German Elections & Politics

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'd say while the FDP has become more hipster they didn't become more left-wing.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The first Schleswig-Holstein state election poll since December is out... election is on May 7, concurrently with the French run-off.

SPD 33% (+7)
CDU 27% (-7)
Greens 14% (-1)
FDP 9% (+-0)
AfD 7% (+1)
Left 4% (-1)
SSW 3% (+-0)

This means SPD and Greens could continue their coalition without the SSW's assistance this time.

(I'd attribute the Greens' strong position compared to other recent state polls due to deputy minister-president Robert Habeck, who apparently is the most popular state-level politician in Schleswig-Holstein.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

The first Schleswig-Holstein state election poll since December is out... election is on May 7, concurrently with the French run-off.

SPD 33% (+7)
CDU 27% (-7)
Greens 14% (-1)
FDP 9% (+-0)
AfD 7% (+1)
Left 4% (-1)
SSW 3% (+-0)

This means SPD and Greens could continue their coalition without the SSW's assistance this time.

(I'd attribute the Greens' strong position compared to other recent state polls due to deputy minister-president Robert Habeck, who apparently is the most popular state-level politician in Schleswig-Holstein.)

Which pollster?

Infratest dimap, both now and back in December.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Red-red-green in its various guises has 34 seats in the Bundesrat (out of 69) right now. They'd be rather stupid if they didn't use the opportunity to get to a majority with Saarland's 3 seats.

State elections aren't solely about Bundesrat majorities though. Nor should they be IMO.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Emnid national poll (03/18)

CDU/CSU 33% (+-0)
SPD 32% (-1)
AfD 9% (+1)
Greens 8% (+1)
Left 8% (+-0)
FDP 5% (-1)

Majority for Grand coalition and Red-Red-Green.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Martin Schulz was officially nominated as candidate for chancellor and as the new party leader of the SPD. He won 605 of 605 votes cast, and thus a result of 100%. That has never happened before in the SPD.

They should change the party name to Schulz-Partei Deutschlands!

#MEGA

He's truly the God-Chancellor now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I think Martin Schulz is in fact originally a Schröderite. But he's now running on a left-wing platform criticizing the Schröder government under the assumption that this is the only way he can win.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The 2017 North Rhine-Westphalian CDU campaign compared to the 1994 Lower Saxon SPD campaign:



"Listening. Deciding. Acting."

[Middle-aged Europe]

AfD is even starting to crash now in their favorite pollsters' newest poll.


INSA

SPD 32.5% (+0.5%)
CDU/CSU 32.0% (+-0%)
AfD 9% (-2%)
Left 9% (+0.5%)
Greens 6.5% (+-0%)
FDP 6.5% (+0.5%)

Majority for Red-Red-Green or Red-Black.


What's going on with the AfD?

- Frauke Petry recently threatend to resign and leave the party if she isn't made sole lead candidate for the Bundestag election. Her, um, enemies insist on a lead team instead of Petry as the sole leader... maybe they hope that she resigns and leaves the party.

- Expulsion procedures against Björn Höcke are moving forward. He also plans to attend the upcoming AfD national congress, even though the hotel where the congress is held has banned him from entering the premises.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Political leanings of public broadcasting varies regionally in Germany, often depending on for which political party the respective state is a stronghold. This results in MDR and BR being right-wing, while WDR and NDR are left-wing.

Due to the federalized nature of public broadcasting political leanings of the national channels ARD and ZDF can vary from program to program. Monitor (produced by WDR) is decidedly left-wing, while report München (produced by BR) is obviously right-wing. They're both on ARD though.

Of course, supporters of the Left Party will think that almost all TV channels follow a "neoliberal" agenda, while AfD voters consider them to be "leftist".

[Middle-aged Europe]

Discuss!

[Middle-aged Europe]

Breaking: Frauke Petry declines to become her party's lead candidate for the upcoming election. This includes both a solo candidacy and a candidacy as part of a team.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Schleswig-Holstein state election poll (Infratest)

SPD 33% (+-0)
CDU 31% (+1)
Greens 12% (+-0)
FDP 9% (+-0)
AfD 5% (-2)
Left 4% (+-0)
SSW 3% (+-0)

Majority for SPD-Greens-SSW if the AfD makes it past 5%, majority for SPD-Greens if the AfD fails to enter the state parliament.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Speaking of the AfD... AfD Bundestag candidate Jens Maier is in trouble after saying in a speech that Anders Behring Breivik was merely forced to act "out of desperation".

Maier also happens to be a judge, so I guess Breivik merely had the bad luck of getting a judge who didn't sympathize with his motives.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Some 50.000 left-leftist extremists and protesters are expected outside the convention hall and some have already intimidated and attacked convention guests.

Eeh, while there were undoubtedly a couple of extremists among those 50,000 people (there always are) and some of these extremists have committed acts of violence, the peaceful majority of protesters have followed the call of the "Köln stellt sich quer" alliance who has organized the main anti-AfD demonstration today.

Among the members of "Köln stellt sich quer" are the CDU, the FDP, the SPD, the Greens, the Left Party, the Pirate Party, all major labor unions, both Christian churches, Jewish organizations, Amnesty International, and so on... all in all more than 80 organizations.

[Middle-aged Europe]

On the AfD convention itself, it has become very clear how isolated Frauke Petry is within her own party after suffering a a couple of defeats und snubs today. Question is how long she will be able to survive as chairwoman, since she seemed only like a chairwoman in name only today.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Greens remain quite strong up there. Any reason for that ?

