German Elections & Politics

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Coalition Building Fun:

- Serious feuds over climate change. The Greens are playing hardball on this issue (obviously - if they don't they would look pretty stupid) and want a quick shut-down of lignite plants and a transition to a 100% renewable grid by 2030. FDP stress they support the emissions targets (that Germany is hopelessly off course on, having spent the past couple years sitting on their arse:


 while being smug at countries actually making an effort) but as long as they are "competitive" (i.e. unenforced). CDU's lead negotiater Armin Laschet is NRW Premier, which has loads of lignite mines, and very little wish to close them down. (The SPD are probably grateful that they won't have to play the Thatcher role)

- apparently weed will be legalised, as a little freebie for the Greens and more 420 inclined FDP people

- the CDU has sulkily accepted they won't get control of the Finance Ministry, and to prove they aren't sore losers, apparently tried to strip as much powers from the ministry as possible by moving all European related issues to the Economy Ministry. Finance will probably go to FDP, although Greens are making a feint for it.

- economically, the parties have decided to push for "full employment", but there are major bust-ups about the future of retirement. Jens Spahn, David's dreamlad, wants to raise it from 63, the FDP want to abolish the concept of a fixed retirement age entirely and the Greens want some kind of leftist reform they probably won't get. They also want a wealth tax, which they certainly won't get.

- migrants are obviously going to be the big sticking point, but I honestly think Greens will back down if the Merk demands it. Everyone is also politely ignoring the Europe issue so far as well, but the Greens are in favour of Macron's reforms, the FDP and CSU are against and the CDU, as always, will stick a finger up in the air.

- Merkel's strategy through this term is looking pretty obvious - play the juniors against each on all sorts of issues, chuckle wisely and say they're adorable and then just plod along regardless.

- good news for negotiators though: there is a higher than expected surplus, so more cash can be dolloped around to pay for various freebies and tax cuts to sweeten the coalition deals. (to fund all the tax cuts and extra spending promised by all four parties would cost 100 billion euros over the next four years)

[DavidB.]

^ Spahn is mvd10's dreamlad, not mine...

Thanks for the interesting update!

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Oh sorry David - in retrospect that makes a lot more sense . I promise I'm not a racist who thinks all blue Dutchmen look the same!

[Sozialliberal]

The negotiators have still a long way to go. Nobody knows if there will be a Jamaica coalition at this point. It's expected that there won't be a new government before Christmas. By saing that the SPD won't be available for the continuation of the grand coalition even if the "Jamaica" negotiations fail, Schulz put a lot of pressure on the "Jamaica" parties.

The newspaper "Die Zeit" nicely summarized all areas of disagreement between the negotiating parties:
http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2017-10/sondierungsgespraeche-cdu-csu-fdp-die-gruenen-jamaika-koalition

I translated (and partly shortened) the descriptions of the policy areas where the disagreement is strongest.

Immigration
The CDU and the CSU have agreed on a guide value of not more than 200,000 refugees and asylum seekers at most per year. It certainly will be important to them that this number and the words "limited" and "controlled" will be contained in the coalition agreement. Family reunifications are already included in the number. However, according to CDU/CSU, this restriction applies only to refugees who were granted asylum on an individual basis (e.g. because they're politically persecuted in their home countries) and not to those who fled from war. The Greens, on the other hand, want to provide unbureaucratic possibilities for the former mentioned group's family members to come with them or join them later. The FDP wants to introduce quotas based on humanitarian and economic criteria.

Collectivization of Debt in the Eurozone
The FDP platform says: "We oppose the European financial equalization by means of a eurozone budget and the collectivization of the banks' deposit protection." As an alternative, the FDP calls for an independent institution that supervises compliance with the rules of the monetary union, an insolvency regulation for eurozone states, and the right to leave the eurozone (which implies dropping the euro as currency) without losing EU membership. Lindner (the FDP chairman) said that Greece would have to leave the eurozone in case of debt relief.

CDU/CSU want to stabilize the eurozone and develop it further in co-operation with the French government. They proposed the creation of a European monetary fund (i.e. like the IMF, only on a European scale, in case the IMF refuses to provide financial aid for an insolvent eurozone state), but they also emphasize that all EU members have to follow the common rules. In addition, they rule out the collectivization of debt in the eurozone.

