COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Getting my first Pfizer dose on Friday. It might sound odd, but quite a number of people around me reported feeling sicker than media have made it seem. Some took more than a day or two to recover. Hearing these kinds of stories get me nervous, admittedly.

Are they younger [and/or females] then the average vaccinated? Because the younger people and females generally has better immune system then elder and males.

If anything, you should worry more (not really), if you have no symptoms at all, than more severe-than-average.

Roughly even number of males and females. They're in their 20's and 30's so they're on the younger side.

So are you implying that better immune system means higher chance of side effects? If so, that aligns with what I've read that women are more likely to feel effects than men are.

That's what the nurse said to me, but I don't know if it's really that simple. And on individual level, the noise should be high.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/if-you-dont-have-covid-vaccine-side-effects-are-you-still-protected/

That is why antibodies do not tell the whole story of how well an immune system is protected. For a preprint study recently posted online and not yet evaluated by outside experts, Wherry and his colleagues measured antibody and B cell levels in blood samples from 44 people receiving either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, taken at various times over the course of vaccination. The researchers primarily compared vaccine protection in individuals who had recovered from COVID-19 with those who had never been infected. They also found, however, that people who reported systemic side effects had slightly higher levels of antibodies but not higher levels of B cells. The contrast suggests that while these individuals may have mounted a stronger inflammatory response, they were not necessarily better protected against the coronavirus in the long run, Wherry says.

Many people will feel more side effects after the second shot of a two-dose COVID-19 vaccine, providing some reassurance. That shot tends to cause more side effects because the first dose primed the body for it, Shresta says. After the first exposure, the body accumulates a finite pool of memory B cells. With the second dose, she says, “we want to expand that population for later on, so upon real infection, the immune response will be faster, bigger and better.”

Wherry says that second shot may produce bigger side effects in some people because those memory B cells have already been established in response to the first exposure. “The inflammation quickly shifts [B cells] over to these antibody-producing factories,” he adds.

While researchers do not fully understand why only some people have side effects from COVID-19 vaccines, epidemiological data suggest some trends. “Women tend to have more vigorous immune responses than males, and young people tend to respond more than the elderly population,” Shresta says.

And the elderly as a whole report fewer side effects than younger people do, but that could have more to do with the way the immune system ages rather than how well the available COVID-19 vaccines work. “The efficacy in the elderly is great,” Wherry says. “It reflects that these are really good vaccines [that produce] antibody levels that are 100-fold to 1,000-fold more than you need. So even in the elderly, if you lose five- or 10-fold [of that antibody level], it’s like a tree falling in the forest; it doesn’t really matter.”

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The Biden Administration got it done ahead of schedule. Actually didn't expect this when he made the promise of 100 million last year.

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1385269414564597764

Lower the expectations. Do what was in fact expected. Profit (if MSM plays along as they did) They are as responsible for that as Trump was in April 2017...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Attention Biden and CDC:
https://twitter.com/scottlincicome/status/1391068289841893378

Anyways, who are the audience CDC tries to appeal to? It seems like the ones who are already vaccinated and who would wear mask outside even on a desert island...



If media wasn't unbiased, it would be a big fat catastrophe for Biden. But they aren't, so it isn't.


Thanks to Trump, Biden inherited one of few large nations that basically almost didn't have [compared to the rest of the world] that many constrains on amount of the vaccines. The only thing he needed to do is to deliver and to convince those who hesitate to take them.

Biden/CDC/Fauci has failed miserably so far.

• Science says you don't need masks (and never really needed outside any way) and mostly can get back to normal, once you're fully vaccinated.
• People say, that "you'll still need mask"/not being able get to normal discourage them from vaccinating themselves.
• Real data says, it is the way.

Stil, Biden wears mask when outside  🤷‍♂️ and Fauci, while nuking trust in J&J, defends CDC's anti-science guidelines that say 3-years old children to wear mask in summer camps... You f**king kidding me? 🤷‍♂️ And I'm not talking about all the Dem-run states that still keep minority kids out from schooling...

By the way, the other nations are Israel and Britain. UK had *same* share of vaccine hesitant people in November, but by having a clear and fairly simple re-opening plans they managed to deal with that. Israel has waaay more problem than US and UK ever did.

I mean, f**king Israel!! Ortodox Jews are like the most crazy religious lunatics in the Western World. If Bibi managed to persuade them, Biden surely can persuade anyone.

