2010 State Elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

The reality is that the SPD is in the strongest position to lead a government and that no government can be formed without them - unless of course the CDU and FDP made a coalition deal with the Linke Party (not likely lol).

Or the Greens change their mind on Jamaica at some point. The SPD must be pretty confident that it won't happen. Granted, it's definitely less likely than in Saarland or Hamburg.

I think they are playing the other parties off against each other until someone breaks under the pressure and agrees to a deal with the SPD that is on the SPD's terms.

I'd say the SPD tried a similar approach in Hesse. It ended in early elections which were won by CDU and FDP. Granted, much had to do with the impression that the SPD had broken (or lied about) their promises concerning a cooperation with the Left there. And the SPD had failed twice in installing a SPD/Green/Left government rather spectacularly.

Still, the SPD is playing a risky game. I see two dangers:

- The SPD could be perceived as unable (or unwilling) to from a government, despite the fact that they had three or four options to choose from.

- If this happens, the SPD could take the blame for letting Northrhine-Westphalia hang in a limbo for several months or even a year.

[Middle-aged Europe]

After the termination of the SPD/Green/FDP talks the Greens are now pissed that the SPD doesn't even want to try to install a SPD/Green minority government in NRW. Strategy and motives (if existent) of SPD leader Hannelore Kraft are still unclear. It almost seems as if she's already burnt out only a month after the state election.

In general, German politics are kind of depressing at the moment. Roland Koch resigns (not that I'll miss that SOB), Horst Köhler resigns, Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg was apparently thinking about resignation, the Merkel government is more concerned with being at each others' throats than anything else, and now Hannelore Kraft doesn't even want to govern NRW anymore. The political elite either consists of people who just don't feel like it anymore or who are actively working to bring their own party down in a somewhat masochistic way. Must be a good time for anarchists.

Well, at least the Greens are keeping their things together. Which still astonishes me. They're almost like an island of sanity and tranquility. But they're"only" polling at 15-18% so that doesn't change much about the overall situation. And compared to the rest of the bunch even the Left Party is in a very good shape. The Left appears to be the second-most stable party... how did it come to that?


Anyway, here's next week's SPIEGEL cover ("STOP IT!"):

[Middle-aged Europe]

What I find remarkable in German politics is how when  the "grand coalition" was formed in 2005 everyone said it could never last and that it was a recipe for disaster etc...but in the end it lasted a full four years and by the end of it Merkel was just about the most popular chancellor in post-war German history.

Then she finally got what she always wanted - a clear majority for a black/yellow "bumblebee" coalition with the FDP (watch out what you wish for - you might get it!). Everyone thought this would be easy street for Merkel since her CDU and the FDP are both right of centre parties that tend to see eye to eye on most things anyways - plus by being by far the biggest party in the coalition - the CDU now has most of the cabinet positions etc... and yet....ever since the bumble coalition took power - it has been straight downhill for Merkel. Now she is ridiculously unpopular getting some of the worst ratings ever for a CDU leader. It turns out that it was easier to get along with the SPD than it is with the FDP.

Can any Germans here explain what happened?  

Uh, well, fiirst of all, Merkel and Westerwelle aren't leaders. That didn't affect the Grand coalition so much because a Grand coalition needs a moderator and not a leader. Merkel is a good moderator, but a bad leader. And Westerwelle is more of a demagogue than a actual leader. He's good at holding speeches and staging events more than anything else.

In addition, both parties probably have drifted apart between 1998 and 2009. The FDP became more and more stubborn and tenacious with their "lower taxes! government is bad!" ideology during their decade as opposition party. At the same time, the CDU has undergone process a social-democratization (as some conservative critics call it) during Merkel's term as chairwoman... especially during the four years of Grand coalition.

So we have a coalition led by a moderator and a demagogue who are pursuing diametrically opposed goals, at least to some extent. Everything's a bit dysfunctional.

[Middle-aged Europe]

News from North Rhine Westfalia:

After weeks of very strange tactics of the Social Democrats, they now finally decided to build a minority government with the Greens. If they don't mess it up, Hannelore Kraft should be minister president before July the 13th.

Yeah, Kraft must have given in to the pressure from the Greens and the federal SPD. After everything that happened (or rather not happened) I'm not sure anymore if she's the right one for the job though. But it's either her or Rüttgers.

[Middle-aged Europe]

SPD and Greens would have a relatively solid majority with those unweighted numbers from FGW. Especially since the FDP doesn't win any seats. Say hello to Chancellor Gabriel and foreign minister Trittin.

These unweighted numbers wouldn't come true in an actual election though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I don't think it matters that the Left party will vote for their own candidate. To be President you need an absolute majority and there could be multiple ballots. I suspect that after the Left candidate gets drops after the first ballot - all those votes will go to Gauck on the second ballot.