The Greens want to transform the European rescue mechanisms into a European monetary fund and put it under the control of the European Parliament. However, the FDP is sceptical about the creation of a European monetary fund. Generally speaking, the Greens and the CDU tend to be in favour of spending more money on Europe, while the FDP and the CSU tend to be in favour of spending less.

EU Finance Minister
Chancellor Merkel implied that she, similarly to the French president Macron, can imagine giving more powers to the EU. For example, an EU finance minister with an own budget. She also said that it must be clarified what exactly the responsibilities of such a minister would be. However, the FDP is strongly opposed to an EU reform that would give the EU more rights to intervene in the individual member states. The Greens are very much in favour of extending EU powers.

Coal-Fired Power Plants
The Greens want to shut down the dirtiest coal-fired power plants in Germany until 2020. CDU/CSU and the FDP, on the other hand, oppose a government ban on specific energy sources. They prefer a market solution instead. A carbon tax, which would make most coal-based electricity unprofitable, could be a compromise.

Military Expenditure
CDU/CSU declared their support for the NATO goal to gradually raise military spending to 2% of Germany's GDP until 2024. The Greens say that it would be more sensible to invest money in the ecological modernization and the digital future of the European continent instead of spending up to 30 billion euros on defence. The FDP's position is vague.

[Former President tack50]

If Jamaica fails, could Schulz try a minority SPD-Greens government, with support from FDP and Linke? Or is that impossible? (it would be extremely unstable I'll admit)

Also, how does Germany's system to elect a chancellor work? Does it require an overall majority? A simple majority? How many tries are allowed before Germans go to new elections?

[Middle-aged Europe]

If Jamaica fails, could Schulz try a minority SPD-Greens government, with support from FDP and Linke?

No.

(To elaborate further: I don't know any German politician from any party who has proposed a minority goverment in any form so far. It's a bit of an unwritten rule in German politics that you simply don't do a minority government. It's possible - if not totally uncontroversial and hence rarely done - on state-level, but considered a no-go on the federal level. Every political party in Germany operates under the following assumption right now: If Jamaica fails, the CDU will ask the SPD if they're willing to another Grand coalition after all. The SPD probably will say "no" to this proposition. Then a snap election will be called. The interesting question is what is going to happen if a snap coalition produces the same two options again: Jamaica or Grand coalition. I guess then either a Grand coalition happens or they could indeed consider breaking the unwritten rule of not doing a minority government... with another Grand coalition still being the more likely option of the two IMO. But at this junction, holding a snap election first is basically a prerequisite for any discussion about a minority government.)

Also, how does Germany's system to elect a chancellor work? Does it require an overall majority? A simple majority? How many tries are allowed before Germans go to new elections?

1. During the first attempt at electing a Chancellor, you need an absolute majority of 50%+1. Currently, that's 355 MPs.

2. If this first attempt fails a 14-day deadline starts, during which the Bundestag can try again as often as it wants to elect a Chancellor under the same rules as 1.

3. After the 14-day deadline runs out, the Bundestag is obliged to hold another vote in which receiving a simple plurality is sufficient (the candidate with the most votes wins now). If this occurs, it's the prerogative of the Federal President to either accept this election and formally appoint the Chancellor-elect within seven days or to call a snap election.


In practice, if the Jamaica talks fail and the SPD still says "no" to a Grand coalition, the following would most likely happen:

1. An attempt to elect a Chanellor will be made. This attempt will fail.

2. The 14-day deadline will run without further Chancellorial elections having been held.

3. In the election after the 14-day deadline, Merkel will be re-elected Chancellor with a simple plurality.

4. The President will decide not to appoint Merkel and call a snap election.

[Former President tack50]

Wouldn't Merkel's 2nd appointment after 14 days fail as well?

She only has 246 seats while everyone else has more than double that. Or do you have to write someone's name or abstain?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wouldn't Merkel's 2nd appointment after 14 days fail as well?

