelgangers, they are both extremely wealthy, and they also share the same political beliefs and their evil, malicious and devilish character. 👿

https://twitter.com/rudegmxde1/status/1324208006150709249
As to Laschet and Röttgen: They don't stand any chance of winning. 🙅🏼‍♂️

Wasn't the Laschet/Spahn ticket described at the beginning as the favorite to win, though? What happened?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Wasn't the Laschet/Spahn ticket described at the beginning as the favorite to win, though? What happened?

No, not really.
The following multiple-option polls about the favorability of possible chancellor candidates were conducted right after AKK announced in February that she was going to step down as party chairwoman.

All voters:



CDU/CSU voters:



Source: taxpayer-funded news network

[Middle-aged Europe]

Armin Laschet still has at least a 50% (actually closer to 65% imo) chance of becoming next party chairman, due to support from the CDU establishment.

The polls above asked who should become Chancellor-candidate, not who should become CDU chairman and they polled voters of the CDU/CSU, not party members let alone the convention delegates (= party establishment) who will actually vote on the new chairman. And as Hades has already pointed out, these polling numbers are nine months old, with the pandemic and all that's an eternity.

As for who will become Chancellor-candidate: Unfortunately the polls above weren't conducted for a Laschet/Söder two person match-up, so we don't know for sure where all the Merz/Spahn support would go (or whether Spahn's endorsement of Laschet for party chairmanship would also automatically apply for any Cancellor-candidate selection). Obviously, the nomination of a Chancellor-candidate is a much more complex process since not only one, but two distinct political parties are involved. Söder is undoubtedly more popular (among CDU/CSU voters, not necessarily the CDU party establishment) than Laschet or Merz at the moment, but historically speaking the CDU had never fared well with accepting a Chancellor-candidate from their sister party. In addition, Söder has so far ruled out any run for Chancellor himself (which may or may not be just tactical on his part).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Armin Laschet still has at least a 50% (actually closer to 65% imo) chance of becoming next party chairman, due to support from the CDU establishment.

The polls above asked who should become Chancellor-candidate, not who should become CDU chairman and they polled voters of the CDU/CSU, not party members let alone the convention delegates (= party establishment) who will actually vote on the new chairman. And as Hades has already pointed out, these polling numbers are nine months old, with the pandemic and all that's an eternity.

As for who will become Chancellor-candidate: Unfortunately the polls above weren't conducted for a Laschet/Söder two person match-up, so we don't know for sure where all the Merz/Spahn support would go (or whether Spahn's endorsement of Laschet for party chairmanship would also automatically apply for any Cancellor-candidate selection). Obviously, the nomination of a Chancellor-candidate is a much more complex process since not only one, but two distinct political parties are involved. Söder is undoubtedly more popular (among CDU/CSU voters, not necessarily the CDU party establishment) than Laschet or Merz at the moment, but historically speaking the CDU had never fared well with accepting a Chancellor-candidate from their sister party. In addition, Söder has so far ruled out any run for Chancellor himself (which may or may not be just tactical on his part).

I used the February poll because brucejoel99 wanted to know who was the favorite at the beginning of the election campaign.
In that poll, the voters' favorite CxU chancellor candidate was inquired about, but we all know that only a chairman of either party is unavoidably going to become the nominee.
You're right about the performance of the two CSU chancellor candidates in the past, but predicting that a CSU would never become chancellor because it has never happened in the past is like predicting that Trump will win the election because he was leading in the polls in the bellwether states of Ohio and Florida. (Btw, we even did already have a chancellor from Bavaria!)
Times have changed, Bavaria's reputation has risen significantly among the citizens north of the Weißwurst equator, and Söder is said to be a competent crisis manager during the corona pandemic. Moreover, compared to Merz, he is at least the lesser of the two evils.
In a Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll from this month, 58% of the respondents said that Söder would be a good chancellor, whereas Merz's favorability ratings (30%) even fell below Spahn's (37%), and his figures approximate to Laschet's (27%) and Röttgen's (25%).

[Middle-aged Europe]

You're right about the performance of the two CSU chancellor candidates in the past, but predicting that a CSU would never become chancellor because it has never happened in the past is like predicting that Trump will win the election because he was leading in the polls in the bellwether states of Ohio and Florida. (Btw, we even did already have a chancellor from Bavaria!)

Nobody predicted that. I certainly didn't. My point was that it could explain reservations the CDU establishment might have against nominating a CSU Chancellor-candidate, or at the very least why anti-Söder people within the CDU might use it as an argument for Laschet/Merz/Spahn.

Times have changed, Bavaria's reputation has risen significantly among the citizens north of the Weißwurst equator, and Söder is said to be a competent crisis manager during the corona pandemic. Moreover, compared to Merz, he is at least the lesser of the two evils.

Well, except for that holidaymakers testing scandal incolving Söder's health minister Melanie Huml this summer... granted, Söder seemed to have weathered that one. But it shows how easy it is to potentially fumble the ball on Corona. Anyway, I had already said in my previous post that Söder is undoubtedly more popular among CDU/CSU voters than Laschet or Merz at the moment.

In a Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll from this month, 58% of the respondents said that Söder would be a good chancellor, whereas Merz's favorability ratings (30%) even fell below Spahn's (37%), and his figures approximate to Laschet's (27%) and Röttgen's (25%).

The same what I said in my previous post about polls such as these also applies here. The voters don't choose the CDU/CSU Chancellor-candidate. Most likely, it will be the result of backroom deals within the CDU depending on how much support Söder and whoever the new CDU chair is going to be can garner behind the scenes. Obviously, Söder will use numbers such as these as argument why he should become Chancellor-candidate (provided he runs in the end). But it won't be the only deciding factor in such backroom deals. For instance, as far as his COVID reputation goes, Söder has indeed built himself the reputation of a strong and tough Corona crisis manager, but at the same time Söder has also gotten a reputation of not always being a team player when Bavaria decided on or pushed for restrictions unilaterally or frequently criticized other states' measures this year. CDU brass might wanna have more of a team player.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I understand what you are driving at. Maybe the party officials are really going to elect Laschet to the chairmanship in a backroom deal, but I can't imagine how they would dare to opt against the most popular Union candidate after the Queen herself when it come to the selection of the chancellorship nominee. Don't forget, Laschet has also had his scandals, for example his unfair bashing of Romanians and Bulgarians during the Tönnies affair.

The bottom line is that I didn't know if brucejoel99 was talking about the CDU chair or about the Union's nominee for chancellor. I zeroes in on the latter, whereas you fixate on the former.