But he needs... To Start. To follow. F**king science. And present a simple plan for getting back to normal.

Yet, despite all this, Biden is/was sitting on tons of vaccines, while poor non-white countries desperately need them... Hm. Hmmm.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Most of the vaccine hesitant are republicans, it's a bit harder to persuade them so it's not as straight forward as you make it out to be

Yes, most are republicans. But only by following the science that is allowing the fully vaccinated people to stop wearing mask, you'll get an 18% points increase among unvacinated republicans. Ten millions of people. By introducing one *very* simple and safe promise.




And if you relaxed even more constraints, you'd likely get even larger increase. Like allowing attending sport, religious or other events and what not. Though, perhaps, it's already too late. As it getting better, as the states open up anyway, some will probably get even more reluctant to vaccinate themselves. Should've been implemented a 1-3 months ago.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1392890690108104706

CDC finally starts to partly follow science 🤌

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I won't wear a mask to church of course because its obvious there I'm not a Republican or live music shows once those start again because no Republicans would attend the ones I do. Otherwise I'm still masking up and making it dead clear I didn't vote for Trump.

A lot of Trump voters wear masks. To be 100% safe, you should wear the Satan Shoes! 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Or like school re-openings in Florida of DeSantis would backfire.


Kind reminder, that Dems still keep brown kids out of education loop.

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/17/e2022376118
Learning loss due to school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic

School closures have been a common tool in the battle against COVID-19. Yet, their costs and benefits remain insufficiently known. We use a natural experiment that occurred as national examinations in The Netherlands took place before and after lockdown to evaluate the impact of school closures on students’ learning. The Netherlands is interesting as a “best-case” scenario, with a short lockdown, equitable school funding, and world-leading rates of broadband access. Despite favorable conditions, we find that students made little or no progress while learning from home. Learning loss was most pronounced among students from disadvantaged homes.

Even in Netherlands' "Best-Case Scenario" kids learned nothing. Imagine, what damaged has been done to minority kids in US by racist cunning Democrats.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/GovMurphy/status/1393289849424261130

Makes sense actually. Relaxing with clear simple goals. CDC has been a disgrace, but has been shielded by MSM in order to sink Trump.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/GovWhitmer/status/1393234054703681539

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/KristinaRex/status/1394311176893444099


https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1394320776388562950

I've got to break free
God knows, God knows I want to break free!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1394749773140344833


https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1394730325612404741

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1394749891927285767

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/17/nyregion/vaccinated-masks-cdc.html
They’re Vaccinated and Keeping Their Masks On, Maybe Forever
Face coverings have been a political flash point for more than a year. But now, the backlash is directed at people who don’t plan to take them off.

Whenever Joe Glickman heads out for groceries, he places an N95 mask over his face and tugs a cloth mask on top of it. He then pulls on a pair of goggles.

He has used this safety protocol for the past 14 months. It did not change after he contracted the coronavirus last November. It didn’t budge when, earlier this month, he became fully vaccinated. And even though President Biden said on Thursday that fully vaccinated people do not have to wear a mask, Mr. Glickman said he planned to stay the course.

In fact, he said, he plans to do his grocery run double-masked and goggled for at least the next five years.

Even as a combination of evolving public health recommendations and pandemic fatigue lead more Americans to toss the masks they’ve worn for more than a year, Mr. Glickman is among those who say they plan to keep their faces covered in public indefinitely.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/cdc-mask-guidelines-confuse-americans/2021/05/15/e6d37726-b4f1-11eb-ab43-bebddc5a0f65_story.html
Confused Americans grapple with CDC’s new mask rules: ‘It caught us off guard’

Rebecca Kee, another San Francisco resident, has seen how divisive the new guidance can be.

After the CDC said fully vaccinated people don’t need masks outside last week, she decided to walk barefaced in her neighborhood.

Then a man with two children, all masked, darted into the street to avoid her. When she told him there was new guidance, the man told Kee she was lying and he hoped her family would get sick and die.

“It shook me to my core and made me really feel horrible,” said Kee, 38. “I think in a time of deep instability and real fear, the mask became a symbol of caring for your neighbor that we all clung to.”

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1398061918204596228

Role model Trumpian Corona Populist.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1397253170380689410

Yes. The difference between D and R is that

• Democrats mostly have worn a mask often/all the time despite the science, in according to CNN. All for nothing.
• Republicans mostly has worn a mask when one needs to, according to science, despite to CNN false recommendation. Common sense.