A Jochimsen withdrawal directly after the first ballot is out of the question. There was some debate within the Left Party whether to withdraw her during a third ballot but the majority opinion was to keep Jochimsen in the race even then. Of course, it's entirely possible that they'll reconsider their position if it comes to that. Or maybe a split vote among the Left's delegates will occur. But Wulff has to miss a majority in the first two rounds first.

You have to understand that Joachim Gauck is the Left's nemesis. They basically see him as the German version of Joe McCarthy.

[Middle-aged Europe]

FDP drops below 5% for the first time... well, since when, actually? 1998?

EDIT: Ah, the FDP had dropped below 5% in late 2002 in the aftermath of the Möllemann scandal.


Forsa, 6/29

CDU/CSU 32%
SPD 27%
Greens 18%
Left 11%
FDP 4%

Since the FDP is eliminated, majority for SPD/Greens

[Middle-aged Europe]

First ballot result

Wulff 600
Gauck 499
Jochimsen 126
Rennicke 3
Abstentions 13

No majority for Wulff, second ballot necessary

[Middle-aged Europe]

Second ballot under way.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hannelore Kraft was just elected as state premier on the second ballot.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Another one bites the dust... according to media reports, Hamburg mayor Ole von Beust (CDU) plans to announce his resignation on sunday. There's also a referendum on a controversial school reform in Hamburg this sunday. However, in addition to this school reform, Beust seems to be as tired and worn out as Horst Köhler was.

And that's the fourth state premier the CDU loses within two months.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The interesting question is: Will the CDU/Green coalition survive this or could we even have early elections in Hamburg soon?

SPIEGEL Online reports that Greens are somewhat baffled that they were not informed by Beust about an impending resignation and latest opinion polls showed that a SPD/Green majority would be more likely than a CDU/Green majority at this point.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'm not German and can't claim to be a know it all about the inner workings of the FDP, but my impression is that even though both the LibDems and the FDP are part of the Liberal and Democratic grouping in the European parliement - they are very very different. The LibDems are seen as a centre left party and are largely descended from the SDP which was an off-shoot from the Labour Party. They have always been seen as being in between the Tories and Labour and a bit closer to Labour at that. The FDP on the other hand is a purely pro-business "party of doctors and dentists". They are seen to be to the RIGHT of the CDU. Back in the 60s and 70s the FDP allied itself with the SPD because they agreed with Brandt's "ostpolitik" and they had a larger "social liberal" wing back then. But over the last 30 years, the FDP has lost virtually all of those social liberals to the Greens or to the SPD and is now very much the party of the far right in Germany. This is why the FDP refuses to even consider a "traffic light" coalition with the SPD and Greens. They are proudly a party of pro-business right and they have enough trouble getting along with the CDU (who they regard as being too wishy-washy) never mind trying to govern with parties that are even further away from them.

Mostly correct I'd say. Actually, the FDP of the 1970s was roughly comparable to the contemporary Liberal Democrats. There was a major turning point when the party switched from a coalition with the SPD to a coalition with the CDU in 1982. As a result, many of the social liberals left the party (and some joined the SPD) that year.

I guess it's possible that 2010 will be for the Liberal Democrats what 1982 was for the FDP... more or less.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Berlin state elections (2011) poll by Forsa for the "Berliner Zeitung":

27% (+14) Greens
27%   (-4)  SPD
17%   (-4)  CDU
15%  (+2)  Left
  4%   (-4)  FDP
10%   (-4) Others

Lol

Possible coalitions: Green/SPD, SPD/Green, Green/CDU, SPD/CDU.

I would also like to see a breakdown of those 10% others... in particular the numbers for the Pirate Party, considering that Berlin has been their strongest state (3.4%) in the 2009 federal election.

I'd prefer a Green/SPD/Pirate coalition myself.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Forsa polling Berlin (city vote intentions)

Greens 27
SPD 26
CDU 17
Left 16
FDP 4
other 10

So close to a majority to the left of the SPD...

So, Greens/CDU, SPD/CDU, or Grand coalition?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Stuttgart 21 and the federal government's "new"* direction on nuclear power, I suppose. Let's the Greens shoot through the roof.

*  (let's say recently officialized instead of new)

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Greens in Baden-Württemberg also tend to be pretty "conservative" (well, at least pretty centrist), which helps in a largely conservative state.

