German Elections & Politics

[Middle-aged Europe]

The FDP wants its seats in the middle of the new Bundestag. As of yet, they always used to occupy the space on the very right.

And now it's official: Schäuble will not only become the president of the Bundestag by seniority, he is going to become the regular President of the parliament.

I thought seats were always divided in one of these 2 ways?:

Leader of the opposition on one side (so with Jamaica, SPD; after 2013 Linke), Government in the other, everyone else in the middle, ordered most conservative to most left wing

Simply most conservative to most left wing no matter if they are in government or opposition

I think the seating arrangement in the Bundestag has been the same for ages, regardless of who's in government and who's in opposition:

Left - SPD - Greens - CDU/CSU - FDP

[Middle-aged Europe]

http://www.rp-online.de/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl/nach-bundestagswahl-2017-fluechtlings-obergrenze-ist-fuer-die-gruenen-absolutes-no-go-aid-1.7108498


Greens: No to migrant cap

This isnt your 2000's green party.

I don't even know what this is supposed to mean.

The CSU's cap on refugees (migrant cap is a bit of a misnomer) is and always has been opposed by Greens, FDP, and CDU. So, it stands 3:1 against on the issue although the Greens are certainly the least likely of the three to give in and make concessions here.

What this is has to do with the 2000s I don't know. The proposed cap on refugees didn't exist back then as a political issue since this was long before the refugee crisis. Had it existed, it's safe to assume that the Greens' position (and the FDP's and the CDU's) would have been just the same.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Cowardish merkelism as usual. Like the re-installation of Kauder as parliamentary group leader.

This article speculates that a Jamaica government won't actually come into existence before January 2018, due to the CDU's decision to push the beginning of exploratory talks to the second half of October:

http://www.stuttgarter-zeitung.de/inhalt.spaetstart-der-sondierungsgespraeche-die-lange-reise-nach-jamaika.bd9afd94-c458-4202-b91a-d40f1e34dd17.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

So what's the protocol if schwampel doesn't happen?

Minority government? New election? If AfD really is shattering up, maybe CDU/CSU/FDP could round up 29 AfD defectors to reach a majority (but even if they found the numbers for that, would they even want to?)

No, one of two things will happen: Either the SPD changes its mind and does another Grand coalition after all or there's gonna be a snap election in 2018.

[Middle-aged Europe]

the FDP aren't going to be tricked into taking the effectively useless position of Foreign Office this time (I assume Ozdemir will get it): they'll probably try and grab a position like Finance (kicking Schauble aside) so they won't be cucked on their tax plans like last time ("tax cuts for everybody _{if you own a hotel}"). Maybe they'll try and get Health as well, and maybe try their luck on something to do with Asylum (you can certainly bet the Greens won't be allowed near asylum). The Greens, I presume, will go laser focused on environmental causes - the coal phase out, the diesel and petrol ban, the protection of renewable subsidies, maybe some agricultural stuff if the CDU allows it.

Interesting. Here, the Finance Minister position is considered almost a political suicide- anyone who takes it is damaged, because they always try to fix the horrible housing prices and other problems, and fail. So in Germany the position is actually helpful, politically speaking?

It's a very important and powerful position. Whether holding it hurts or helps you depends on how competent you are in it personally. Schäuble was seen as pretty competent, others not so much. So, it's more like a hit-or-miss position.

[Middle-aged Europe]

ZEIT ONLINE now mentions the possibility that exploratory talks on forming a Jamaica coalition won't actually start before the next CSU party congress on November 4-5.

Reason: CDU and CSU have a lot of disagreements with each other, especially on immigration. In light of the AfD's electoral success, the CSU wants to move to the right here, while the CDU wants to stay on course. If they move to the right it would make an agreement with the Greens harder though. Also, CSU chairman Horst Seehofer had to face a lot of of criticism from within his own party these last few days, including calls to step down. A party chaiman will be elected at the congress in early November.

http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2017-09/gruene-fordern-unionsparteien-zu-einigkeit-auf


This may take a while folks. For the time being, we continue to have a CDU/CSU-SPD caretaker government whose term could very well be extended into 2018.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The first post-election poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen is out. (In brackets the changes to the final pre-election poll from the same pollster.)

CDU/CSU 32% (-4)
SPD 21% (-0.5)
AfD 12% (+1)
Greens 11% (+3)
FDP 10% (+-0)
Left 10% (+1.5)

[Middle-aged Europe]

how many Members would they need in order to form their own parliamentary group, rather than sitting as independents?

For an actual "faction" (Fraktion) you'd need 5% of all MPs... which currently means 35. However, you're allowed to form a "group" (Gruppe) with fewer MPs than that. A group is sort of a slimmed down version of a faction with fewer parliamentary rights.

The PDS existed as a group instead of faction between 1990 and 1998 (with at first 17, and then 30 MPs), and the Greens did so as well between 1990 and 1994 (with only 8 MPs).