She only has 246 seats while everyone else has more than double that. Or do you have to write someone's name or abstain?

No idea. That has never been done before.

I suppose since the actual goal wouldn't be the election of a new Chancellor but to trigger a snap election, it doesn't really matter who gets how many votes after 14-day deadline. The assumption is that the President wouldn't accept the Chancellor-elect and call for a snap election in any case.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Greens have conceded they won't get explicit target dates to phase out coal or combustion engines.

FDP have conceded they won't get all their tax cuts.

CSU Youth Wing (lol) want to oust Seehofer

[Beezer]

Worst CDU/CSU result in the poll in over a decade:



Support for a Jamaika coalition, -9 points among FDP supporters, -21 among Green voters compared to October:

[Middle-aged Europe]

Overall opinion on possible coalitions

Jamaica
Favorable 45% (-12)
Unvaforable 52% (+12)

Grand coalition
Favorable 37% (+4)
Unfavorable 62% (-3)

[Middle-aged Europe]

In the (likely) event of a Rastafari coalition, will the Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister be held by different people, i.e. Lindner as VC and Ozdemir as FM?

Until recently, this seemed likely. However, it has now been leaked that the Greens plan to pass on the Foreign Ministry in an attempt to get Environment, Agriculture or Transportation, and Labor. In that scenario, we may get Lindner as vice-chancellor and either minister of finance or economy, and some CDU guy (or perhaps Von der Leyen?) as foreign minister.

But at this junction, I wouldn't call Jamaica "likely" btw. Politicians from different parties are not getting tired of publicly stressing that chances for a Jamaica coalition are about 50/50.

(And considering the scuttlebutt I heard from people personally involved with the negotiations that estimate is indeed an accurate assessment and not just part of anyone's negotiation strategy.)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

In the (likely) event of a Rastafari coalition, will the Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister be held by different people, i.e. Lindner as VC and Ozdemir as FM?

Until recently, this seemed likely. However, it has now been leaked that the Greens plan to pass on the Foreign Ministry in an attempt to get Environment, Agriculture or Transportation, and Labor.

In that scenario, we may get Lindner as vice-chancellor and either finance minister or minister of economy, and some CDU guy (or perhaps Von der Leyen?) as foreign minister.

That would be a genuine novelty. Does the Union even have an expert in foreign policy?

[Middle-aged Europe]

In the (likely) event of a Rastafari coalition, will the Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister be held by different people, i.e. Lindner as VC and Ozdemir as FM?

Until recently, this seemed likely. However, it has now been leaked that the Greens plan to pass on the Foreign Ministry in an attempt to get Environment, Agriculture or Transportation, and Labor.

In that scenario, we may get Lindner as vice-chancellor and either finance minister or minister of economy, and some CDU guy (or perhaps Von der Leyen?) as foreign minister.

That would be a genuine novelty. Does the Union even have an expert in foreign policy?

Foreign ministers often haven't been foreign policy experts beforehand and this hasn't always been a disadvantage. I think even Hans-Dietrich Genscher had no prior diplomatic or international experience.

But like I said... having been defense minister probably qualifies as having experience in foreign policy. Also, Norbert Röttgen has been chairman of the Bundestag's committee on foreign relations since 2014 (and prior experience as a cabinet minister too), although the personal relationship between him and Merkel may not be in the best shape, considering how he used to leave the cabinet.

[DavidB.]

I wanted Cem Özdemir on Foreign Affairs

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

In the (likely) event of a Rastafari coalition, will the Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister be held by different people, i.e. Lindner as VC and Ozdemir as FM?

Until recently, this seemed likely. However, it has now been leaked that the Greens plan to pass on the Foreign Ministry in an attempt to get Environment, Agriculture or Transportation, and Labor.

In that scenario, we may get Lindner as vice-chancellor and either finance minister or minister of economy, and some CDU guy (or perhaps Von der Leyen?) as foreign minister.

That would be a genuine novelty. Does the Union even have an expert in foreign policy?

Foreign ministers often haven't been foreign policy experts beforehand and this hasn't always been a disadvantage. I think even Hans-Dietrich Genscher had no prior diplomatic or international experience.

