2010 State Elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

Mar 20th Saxony-Anhalt state
Mar 27th BaWü state, Rhineland Pfalz state, Hesse local

Ironically, Saxony-Anhalt and Rhineland-Palatinate are two of the three German states without any Green MPs in state parliament (the third one is Mecklenburg which votes in fall).

So in March the Greens are probably gonna try to get the state premier's position in Baden-Württemberg while at the same they still have to get past the 5% threshold in the other two states. Chances look good though. The most recent Infratest polls had the Greens at 9% in Saxony-Anhalt (+5% from last election) and 16% in Rhineland-Palatinate (+11%).

[Middle-aged Europe]

The other bid story in BW is how the bottom has completely fallen out of CDU support. What have they done in pwer that has made them so unpopular? It wasn't so long ago that the CDU would routinely win absolute majorities in that state.

- Fallout from the CDU's unpopularity on the federal level.

- Stuttgart 21.

- Use of excessive violence against S21 protesters (which is a related, but different topic than Stuttgart 21 itself; you can support S21 and still be appalled by the police's actions).

- Perhaps there's also a correlation between the CDU's unpopularity, the Greens' popularity, and Mappus' extraordinarily strong support for nuclear power?

- Finally, Stefan Mappus just isn't a smart man. The CDU could deal with the fact that he's a hardliner. But they can't handle that he's a hardliner and dumb.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Chill people, Forsa is the only pollster that has the Greens ahead of the SPD so far. And maybe they're just doing it for the headlines it creates.

The other major pollsters (Emnid, Infratest, FGW) show the SPD between 27% and 30% and the Greens between 19% and 22% nationally. However, in Baden-Württemberg and Berlin various pollsters have shown the Greens as second-strongest or even strongest party. So those state-level numbers are a bit more plausible.

And yes, a CDU/Green coalition seems rather unlikely at the moment. The CDU currently does a lot of things which pisses off the Greens and the Greens are responding by attacking the CDU very hard. I guess relations between the two parties haven't been that bad in years.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Btw, election.de's most recent constituency projection (Sept. 25) gave 148 direct seats to the SPD, 132 to CDU/CSU, 16 to the Left Party, and 3 to the Greens (two in Berlin, one in Stuttgart): http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/content.pl?url=/img/poll/btw_wp_100925.html

The two in Berlin are Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg (won by the Greens in 2002, 2005, and 2009), although Ströbele probably won't run next time) and Tempelhof-Schöneberg (Renate Künast's district, although she might not run either if she becomes mayor of Berlin next year. ). Stuttgart I was almost won by Cem Özdemir last time around and with Stuttgart 21 and the Greens' extremely good poll numbers he actually could pull it off right now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Berlin state election (Infratest, 10/27)

Greens 30%
SPD 22%
CDU 20%
The Left 17%
FDP 3%

Possible coalitions:
Greens/SPD
Greens/CDU
Greens/Left

[Middle-aged Europe]

Everybody loves Guttenberg for some reason. He's our JFK: Originates from a wealthy and privileged family with previous involvements in politics, is young and charismatic, has an attractive (and similarly privileged) wife etc. I doubt it would happen though, not in 2013.

A CDU/Green coalition seems unlikely since representatives from both parties are increasingly ruling that option out right now. Commentators have noted that these are the two parties which are currently setting the agenda in Germany... and those are largely opposing agendas. The SPD is just there and takes the role of a bystander. FDP and Left have mostly become irrelevant.

[Middle-aged Europe]

To be fair though....Guttenberg did start the abolition of conscription, which is a near certainty within the next few months.

He was willing to publicly say it doesn't make sense (which is correct)....but it's something not many CDU or CSU members would have done.

However, this hasn't much to do with his popularity. I guess he would be just as popular without the suspension of conscription.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I think I was reading that Guttenberg was considered more of a rightwing purist who appeals to the more conservative elements in the CDU who find Merkel too centrist and wishy-washy. Sounds like he would be the last person who would ever be able to work with the Greens, let alone with the SPD in another "grand coalition".

Huh, what?

Guttenberg's relatively liberal, for a CSU politican anyway. In any case, you don't exactly appeal to the right wing by abolishing conscription, which was sort of a holy cow for conservatives.

Maybe you confuse him with Roland Koch (who recently left politics and is now chairman of a construction company) or his spritual successor Stefan Mappus (who's only slightly to to left of Darth Vader ).