Schleswig-Holstein state election

[Middle-aged Europe]

We had a topic about the German state elections in September, so I thought I bring up the state election in Schleswig-Holstein on February 20.

Schleswig-Holstein has currently a SPD/Green coalition government under PM Heide Simonis, making Schlesw.-Holst. the only German state with a female head of government. The candidate of the CDU is Peter-Harry Carstensen, former agricultural expert in Edmund Stoiber´s unofficial "shadow cabinet" during the 2002 Bundestag elections.


The latest poll results are:

FGW (Feb. 11)
SPD 40%
CDU 37%
Greens 7%
FDP 7%
SSW 4%
NPD 3%
Others 2%

Infratest-dimap (Feb. 10)
SPD 41%
CDU 36%
Greens 7.5%
FDP 7%
SSW 3%
NPD 2.5%
Others 3%

Forsa (Feb. 8 )
SPD 40%
CDU 37%
Greens 7%
FDP 7%
SSW 3%
Others 6%

The SSW is the party of the Danish and Friesian minority and generally considered to be politically close to the SPD. As an ethnic minority party the SSW is excluded from the 5%-clause (the SSW hasn´t to receive at least 5% of the total vote to win seats).

[Middle-aged Europe]

You sure those polls aren't the same?

LOL, yes, I do.

[Middle-aged Europe]

CDU allies with the FDP right?

Usually, yes.

I think in the case of Schleswig-Holstein the FDP didn´t completely rule out the possibility of a coalition with the SPD, but everyone knows that this will be more or less unlikely.

As usually, it comes down to "SPD/Greens vs. CDU/FDP". If neither of those two combinations gets a majority, possible alternatives would include a SPD/CDU coalition, a SPD/FDP coaliton or possibly a SSW-backed SPD/Green coalition (?).

But currently it seems that the SPD/Green coalition will be re-elected for another term next sunday.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I think Germany should give Schleswig-Holstein back to Denmark.

But only under the condition that the U.S. gives California back to Mexico first.

I´m getting the impression that the only time an American heard about Schleswig-Holstein was in relation with the war of 1864 (?).

[Middle-aged Europe]

"There are three people who understand the Schleswig-Holstein problem.  One of them died.  One of them went mad.  And I've forgotten about it."

--Lord Palmerston.

I guess my impression was correct.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I assumed that all "border questions" were long settled, so I was a bit suprised about the course of the discussion.

Even the SSW has no separatist demands whatsoever.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Considering how close the election is, I´m still waiting for the first official results.

ARD/Infratest dimap (11:28 p.m.)
CDU: 40.2% / 30 seats
SPD: 38.7% / 29 seats
FDP: 6.6% / 4 seats
Greens: 6.2% / 4 seats
SSW: 3.6% / 2 seats
Others: 4.8% / 0 seats

ARD currently predicts a SPD/Green/SSW majority.


ZDF/FGW (9:58 p.m.)
CDU: 40.1% / 30 seats
SPD: 38.5% / 28 seats
FDP: 6.7% / 5 seats
Greens: 6.1% / 4 seats
SSW: 3.8% / 2 seats
Others: 4.8% / 0 seats

ZDF predicts a CDU/FDP majority.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I should have waited just a few minutes.

Preliminary official result:
CDU 40.2% / 30 seats
SPD 38.7% / 29 seats
FDP 6.6% / 4 seats
Greens 6.2% / 4 seats
SSW 3.6% / 2 seats
NPD 1.9% / 0 seats

SPD, Greens and SSW are holding a razor-thin majority.

[Middle-aged Europe]

That means: Grand coalition or SPD/Green government supported by the SSW (unless the recount gives the FDP a 5th seat again ...)

Personally, I don´t believe in a Grand coalition. This would probably mean that Heide Simonis has to give up the office of the PM, because the CDU would be the largest party in government. Why would she do this? Or would the CDU really accept a grand coalition led by Simonis?

A SSW-backed SPD/Green coaliton is currently the most likely option... provided that they indeed won´t lose a seat with the recount.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I thought that Lewis had said that the CDU had fallen on hard times.  Doing as well as they did, especially in the North of Germany, doesn't sound too bad to me. 