Berlin: SPD and Left have been governing for nine years now, while the Greens as a opposition party are a fresh alternative to the worn-out state government. And I guess the Greens are a better alternative than the CDU, because nobody in Berlin takes the CDU serious anymore.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Its interesting that the most consistent pattern in all these German polls is that support for the FDP is down as much as 10% from the last election and support for the Greens is up by a similar amount. Do people think that there is actually a massive FDP to Green swing vote or is it more FDP voters have gone to the CDU and the CDU voters have gone Green or SPD and some SPD voters have gone Green etc...? and for that matter what would be the explanation for such a big FDP melt-down accompanied by a rise of the Greens? Do those parties actually fish from the same "pool" of voters?  

Maybe the voter transition analysis for the 2009 election gives some insight (Infratest dimap):

CDU/CSU
- Won 870,000 voters from the SPD.
- Lost 1,130,000 voters to the FDP, 60,000 voters to the Greens, and 40,000 voters to the Left Party.

FDP
- Won 1,130,000 voters from the CDU/CSU, 520,000 voters from the SPD, 20,000 voters from the Greens, and 20,000 voters from the Left Party.

SPD
- Lost 1,110,000 voters to the Left Party, 870,000 voters to the CDU/CSU, 860,000 voters to the Greens, and 520,000 voters to the FDP.

Greens
- Won 860,000 voters from the SPD and 60,000 voters from the CDU/CSU.
- Lost 130,000 voters to the Left Party and 20,000 voters to the FDP.

Left Party
- Won 1,110,000 voters from the SPD, 130,000 voters from the Greens, and 40,000 voters from the CDU/CSU.
- Lost 20,000 voters to the FDP.


The numbers for 2005:

CDU/CSU
- Won 640,000 from the SPD and 110,000 from the Greens.
- Lost 1,250,000 to the FDP and 280,000 to the Left Party.

FDP
- Won 1,250,000 from the CDU/CSU, 170,000 from the SPD, and 50,000 from the Greens.
- Lost 90,000 to the Left Party.

SPD
- Lost 960,000 to the Left Party, 640,000 to the CDU/CSU, 210,000 to the Greens, and 170,000 to the FDP.

Greens
- Won 210,000 from the SPD.
- Lost 220,000 to the Left Party, 110,000 to the CDU/CSU, and 50,000 to the FDP.

Left Party
- Won 960,000 from the SPD, 280,000 from the CDU/CSU, 220,000 from the Greens, and 90,000 from the FDP.


Sources: SPIEGEL special election issues, 2009 & 2005

[Middle-aged Europe]

* moderately amused at the existence of Die Linke-FDP swing voters.

They're practically non-existent though. With 48 million votes cast in the 2005 election, 90,000 FDP/Left Party swing voters translate to 0.19% of all votes. And in 2009 we're talking about 0.05%.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Who the hell could be a Linke-FDP swing voter? A wealthy Ossi who misses communism?

There are many possibilites. Someone who dramatically changed his politically views between the ages of 18 and 22? Or someone who is only marginally interested in political issues and party platforms and decides depending on which party leader he happens to like better as a person?

There are voters like that.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Berlin state election poll (Forsa, 10/01)

Greens 30%
SPD 26%
CDU 16%
Left 15%
FDP 3%

Possible coalitions:
Greens/SPD
Greens/CDU
Greens/Left

I dunno, is this the first poll where SPD + CDU fail to win a majority?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Granted, it's hearsay, but I heard from people who know people who know Wowereit personally that the guy's a complete asshole. Normally I would shrug it off, but since I heard similar things from different sources, something must be true about it.

This was my share of gossip for today.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Isn't that true of any and every state pm or federal minister? It takes a specific set of skills to get there. A very unpleasant set of skills.

Descriptions of Wowereit sounded exceptionally asshole-ish.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Baden-Württemberg state election poll (TNS Forschung)

CDU 34%
Greens 32%
SPD 19%
FDP 6%
Left 5%

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,722189,00.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

What do the Greens in Baden-Wurttemberg actually believe in? As far as I know BW has had a rightwing government ever since WW2! The latest round of polls points to a Green-SPD government with the Green as premier. what explains this?

Stuttgart 21. Greens oppose it, SPD support it. SPD's screwed.

Add the fact that Baden-Württemberg was always a Green stronghold. In all Bundestag elections since 1980, the Greens' result in Baden-Württemberg had always been better than the national one (or the West German one for that matter). 2009 election: 13.9% in Baden-Württemberg, 11.5% in West Germany, 10.9% nationally. In the SPD's case it's more of the opposite (generally weaker in B-W than nationally).

Historically, Baden-Württemberg was also the second German state where the Greens managed to enter the state parliament (in 1980, following Bremen in 1979). Today, some of Baden-Württemberg's larger cities also have Green mayors (Freiburg, Tübingen).

A major factor is certainly that the Baden-Württembergian Greens are one of the more "conservative"/centrist state chapters in the party (their leader Winfried Kretschmann is known as a devout Catholic, for example).