Between 2002 and 2005, the PDS had only two MPs and in that instance they were denied the recognition as a group. This decision was based on a earlier ruling of the Constitutional Court that you're entitled to the status of a group if you have a sufficient number of MPs to also be entitled to seats on Bundestag comittees (which are allocated proportionally among all parties represented in parliament). In practice, this meant ca. 8 MPs to form a group, give or take.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Internal strife within the AfD is not as much about ideology as it is about personal power and personal animosities.

[Middle-aged Europe]

ZDF overestimating the Greens and FDP and underestimating the AfD again.

What do you mean exactly?

ZDF had the Greens at 8% and the FDP at 10% in their final national poll before the Bundestag election. Their respective election results were 8.9% and 10.7%.

[Middle-aged Europe]

ZDF overestimating the Greens and FDP and underestimating the AfD again.

What do you mean exactly?

ZDF had the Greens at 8% and the FDP at 10% in their final national poll before the Bundestag election. Their respective election results were 8.9% and 10.7%.

I referred to the ARD poll.

The final ARD poll prior to the election had the Greens at 7.5% and the FDP at 9.5%.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, I think the CSU leaders have been knowing from the start that this cap makes no sense and is probably unconstitutional...

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Presidium of the Bundestag is currently occupied by two SPD members, which has now after the lousy election results been reduced to one.

The reduction in vice presidencies for the SPD has more something to do with the fact that there are now seven parties (counting the CSU separately) in the Bundestag instead of just five and everyone's entitled to at least one vice president. Prior to 2013, the SPD also had only a single vice president. This was then increased for the SPD, because the FDP was gone... well, and because there was now another Grand coalition and they could get away with it.

Same applies to the CDU too. Until now, the CDU had the president and a vice president, plus a separate vice president for the CSU. The CDU vice president was now eliminated.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The most interesting deputy election will result from Albrecht Glaser's nomination. The AfD politician is said to be staunchly Islamophobic, which is likely to lead to his defeat. He used to be a CDU member from 1970 till 2012. From 1997 till 2010, he was the city treasurer of Frankfurt am Main.

Glaser will of course repeatedly lose and the AfD will of course cry havoc and lament how totally unfairly they* are treated by the other parties.

* (and only they, because prior to the foundation of the AfD injustice and unfairness didn't exist at all in Germany... the AfD was basically founded with the express purpose of introducing someone who's treated unfairly. That the Greens didn't have a vice president of their own for the first eleven years they sat in parliament didn't actually happen. That the PDS didn't have a vice president for the first eight years they sat in parliament didn't actually happen. That Left Party vice presidential candidate Lothar Bisky didn't manage to get elected in 2005 and that the Left Party's vice presidential post then remained vacant for half a year until Petra Pau was elected for the Left Party in his place didn't actually happen.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Here are the results of the elections to the president and to the vice presidents of the Bundestag:

Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) - President
Yes 501
No 173
Abstain 30
Invalid 1

Hans-Peter Friedrich (CSU) - Vice president
Yes 507
No 112
Abstain 82
Invalid 2

Wolfgang Kubicki (FDP) - Vice president
Yes 489
No 100
Abstain 111
Invalid 3

Claudia Roth (Greens) - Vice president
Yes 489
No 166
Abstain 45
Invalid 3

Petra Pau (Left) - Vice president
Yes 456
No 187
Abstain 54
Invalid 6

Thomas Oppermann (SPD) - Vice president
Yes 396
No 220
Abstain 81
Invalid 6

Albrecht Glaser (AfD) - Vice president
Yes 115
No 550
Abstain 26
Invalid 12


LOL @ Oppermann for having been beaten by the FDP, Green, and Left candidates.

Now entering the second ballot on Albrecht Glaser.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I think that getting 12.6% of the vote, higher than any other party except the big 2 and the 3rd best result for a third party entitles them to get a vicepresident of their own, and one that the AfD itself likes.

The AfD is entitled to a vice president. But in a democracy, no one is entitled to get elected.

Lothar Bisky learned that the hard way back in 2005.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Second ballot on Glaser:

Yes 123 (+8)
No 549 (-1)
Abstain 24 (-2)
Invalid 1 (-11)

Now entering the third ballot.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Third ballot

Yes 114 (-9)
No 545 (-4)
Abstain 26 (+2)
Invalid 0 (-1)

Election of a AfD vice president is postponed to a later date.


What will happen during the rest of the day:

- Merkel and her cabinet are formally dismissed by the president (even though they'll remain in office in an acting capacity, except for Schäuble who's now President of the Bundestag).

- CDU/CSU, FDP, and Greens meet for a third time for exploratory talks on forming a coalition. Today's topic: Finance, taxes, and budget. In an effort to troll Merkel and Lindner, Jürgen Trittin - one of the informal leaders of the Green's left wing - was named head of the Greens  negotiation team on finacne.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yeah, but it should still be someone the AfD agrees to, not just some random guy picked by the other parties that just happens to be from AfD. A compromise candidate.

It's still up to the AfD to nominate a vice-presidential candidate. However, if they want to see their vice-presidential candidate get elected, they need to nominate someone who is capable of winning a majority of votes in the Bundestag.

This time they didn't nominate such a person and they possibly did so on purpose, because they considered the political gain from not winning the vice-presidential election to be higher than the gain from successfully getting a vice president elected.