Rock on CDU!

Well, considering in what a bad shape the SPD was a year ago, the CDU has indeed fallen on "hard times". In May 2004 the CDU polled at 48% in Schleswig-Holstein, while the SPD was only at 33%. After the last year it´s already a "victory" for the SPD that they´re close behind the CDU now. It´s all relative, of course.

Btw, the next (and last this year) election will be held in North Rhine-Westphalia on May 22.  NRW is the most populous of the German states and ruled by the SPD since 1966. Polls show a close race similar to Schleswig-Holstein and the CDU seems to have a  chance to win an election there for the first time in nearly 40 years.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yeah, I noticed too that the CDU seems to be really pissed off by the SSW and I can´t say that I really like the discussion they´re sparking now.

On election night CDU members were interviewed who said things like "We are living in Germany and not in Denmark!". A few leading CDU representatives basically said the same, only in a more subtle manner.

Stop the Dane-bashing, which becomes so surprisingly popular now, and get over the fact that you "lost" an election for a change. What about winning a few seats more next time instead of blaming the Danes? Well, at least Edmund Stoiber blamed the FDP yesterday.

Does it appear that the SPD's falling polling numbers came as a result of rising unemployment, or was unemployment not much of a factor in the S-H election?  Also, what is the unemployment rate in NR-W?

According to the post-election polls the unemployment  played indeed a role in the unexpected weak results of the SPD. As far as I know the unemployment rate in NRW is lower than in Schleswig-Holwstein, but not much though.

Ironically, the Schleswig-Holstein election won´t create any momentum for neither party, because there are no real winners. The CDU surprisingly became the strongest party, but failed to take over the government, while the SPD will remain in power after heavy losses in the election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is the exemption for the SSV spelled out for that particular party, or could any party declare that they target Danish and/or Frisian minorities.  For example, could a party adopt the platform of the CDU or SPD, but with an emphasis on minority advocacy, name itself with the Danish equivalent of the German party name and contest elections.  Its single member could always sit with its sister party.

Indeed a good question. I just took a look at the electoral law of Schleswig-Holstein. In article 3, section 1 it is stated that "parties of the danish minority" are excluded from the 5%-clause. The SSW is not specifically mentioned. But it´s noteworthy that the plural is used ("parties" instead of "THE party of the danish minority").

I´m not totally sure about this, but I would say that in the case that another danish party is founded, it´s up to the election supervisor of the state to decide. If he or she refuses to grant the party this special status it would probably end up before the court.

Ironically, I met CDU members who already claim that the SSW is just a danish-speaking "spin-off" of the SPD.

Does the SSV contest elections for the German Parliament?

Not since 1961, I think.

They had a single MP in the first German Bundestag (1949-1953). But the electoral law was a bit different back then and somewhat favored regional parties.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, it certainly won´t improve their chances...

It has been a while since the last poll for the NRW elections was released. The latest came out on February 13 and showed CDU/FDP and SPD/Greens tied with 46% to 46%:

CDU 39%
SPD 37%
Greens 9%
FDP 7%
Others 8%

[Middle-aged Europe]

A new NRW state election poll was released just yesterday:

CDU 42%
SPD 36%
Greens 9%
FDP 7%
Others 6%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Some updates:


1) Citing the SSW in Schleswig-Holstein as a model, the Sorbs (a small slavic people living in the states of Brandenburg and Saxony) formed their own political party yesterday.

The constitution of Brandenburg states that the Sorbian minority is excluded from the 5% clause in state elections (the Sorbs just abstained from taking use of this exemption until now).


2) Nothing new from Schleswig-Holstein. It still seems the state will get a Grand coalition led by Peter Harry Carstensen (CDU).


3) Latest North Rhine-Westphalia polls:

Emnid (03/18)
CDU 43%
SPD 35%
Greens 10%
FDP 7%

Infratest-dimap (03/20)
CDU 42%
SPD 35%
Greens 10%
FDP 7%