Polish Politics and Elections

[Epaminondas]

So Tusk is now certain to become PM again? The 3 parties aiming to oust PiS obatin 54% of seats now, which is an insurmountable advantage.

Kind of ironic that this would be the 2nd time Tusk ended the PiS reign, he already did so in 2007 when Kacysnki himself was his predecessor as PM.

There is the chance that the PiS president ends up calling for new elections after first giving PiS the mandate for government (which would fail), but I think such an election would only reinforce the opposition’s position as they could easily hammer on PiS not willing to listen to the 53-54% that disagree with them and instead calling a costly new election.

Israel shows that doing this doesn't change opinions,  it just hardens the previous loyalties and makes everyone angrier.  You need to give people time, which Bibi sadly benefited from, after letting the shaky opposition into power for a brief window.

Fear runs deep in Israeli psyche though, in a way it doesn't in established Western democracies, so entrenchment may be context-specific.

We also have the example of the 2019 Istanbul mayoralty, where the dominant party re-ran elections for no good reason and got clobbered. (Not that it did much good in the long run, since the winner Imamoglu has been sentenced to gaol time...)
Then there's Sánchez gambit 4 months after the last GE, in which his coalition took serious losses too.

[Epaminondas]

Incumbent Sejm members who lost reelection:

Nice work.
Would you have the list of Senate races by closeness? I can't find it anywhere.

[Epaminondas]

Margins below 5%:
(5) PiS 0,32 over Senate Pact
(72) Senate Pact 1,42% over BS (without PiS candidate) (flip)
(30) PiS 1,68% over Senate Pact
(3) Senate Pact 2,07% over PiS (flip)
(31) PiS 2,08% over Senate Pact
(38) Senate Pact 2,20% over PiS (flip)
(47) PiS 2,22% over BS (without Senate Pact candidate)
(96) Senate Pact 3,30% over PiS
(18) Senate Pact 3,48% over PiS (flip compared to 2019 parliamentary election)
(63) Senate Pact 3,96% over PiS
(73) Senate Pact 4,41% over PiS (flip)

Nice work. I can complete the little map I am making.
The alliance did really well in close constituencies against incumbency, going 7/11 in close races.

If PO had cleaned up in Cracovia and Silesia and the Senate was sitting at 69-31, would the 2/3rds supermajority have tangibly helped?

[Epaminondas]

Have met the Polish ambassador to Lithuania recently at a do, a real sourpuss.
Didn't have the nerve to ask whether he was happy about the election results, but isn't it likely that most PiS diplomatic will be dismissed?

[Epaminondas]

The conservative media is out in full force against Tusk's bare-knuckled politics:
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/gangster-tactics-in-poland-recall-a-bygone-era/

https://brusselssignal.eu/2024/01/what-is-happening-in-poland-is-setting-a-dangerous-precedent-for-the-whole-of-europe-autocracy-in-the-name-of-liberalism-is-coming-to-a-parliament-near-you-soon/

https://www.courthousenews.com/polands-tusk-carries-out-government-purge-against-former-far-right-rulers/

I'm sceptical that Tusk's patchwork government can sustain this muscular "Iron Broom" strategy for long, especially after the EU funds are unlocked and once Third Way starts balking at social reforms.

[Epaminondas]

These fights with the PiS also masks how little he can otherwise do against Duda and the PiS dominated constitutional courts. Better to be seen fighting then being powerless.

What sort of crisis might ensue if Tusk declared noncompliance with the TK?

[Epaminondas]

Reading about some recent changes in the court system.

If judges now pick the composition of the Constitutional Court, but the judges are largely PiS friends, what difference would it make?

[Epaminondas]

Lawmakers from Poland's ruling coalition will submit a motion to put PiS-affiliated central bank chief Adam Glapiński before a state tribunal by the end of March, per state news agency PAP.

Is just more of Tusk spoiling for a fight with the archenemy to keep his voters motivated, or a legitimate concern about independence of the central bank?

[Epaminondas]

In the same way the Republicans have locked up 46% of the US voters, PiS has managed to harden its base to 34% of the electorate come hell or high water.

The party fragmentation makes rooting out PiS from power nearly impossible, except if:
- Konfederacija start eating into PiS margins
- Lewica leadership considers a merger with PO under a new name

Which is likelier?

[Epaminondas]

34% is not enough to win a majority. PiS has been rooted out of power without either of those happening.

In a parliamentary system with rivals winning 30% and 15% but refusing to merge, it might be possible with a few lucky breaks in split percentages.

If I remember, in 2023 PiS got the absolute majority of parliament seats in Lublin and Białystok with only ~42% of the vote there.