Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[omar04]

Dems Path to a majority:

Win:

ME-02
CT-05
All 4 uncalled PA seats as per NYT
MD-06
CO-03 and CO-08
AZ-04
WA-08 and WA-10
OR-04 and OR-06
NM-02
All 3 Nevada districts
IL-17
AK-AL

2 of NY-03, NY-04, NY-17, NY-18, NY-19, or NY-22
And all the safe D Cali seats plus CA-09, CA-13, CA-47, CA-49, and at least 1 other CA seat

Def not imposible but it’s a lot of dominoes and rn I still think Rs are favored

Hochul is already being blamed for losing the House by under performing in NY.

[omar04]

Dems Path to a majority:

Win:

ME-02
CT-05
All 4 uncalled PA seats as per NYT
MD-06
CO-03 and CO-08
AZ-04
WA-08 and WA-10
OR-04 and OR-06
NM-02
All 3 Nevada districts
IL-17
AK-AL

2 of NY-03, NY-04, NY-17, NY-18, NY-19, or NY-22
And all the safe D Cali seats plus CA-09, CA-13, CA-47, CA-49, and at least 1 other CA seat

Def not imposible but it’s a lot of dominoes and rn I still think Rs are favored

Hochul is already being blamed for losing the House by under performing in NY.

Didn't Schumer also underperform? It's by far his worst result other than 1998. And just barely above that.

Yeah, but the gubernatorial race has slightly more votes cast and slightly larger effect on the rest of the ticket.  Senate: 5,541,999 Gubernatorial: 5,732,787

I would also argue that Hochul's personal unpopularity is worse for Democratic prospects than Schumer.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-new-york-us-senate.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-new-york-governor.html

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/JoshSandersTV/status/1590355535920263168

I just hope Hobbs doesn't end up like Kate Brown popularity wise if she does end up winning.

[omar04]

Time for some statistics

The Average Deviation of Democrat vote so far from the 2020 Presidential Election is:
-0.82%

You could simply plaster Biden's vote share from 2020 and you would be very accurate on average.

Worse states for Democrats:

SD:-10
FL: -7
AL: -6
MS:-6
NY:-5

Best states for Democrats:

AK:+9
ND:+6
HI:+6
ME:+5

Thought experiment, all Midterms for Incumbent party since 1994 compared to the President.

Clinton 92: 43
DEM 94 :45

Clinton 96: 49
DEM 98: 47

Bush 00: 49
REP 02: 50

Bush 04:50
REP 06: 44

Obama 08:53
DEM 10: 45

Obama 12:51
DEM 14: 46

Trump 16:46
REP 18 :45

Biden 20: 51
DEM 22: 50

Guess which stick out and why.

I wonder how much of a role leaving more seats uncontested plays, especially in more recent years.

[omar04]

I imagine there are a fair number of votes left to be counted in New York, right? It would be odd if Schumer only won by 13, though I suppose Hochul could've dragged him down somewhat, but I'd say that's something to consider when it comes to the state of the House races there.

Yes, the senate is currently at 88% and the gubernatorial at 93% per the NYT.

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1590359880396832771?s=20&t=f2MteF6hDoqkl-UL...

That is huge. Congrats!

Interesting that KS reelects a D-gov while NV is probably not, even if CCM hangs on.

Laura Kelly dominated among white college educated voters.

The trend is therefore; College Educated goes Democrat, while non college educated of which Nevada is more full of is going Republican.

I love universal swing.

[omar04]

At this point, is there a chance Democrats hold the House? I guess this would just be too much to ask. But it would be beautiful.

I would bet against it.

[omar04]

Ugh, I really dunno why NY screwed that much. It's a blue states after all and the national environment isn't that bad. Something went wrong there and Dems need to get to the bottom of it.

The obvious answer is Cuomo. I couldn't tell you why Hochul is unpopular though

[omar04]

Ugh, I really dunno why NY screwed that much. It's a blue states after all and the national environment isn't that bad. Something went wrong there and Dems need to get to the bottom of it.

The obvious answer is Cuomo. I couldn't tell you why Hochul is unpopular though

Unlikely, Cuomo is gone for 15 months. That's a lifetime in politics. Possibly all the Democrats messed up with messaging, especially on the crime issue. And abortion rights were never in danger, even with Zeldin winning. Meanwhile, Schumer has lost a lot of appeal in rural upstate, as many predicted for years.

I meant obvious answer as in what most people will think of when asked that question. Cuomo also did do a lot of stuff going back years to hurt Democrats. For example, his judicial appointees definitely cost the Democrats a few Congressional districts earlier this. Earlier, he handed the state senate to the Republicans for several years with a gerrymander in exchange for a Democratic gerrymander of the state house that they solidly controlled. On top of that, he propped up the IDC to give Republicans control of the state senate after the gerrymander wasn't enough.

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/MassJumbo/status/1590447027221311488

[omar04]

A little off-topic, but Yvette Herrell conceded the NM-02 race. Dem pickup.

i was watching this race because one of my friends live there. NM-02 got taken out in exchange for weakening NM-03. Herrell wasn't the strongest candidate either https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/new-mexico/

[omar04]

Wait so how many phantom ballots are there in Colorado ?. As it just relegated to Boeberts seat ?

#stopthesteal

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/the_transit_guy/status/1590525738729734144

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1590749287754788871