A 47-47 tie in the popular vote and an easy Biden victory in the Electoral College is however what I currently see as the most likely outcome.
So much wrong in this post.
Trump got 46.1% in 2016 as a fresh face, and 46.8% in 2020 as an
incumbent, but you think he'll top 47% as a retread under criminal investigation in 2024, and after all his anointed candidates collapsed in 2022?
Is there any reason other than "GOP good, Democrat bad" you would make such a prediction?
"Easy Dem EC win, tied PV": not possible unless California swings massively GOP while Texas flips, which is certainly not the modal outcome.
I would hope so but I also thought he would get his ass kicked in 2016 and 2020. For the life of me I don't see his appeal to anyone but I'm not going to underestimate him again.
100%
