German Elections & Politics

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, why is Schauble so popular?

He's ensuring Germany's continued prosperity by quietly doing his job, or at least that's how I'd describe his public image. I guess he's seen as competent and the personification of political stability albeit in a boring way. At the very least he has amassed more political experience than some of these other folks combined, considering that it was almost 33 years ago that he first became a cabinet member under Helmut Kohl.

Does being Merkel's "pitbull" on Greece also help his image?

I think that's an image of Schäuble more prevalent abroad than it is at home.

Nobody actually gives a sh**t about Greece here... at least nobody has been since mid-2015.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Or they are to vote for the BIG, the German branch of the AKP.
Funnily and totally unexpectedly, the Turkish Community in Germany (a registered association) has repudiated the sultan's remarks and chided him for his instruction in the matter of democracy and told his members to go to the polls "now more than ever". (Notice, the vast majority of the Turkish Community in Germany are members of the SPD or SPD-leaning).

That's not really unexpected... the Turkish Community in Germany has basically been an anti-AKP organization for several years now and has often criticized Erdogan in the past. For instance, they had also campaigned for the "No" camp in the run-up to this year's constitutional referendum on introducing a presidential system in Turkey.

The Turkish political party the Turkish Community in Germany is closest to ideologically is probably the CHP, so they're in essence old-school Kemalists.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sometimes I get the feeling that relevance and irrelevance are totally unknown concepts to some people.

Yeah, Schulz was talking about a relevant and horrible event and she acted like a total fool ...

I suppose you're talking about Eva Högl. In her apology she explained that neither she nor the people immediately around her noticed (were able to hear) at first that Martin Schulz was even talking about the Barcelona attacks. Given that I had only heard good things about Eva Högl and the job she's doing in the Bundestag (saw her up-close at one time myself), I'm willing to cut her some slack. It was a gaffe. Political parties have to PR people to do damage control exactly for instances like that. It happened, she apologized. It's settled, as far as I'm concerned.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The British tabloid press has already picked up on Högl's anti-social behavior:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/843345/Barcelona-terror-attack-Germany-MP-joke-no-respect-video

The fact that pretty much only the tabloid press and right-wing bloggers have picked this story up at all, should serve as a pretty strong hint. Even more respectable right-wing news outlets like WELT or FAZ have chosen to completely ignore this thing.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The "Wahl Navi" test of RTL, RTL II (*shudder*), and n-tv has produced the following results for me:

Greens 77%
SPD 72%
Left 62%
FDP 58%
CDU/CSU 51%
AfD 33%

Link: https://www.wahlnavi.de/

[Middle-aged Europe]

Unweighted result (only the least irrelevant parties)

Greens 81.6%
SPD 68.4%
Left 67.1%
Pirates 63.2%
CDU/CSU 59.2%
Free Voters 57.9%
AfD 42.1%
FDP 40.8%

Weighted result

Greens 83.7%
SPD 70.9%
Left 67.4%
Pirates 65.1%
CDU/CSU 60.5%
Free Voters 58.1%
FDP 40.7%
AfD 37.2%


I noticed that I had a uncharacteristically weak result for the Pirates in both the Wahl-O-Mat and the Movact Wahlswiper (an app for your smartphone). In the past, the Pirates were on average my second-strongest party or something like that. I wonder if this means that the Pirates have moved backed to the centre, since they basically have become politically irrelevant.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, as the story goes, the SPD was in fact one of the parties Merkel considered joining back in 1989. She allegedly decided against it because they called each other "comrade" there and this reminded her a bit too much of the SED. So, she ended up with the "Democratic Awakening" party which eventually was swallowed up by the East German CDU which in turn was then swallowed up by the West German CDU.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Far-right German candidate promises to get rid of Arabic numerals

LOL. Sounds like an election slogan from DIE PARTEI.

Well, a member of DIE PARTEI asked him the question hahaha

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBiLSqz-DDg

That NPD candidate obviously didn't know what Arabic numerals are or what they look like, since he promised that he would replace them with (quote) "normal numerals" without going into detail which numerals he considers "normal".

Instead, he was solely triggered by the word "Arabic" and worked on the assumption that he has to oppose everything "Arabic". The fact that the question was asked by someone who had clearly identified himself as a member of DIE PARTEI and the fact that this question had caused some laughter from the audience, should have given him with a hint though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So why exactly has Schulz and the SPD crashed?

Cause the SPD has been a 22-25% party for close to a decade now.