But like I said... having been defense minister probably qualifies as having experience in foreign policy. Also, Norbert Röttgen has been chairman of the Bundestag's committee on foreign relations since 2014 (and prior experience as a cabinet minister too), although the personal relationship between him and Merkel may not be in the best shape, considering how he used to leave the cabinet.

Oh yes, that was the only time in her political career that she really showed her teeth.

But as much as I despise her, I think Uschi wouldn't be the most-baddest choice. She speaks English perfectly and fluently (unlike probably all her predecessors) and she has some foreign-policy experience. And above all, she'd be more competent on that field than on her current one. But after all, I think Cem will become the next foreign minister.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I wanted Cem Özdemir on Foreign Affairs

Don't worry, you wish will come to fulfillment.

[Beezer]

CDU/CSU with their worst Emnid result in 6 years:

[President Johnson]

Terrible polls. The party system is too much splitted what makes everything dysfunctional.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Terrible polls. The party is system is too much splitted what makes everything dysfunctional.

Maybe German politics needs to divorce itself from its aversion against minority governments after all. There must be a reason that all the European countries who happen to do this on regular still exist and prosper. Despite the AfD's recent successes this isn't Weimar, and a minority government won't lead to Germany launching World War III in the long run. A CDU/CSU minority government could be tolerated by SPD or FDP/Greens, depending on the issue. Problem is, we're certainly not there yet. As I indicated before, we would need at least another snap election for that.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian ORF (= public broadcaster) is reporting that the Jamaica talks are close to failing, mostly because of the Greens - who yesterday said that of the 10 points that are most important to them, zero have been added to the coalition agreement or finalized yet so that the Greens can live with it ...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://orf.at/stories/2414540/2414539

[President Johnson]

Terrible polls. The party system is too much splitted what makes everything dysfunctional.

Maybe German politics needs to divorce itself from its aversion against minority governments after all. There must be a reason that all the European countries who happen to do this on regular still exist and prosper. Despite the AfD's recent successes this isn't Weimar, and a minority government won't lead to Germany launching World War III in the long run. A CDU/CSU minority government could be tolerated by SPD or FDP/Greens, depending on the issue. Problem is, we're certainly not there yet. As I indicated before, we would need at least another snap election for that.

Minority governments don't work very well, and won't do so in Germany. I'm for a majority election law similar to the UK what keeps minor parties out of the Bundestag. Which I would then limit to 500-550 seats; one per district and districting by an independent commission.

[Lord Halifax]

Terrible polls. The party system is too much splitted what makes everything dysfunctional.

Maybe German politics needs to divorce itself from its aversion against minority governments after all. There must be a reason that all the European countries who happen to do this on regular still exist and prosper. Despite the AfD's recent successes this isn't Weimar, and a minority government won't lead to Germany launching World War III in the long run. A CDU/CSU minority government could be tolerated by SPD or FDP/Greens, depending on the issue. Problem is, we're certainly not there yet. As I indicated before, we would need at least another snap election for that.

Minority governments don't work very well

They do in plenty of countries.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Minority governments don't work very well,

Do you have any empirical evidence for that? In what way do they not work very well exactly?

The examples of Sweden, Denmark, or even Spain - where minority governments are the norm and not the exception -  seem to refute that statment.

I'm for a majority election law similar to the UK what keeps minor parties out of the Bundestag. Which I would then limit to 500-550 seats; one per district and districting by an independent commission.

Well, apart from the fact this will probably never happen of course (and is hence far less likely than Germany trying out a minority government) I sure as hell hope that things would balance themselves out a bit under such a system. Under a straight FPTP system, the CDU/CSU would currrently hold a three-quarter majority in the Bundestag and they also would have done so in 2013.

Unless you hope that the voters of FDP, Greens, and Left would flock to the two major parties under a FPTP system, which basically means that you want the electoral system as a measure to force voters of the smaller parties to switch to the bigger ones. Curiously, I seem to recall that you're a member of one the two major parties yourself, so your own party would be the one who'd potentially profit the most from such a change.

[DL]

Any news on what government is to be formed in Lower Saxony?