1. Robert Habeck.

2. Not running a sh**tty campaign.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Since the SPD hasn't exactly fallen back to their pre-Schulz 20% in the polls I'd agree that the bubble hasn't burst (yet?)... Schulz has merely put his peak behind him.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Northrhine-Westphalia state election, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 05/05
(changes in comparison to the last FGW poll from early February)

SPD 32% (-4)
CDU 32% (+-0)
FDP 12% (+4)
Greens 7.5% (+0.5)
Left 6% (+1)
AfD 6% (-3)

[Middle-aged Europe]

The SPD should probably have waited with nominating Schulz until August.   By September he'll have completely fizzled out.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The SSW is exempt from the threshold because it represents the Danish and the Frisian minority in Schleswig-Holstein. Note that the SSW had never been in government before 2012. It was disputed whether the SSW should make policy on issues that don't affect the Danish/Frisian minority in particular.

The SSW was not on good terms with CDU/FDP for some years. The black-yellow coalition, which governed from 2009 to 2012, cut funds for Danish schools in Schleswig-Holstein. The CDU sharply attacked the SSW before and after the 2012 state election. They even distributed leaflets in which they falsely claimed that the SSW demanded "pocket money for offenders on parole". The CDU later tried to reconcile with the SSW, but the SSW is still on friendlier terms with SPD/Greens.

Of course, there's no law forbidding the SSW to enter a governing coalition. It was just the CDU trying to tell the SSW what they're "supposed" to be allowed in a rather paternatlistic manner.

For many years it also has been commonplace that SPD and SSW cooperate in German presidential elections, a practice which preceded the current governing coalition. The SPD is usually piggybacking a SSW member into the Federal Assembly (= electoral college) as part of their Schleswig-Holsteinian delegation. And of course, the SSW usually endorses whoever the SPD presidential candidate is.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, the messages from an internal Whatsapp group of the AfD Saxony-Anhalt have been leaked.


So, far it seems the worst messages exchanged in that group were:

1) A member writing on February 18, that "after taking power, a panel must screen and filter all journalists and editors. Fire the directors, ban media who are enemies of the people". In response, another member voiced concern that this Whatsapp group was "almost public" due to its size, and that caution is advised.

2) AfD state chairman André Poggenberg writing about "expanding the external borders", and "Germany for the Germans!"


Poggenburg himself has confirmed the authenticity of the leaked material. His defense basically was: Freedom of speech.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Some other quotes from the leaked AfD group on Whatsapp:


1) "I have four children. I won't leave them to the Musulman faith (which isn't one). I'm also a good shooter, hence a good hit rate. I intend to get a private gun license too."

2) "I'm afraid that the upcoming, massive, establishment-made mistakes can only be solved by "chambering a round" and not so easily."
Another member of the group responds: "I have to agree with you. But it's doable. All for one and one for all."

3) "Without taking over the media, you won't have power. ... We must infiltrate the media, otherwise it's going to be hard."

4) "The Allies are striking again and carving up Germany with the help of the established parties."

[Middle-aged Europe]

To be fair, is that a private group of supporters, a group of the leadership, what?

Because if it's a private group of supporters then I don't see the problem. They are borderline neo-nazis sure, but you shouldn't ban an ideology.

If it's an official group they should be expelled, they've gone way too far.

It's a Whatsapp group called "AfD Info LSA", run by their state chapter in Saxony-Anhalt.

It's supposed to have around 200 members. The members of the AfD state executive committee (including the state chairman, one of his deputy chairmen, and the state treasurer) serve as the administrators of the group. Other members include the chairman of the Saxony-Anhalt chapter of the AfD youth organization, as well as several members of the state parliament.


The originator of these aforementioned quotes has been identified as Nico Backhaus, deputy county chairman of the AfD and federal police officer:

"I have four children. I won't leave them to the Musulman faith (which isn't one). I'm also a good shooter, hence a good hit rate. I intend to get a private gun license too."

"I have to agree with you. But it's doable. All for one and one for all." (in response to: "I'm afraid that the upcoming, massive, establishment-made mistakes can only be solved by "chambering a round" and not so easily.")

[Middle-aged Europe]

To be fair, is that a private group of supporters, a group of the leadership, what?

Because if it's a private group of supporters then I don't see the problem. They are borderline neo-nazis sure, but you shouldn't ban an ideology.

If it's an official group they should be expelled, they've gone way too far.

It's a Whatsapp group called "AfD Info LSA", run by their state chapter in Saxony-Anhalt.

It's supposed to have around 200 members. The members of the AfD state executive committee (including the state chairman, one of his deputy chairmen, and the state treasurer) serve as the administrators of the group. Other members include the chairman of the Saxony-Anhalt chapter of the AfD youth organization, as well as several members of the state parliament.


The originator of these aforementioned quotes has been identified as Nico Backhaus, deputy county chairman of the AfD and federal police officer:

"I have four children. I won't leave them to the Musulman faith (which isn't one). I'm also a good shooter, hence a good hit rate. I intend to get a private gun license too."

"I have to agree with you. But it's doable. All for one and one for all." (in response to: "I'm afraid that the upcoming, massive, establishment-made mistakes can only be solved by "chambering a round" and not so easily.")

Oh, so it's official and involving high up people! Well I guess now everyone knows that the AfD has some sympathies for neo nazis.

To follow up on this... André Poggenburg, the chairman of the Saxony-Anhalt state chapter of the AfD, has now been formally reprimanded by the AfD federal executive committee (of which he is himself a member of). There won't be any expulsion procedures initiated for now though.