GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Epaminondas]

Here are the gaps in votes in double-barrel Senate seats since 1980:

- Minnesota 2018: 150,000 voted both Klobuchar (D) and Housley (R), gap of 13.5 points

- Mississippi 2018: 51,000 voted for Wicker and Espy, or a gap of 9.3 points

- South Carolina 2014 : 20,000 voted Scott (R) and Hutto (D), gap of 9.5 points

- Oklahoma 2014: 2,000 voted Inhofe (R) and Connie Johnson (D), gap of 0.6 points

- New-York 2010: 100,000 voted Schumer (D) and DioGuardi (R), gap of 6.2 points

- Mississippi 2008: 83,000 voted Cochrane (R) and Musgrove (D), gap of 12.8 points

- Wyoming 2008: 6,000 voted Enzi (R) and Nick Carter (D), gap of 4.4 points

- Kansas 1996: 77,000 voted Roberts (R) and Docking (D), gap of 17 points

- Tennessee 1994: 52,000 voted Thompson (R) and Sasser (D), gap of 5.5 points

- California 1992: 555,000 voted split between Feinstein (D) and Herschensohn (R), gap of 11.4 points

- North Darkota 1992 (1 month apart): turnout drop of 47% make raw numbers unusable, but the gap was 11.8 points in favour of Conrad


That's an average voting gap of 9.3 and a median gap of 9.5.
What's more the gap for governor in Georgia (50k or 1.4 points) was overcome in every double-barrel Senate save one since 1980.
There's a chance.

[Epaminondas]

Good catches by MormDem and jfern, here's the updated list with are the two missing double-barrel races since 1992:


- Minnesota 2018: 150,000 voted both Klobuchar (D) and Housley (R), gap of 13.5 points

- Mississippi 2018: 51,000 voted for Wicker (R) and Espy (D), gap of 9.3 points

- South Carolina 2014 : 20,000 voted Scott (R) and Hutto (D), gap of 9.5 points

- Oklahoma 2014: 2,000 voted Inhofe (R) and Connie Johnson (D), gap of 0.6 points

- New-York 2010: 100,000 voted Schumer (D) and DioGuardi (R), gap of 6.2 points

- Mississippi 2008: 83,000 voted Cochrane (R) and Musgrove (D), gap of 12.8 points

- Wyoming 2008: 6,000 voted Enzi (R) and Nick Carter (D), gap of 4.4 points

- Kansas 1996: 77,000 voted Roberts (R) and Docking (D), gap of 17 points

- Tennessee 1994: 52,000 voted Thompson (R) and Sasser (D), gap of 5.5 points

- California 1992: 555,000 voted split between Feinstein (D) and Herschensohn (R), gap of 11.4 points

- North Darkota 1992 (1 month apart): turnout drop of 47% makes raw numbers unusable, but gap was 11.8 points in favour of Conrad


That's an average voting gap of 9.3 and a median gap of 9.5.

Thus in the past 25 years, a 5% Senate vote split has been the norm, easily enough for Georgia on paper.

[Epaminondas]

Given that she just drove her family business into bankruptcy that would be a hard sell

Wouldn't that make her more attractive to the GOP base now?

[Epaminondas]

Ossof runs.
Under pressure from Republicans to not blow GA-06, Handel runs.
We get a repeat of Ossof v. Handel, just statewide.
Two years later, Handel is defeated for reelection by Lucy McBath.

Funny idea. Déjà-vu all over again.

[Epaminondas]

Increasingly this is looking like a lockout in the jungle primary.
Collins 30
Loeff 20
Warnock 19
Lieberman 18

Will Matt Lieberman drop out as the deadline approaches, or will he fill his father's small shoes and undermine the Dems again?