Why, exactly? is it just that they've only been able to have limited appeal, even though they seem to be the standard center-left party that most European nations have?

The introduction of Hartz IV and the rise of the Left Party, both of which happened around the same time. Also, Angel Merkel governing as a sort of social-democratish Christian Democrat.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If you take the aggregate poll data you get this breakdown of seats:



Black-yellow are 12 seats short of a majority, a leftist coalition would need 55 additional seats. And remember when red-green was a thing? They're a remarkable 118 seats short of a governing majority.

Would this probably lead to a Jamaica coalition, with a majority of forty?

My guess is that Jamaica won't happen and this would in fact lead a renewed Grand coalition.

The CSU doesn't really want to govern with the Greens, the Greens don't want to govern with both FDP and CSU at the same time, and the FDP doesn't want to share the spoils with a second junior coalition partner at their side.

The first obstacle (CSU doesn't like Greens) would still be present in a pure Black-Green coalition without FDP, but maybe it could be overcome. CSU wouldn't have an ally in form of the FDP to help them push the Greens out, and Merkel could tell the CSU to just shut the f**k up. Black-Green instead of Jamaica would also be a bit of an easier sell to the base of the Green party.

So, if it comes down to either Grand coalition or Jamaica the following will happen IMO: CDU/CSU, FDP, and Greens start negotiations to form a coalition. At some point these negotiations will break down. Then the Greens will blame the FDP and maybe the CSU for this failure, CSU and FDP will blame the Greens for it in return. CDU/CSU then enters negotiations to form another Grand coalition.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I actually think there's a decent chance Die PARTEI AfD-2013s this, as in performing best of the minor parties and then spinning that into a surge where they can get in to the various Landtags that are having elections next. Whether they decay quickly like the Pirates did or stick around, like the Greens and AfD, would remain to be seen.

Not gonna happen. They're a joke party and everbody knows it, even those who vote for them. Their maximum potential under the best of circumstances probably lies at around 2%.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://deutschland.isidewith.com/en/results/3292000083

Weird quiz which contains some decidedly "American" issues/questions which play no role whatsoever in this or any other German election campaign.

Take the death penalty question for instance. None of the seven (if we count the CSU separately) political parties who will enter the Bundestag advocates the introduction of the death penalty. Even if one of them were, they'd still need a two-third majority in Bundestag and Bundesrat to change the constitution. And even if they had that two-third majority, EU treaties still wouldn't allow it. So, this and some other of these questions deal largely in hypotheticals.

Anyway, my results were:

Greens 72%
Left 70%
The Party 70%
SPD 69%
FDP 59%
CDU/CSU 58%
CDU 58% (what, CDU and CSU are included thrice in this quiz?)
Pirates 57%
ÖDP 48%
CSU 45%
ALFA 38% (note: ALFA doesn't exist under that label anymore, they're called LKR now... they're also not on the ballot in any state this election)
AfD 35%

https://deutschland.isidewith.com/en/results/3292011940

[Middle-aged Europe]

Scandal !

The recent town hall with Merkel featured a ton of refugees who had the possibility to speak with her and plead against their deportation (one even said into the camera: "I LOVE you, Mrs. Merkel !").

On the other hand, the public broadcaster ZDF disinvited a Berlin terror victim before the town hall, who also wanted to debate Merkel ...

#LockHerUp

[Middle-aged Europe]

Big, if true.

[Middle-aged Europe]

YouGov has the FDP at only 7%. Which would mean that a Jamaica coalition would wind up with 351 seats, a relatively slim majority of just 8. Hardly comforting given the ideological gaps on some issues.



https://yougov.de/news/2017/09/19/yougov-errechnet-mit-neuem-ansatz-die-sitzverteilu/

These ain't actual polling numbers though, but a projection based on a "Multilevel Regression und Post-Stratifikation" method, as they describe it on their website.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What exactly happened to the SPD? I haven't been following the election closely but I remember eralier in the year it looked like they actually had a chance?

Everybody initially thought Martin Schulz was the real deal. Then the SPD lost three state elections in a row in March and May.

Between trying to emulate Macron and trying to emulate Corbyn we also never really found out who Schulz really was. You can't have it both ways, Schulz.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What's the AfD's stance on economic issues? Are they still really right-wing on economic issues like a couple of years ago or did they moderate to attract low income blue-collar workers or unemployed voters?

 
   
Economically somewhere around the FDP but with much bigger social security cuts.