At the end of the day, you simply can't force a member of the Bundestag to vote in favour of a certain candidate.... which is apparently what you're proposing.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If Jamaica fails, could Schulz try a minority SPD-Greens government, with support from FDP and Linke?

No.

(To elaborate further: I don't know any German politician from any party who has proposed a minority goverment in any form so far. It's a bit of an unwritten rule in German politics that you simply don't do a minority government. It's possible - if not totally uncontroversial and hence rarely done - on state-level, but considered a no-go on the federal level. Every political party in Germany operates under the following assumption right now: If Jamaica fails, the CDU will ask the SPD if they're willing to another Grand coalition after all. The SPD probably will say "no" to this proposition. Then a snap election will be called. The interesting question is what is going to happen if a snap coalition produces the same two options again: Jamaica or Grand coalition. I guess then either a Grand coalition happens or they could indeed consider breaking the unwritten rule of not doing a minority government... with another Grand coalition still being the more likely option of the two IMO. But at this junction, holding a snap election first is basically a prerequisite for any discussion about a minority government.)

Also, how does Germany's system to elect a chancellor work? Does it require an overall majority? A simple majority? How many tries are allowed before Germans go to new elections?

1. During the first attempt at electing a Chancellor, you need an absolute majority of 50%+1. Currently, that's 355 MPs.

2. If this first attempt fails a 14-day deadline starts, during which the Bundestag can try again as often as it wants to elect a Chancellor under the same rules as 1.

3. After the 14-day deadline runs out, the Bundestag is obliged to hold another vote in which receiving a simple plurality is sufficient (the candidate with the most votes wins now). If this occurs, it's the prerogative of the Federal President to either accept this election and formally appoint the Chancellor-elect within seven days or to call a snap election.


In practice, if the Jamaica talks fail and the SPD still says "no" to a Grand coalition, the following would most likely happen:

1. An attempt to elect a Chanellor will be made. This attempt will fail.

2. The 14-day deadline will run without further Chancellorial elections having been held.

3. In the election after the 14-day deadline, Merkel will be re-elected Chancellor with a simple plurality.

4. The President will decide not to appoint Merkel and call a snap election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wouldn't Merkel's 2nd appointment after 14 days fail as well?

She only has 246 seats while everyone else has more than double that. Or do you have to write someone's name or abstain?

No idea. That has never been done before.

I suppose since the actual goal wouldn't be the election of a new Chancellor but to trigger a snap election, it doesn't really matter who gets how many votes after 14-day deadline. The assumption is that the President wouldn't accept the Chancellor-elect and call for a snap election in any case.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Overall opinion on possible coalitions

Jamaica
Favorable 45% (-12)
Unvaforable 52% (+12)

Grand coalition
Favorable 37% (+4)
Unfavorable 62% (-3)

[Middle-aged Europe]

In the (likely) event of a Rastafari coalition, will the Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister be held by different people, i.e. Lindner as VC and Ozdemir as FM?

Until recently, this seemed likely. However, it has now been leaked that the Greens plan to pass on the Foreign Ministry in an attempt to get Environment, Agriculture or Transportation, and Labor. In that scenario, we may get Lindner as vice-chancellor and either minister of finance or economy, and some CDU guy (or perhaps Von der Leyen?) as foreign minister.

But at this junction, I wouldn't call Jamaica "likely" btw. Politicians from different parties are not getting tired of publicly stressing that chances for a Jamaica coalition are about 50/50.

(And considering the scuttlebutt I heard from people personally involved with the negotiations that estimate is indeed an accurate assessment and not just part of anyone's negotiation strategy.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

In the (likely) event of a Rastafari coalition, will the Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister be held by different people, i.e. Lindner as VC and Ozdemir as FM?

Until recently, this seemed likely. However, it has now been leaked that the Greens plan to pass on the Foreign Ministry in an attempt to get Environment, Agriculture or Transportation, and Labor.

In that scenario, we may get Lindner as vice-chancellor and either finance minister or minister of economy, and some CDU guy (or perhaps Von der Leyen?) as foreign minister.

That would be a genuine novelty. Does the Union even have an expert in foreign policy?

Foreign ministers often haven't been foreign policy experts beforehand and this hasn't always been a disadvantage. I think even Hans-Dietrich Genscher had no prior diplomatic or international experience.

But like I said... having been defense minister probably qualifies as having experience in foreign policy. Also, Norbert Röttgen has been chairman of the Bundestag's committee on foreign relations since 2014 (and prior experience as a cabinet minister too), although the personal relationship between him and Merkel may not be in the best shape, considering how he used to leave the cabinet.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Terrible polls. The party is system is too much splitted what makes everything dysfunctional.

Maybe German politics needs to divorce itself from its aversion against minority governments after all. There must be a reason that all the European countries who happen to do this on regular still exist and prosper. Despite the AfD's recent successes this isn't Weimar, and a minority government won't lead to Germany launching World War III in the long run. A CDU/CSU minority government could be tolerated by SPD or FDP/Greens, depending on the issue. Problem is, we're certainly not there yet. As I indicated before, we would need at least another snap election for that.