But - in contrast to the FDP - the AfD supports the minimum wage, they want to raise the welfare benefits and they are against university tuitions.

Their two wings are at odds over most econmic policies including Social Security. Some are economically liberal, others more protectionist etc. Some AfD members want to privatize unemployment insurance.

There was a TV debate this Thursday where AfD lead candidate Alexander Gauland flat-out admitted that his party doesn't really have a position on pensions because the two wings in his party hold diametrically opposed views on the issue. The AfD is solely held together by their opposition to immigration, Angela Merkel, "political correctness", and the "mainstream media". If they ever had to to govern, they'd probably split into two distinct political parties very quickly... a more "libertarian" one, and a more economically populist one.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The same applied to the WASG and the PDS in 2005; the West German WASG entered the Bundestag although they didn't reach 5%.

Dude, the WASG wasn't even running/on the ballot in 2005. Only the PDS was and they had nominated members of the WASG on their lists and as their direct candidates.

Also, what the others said... the 5% threshold does of course apply to the CSU too.

[Middle-aged Europe]

BREAKING CSU leader Seehofer questions parlamentary alliance with CDU.

If that is true, the forming of new cabinet will be fun to watch.

Yeah.... please do it, Seehofer.

CDU (without CSU), SPD, and Greens would also hold a majority in the new parliament. Kenya coalition.

[Middle-aged Europe]

BREAKING CSU leader Seehofer questions parlamentary alliance with CDU.

If that is true, the forming of new cabinet will be fun to watch.

Yeah.... please do it, Seehofer.

CDU (without CSU), SPD, and Greens would also hold a majority in the new parliament. Kenya coalition.

ZERO chance SPD joins the government again. And that is good.

Jamaica has no majority without CSU. Early elections then.

[Middle-aged Europe]

One question, how easy would it be to make a CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD coalition?

I know everyone has said they won't work with the AfD, but that coalition seems a lot easier to create in my opinion than CDU+FDP+Greens

AfD already ruled out to join a government. Frauke Petry is open to the idea for 2021, but she's isolated in her party. She even today announced that she wouldn't join the AfD parlamentary group. If others follow, the AfD may split into two factions, as they have done for a while in the legislature of Baden-Württemberg. So, the new Bundestag hasn't even assumbled, and AfD is already fighting their own people. Will be fun to watch.

Merkel also ruled out to work with the AfD many months ago. Even the CSU declined to work with AfD. Let alone the FDP.

I'd like to add that any CDU/CSU+AfD coalition would need to find a different Chancellor too. Opposition to (and fueling hatred against) Angela Merkel is one of the defining features of the AfD nowadays. Any AfD leader who would try to form a coalition with Merkel would probably removed from his position rather quickly. It would be roughly comparable to Donald Trump appointing Hillary Clinton as his Secretary of State.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The parliamentary AfD group in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag has split. 4 "moderate" MPs have left and want to form their own faction.

It's happening!

With the election over, there's no need to maintain the illusion of an intraparty truce any longer.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What's going to happen for the Cabinet? Will Lindner get the foreign department and the Greens get the finance minister?

Try to ask that question again in, maybe, two months from now. Perhaps three.

So far, it's unclear whether there even will be a Jamaica cabinet. If it comes to that, it's a process that's gonna take weeks or even months. First, there are gonna be rounds and rounds of negotiations which will determine if all four governing parties can find common ground... with both the Greens and the CSU at the table, that's not gonna be easy. If all parties can - in theory - agree on a coalition, both FDP and Greens will also let all their members have a vote on it. That too is something that needs time to be organized and executed.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Frauke Petry has officially left the AfD.

She is joined by her husband Marcus Pretzell, the leader of the AfD in Northrhine-Westphalia, and two members of the Saxon state parliament, Uwe Wurlitzer and Kirsten Muster.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Greens have decided to indefinitely postpone their next party congress, which was initially scheduled for October 21.

Reason given: The next party congress is supposed to vote on the start of formal coalition negotiations with CDU/CSU and FDP. These negotiations usually start after finishing the phase of exploratory talks. The CDU has apparently signaled that they don't plan to start with these exploratory talks before the Lower Saxony state election on October 15 is held. Also, CDU and CSU have to work things out between themselves first.


Which gives us roughly this tentative timetable:

The week of October 16 - Start of of exploratory talks between CDU/CSU, FDP, and Greens.

Sometime around the beginning of November, at the earliest - Start of formal coalitions negotiations (provided that the exploratory talks are successful).