_{Same about re-opening of the schools.}


It reminds me of Nate Silver's observation/anecdote.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1385199695958614018

25% outdoors is wa-a-a-ay too much, but after a year of lies about masks, it's understandable.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

VRB, are you trying to say that, all else being equal, wearing a mask while infected with Covid does not reduce the risk of spreading the disease to someone else?

Sigh... No, I'm saying that you shouldn't have killed the economy by imposing totally ineffective mask mandates, though the schools closures/no fast re-openings were even more stupidly anti-science and devastating for kids.

Science has been pretty clear. You only needs mask if you can't keep a physical distancing [99%] inside. And basically it is what people have done in states with no mask mandate/less restrictions. And now you have the data, that shows that there is no significant difference between less och more restricted states. That is that the [mostly Democrat] states with more restrictions kept poors, especially kids, down in vain.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

A long thread about effectiveness of restrictions.


https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1397230161926496265

[...]

https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1397282110264782853

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Delta variant is more likely to put a young adult in the hospital, though the chances are still small. If you're vaccinated your chances of that are still very small. This is just what I'm hearing from the doctors on TV.

Uhh....
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1407033868914499585
This information about the Delta variant makes me start favoring the reimplementation of preventative lockdowns.

These stats make no sense to me.  They appear to be showing that the overall CFR of the delta variant is only about 0.1%.   That alone seems very unlikely to me, not to mention several other weird anomalies in this table.

I can't see with strange with that stat, because the un-vaccinated tend to be WAY younger and healthier than those who are vaccinated. With other words, there is a strong selection and self-selection bias.

I don't know about Delta, but here is "old" numbers (as for 1st Dec 2020) for Americans.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mortality-risk-estimator




CFR for an average 50-years old American (given a positive test) was ~0.3% (0.2% for female and 0.4% for male). For an Average American. I assume that people with underling medical condition are much more likely to be vaccinated. That is the CFR for a ~healthy un-vaccinated 50-years old is likely to be under 0.1% for "normal" variant. Probably somewhat higher for Delta.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Honestly at this point I think nature is deliberately trolling humanity with all the variants

A more transmissible strains were expected from day 1. And usually less deadlier, albeit it seems not be the case with delta/alpha etc (not enough data to be sure though). The effectiveness of the vaccines are so far much better then expected.

Well... soon we'll have [much] more data.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

One of the many reasons to be skeptical of Feigl-Ding's "reporting":

https://twitter.com/Ryan_Mac_Phd/status/1326505105106083842
In November of last year he was (and probably still is!) pushing a lie that COVID-19 can transmit through farts, and that we'd need N95 underwear.

He does not know what he's talking about. Stop listening to him.

I you don't use triple underwear masking, BRTD will assume, you're Trump supporter.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I had a co-worker at my job today tell me they might start wearing a mask again because they are concerned about the Delta variant. People seem to be truly terrified over this.

Mask fearmongering has already cost Biden (and Americans) a bit, both economically - it's not a coincidence that CDC:s flip-flop on masks came after disastrous job numbers - and vaccination wise - people didn't have enough incentive to vaccinate themselves.

Let's hope, this time they will follow the science and use it as an incentive for people to vaccinate  themselves, not "force" vaccinated people to mask themselves/stay home out the work/school out of fear because of an idiotic fearmongering a la forumlurker.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1427270229349048326
Yeah, this (except a possibly premature vaccination of the kids).


Biden inherited a Vaccine Machine from Trump, but has been so far a disastrous. Had such an advantage vs Europe, but didn't manage to exploit it. Unsurprisingly, given that a wearing of useless masks still takes a lot of oxygen in Democrats' public messaging.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Pass on Covid 3rd Booster, don't need it, my Red blood cells are done after first vaccine Jansen

#prayForOlawakandi

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1424774759787769856


https://news.yahoo.com/rashida-tlaib-spotted-dancing-maskless-234521304.html
Rashida Tlaib spotted dancing maskless at large indoor gathering in CDC 'orange' zone

Rep. Rashida Tlaib danced maskless next to members of a large indoor crowd during a wedding in a county where the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance calls for indoor masking.

The Michigan Democrat was captured on video in the Instagram story of Bassam Saleh, a Dearborn, Michigan band that plays weddings. The video shows a maskless Tlaib posing for pictures and dancing amongst the crowd at the large indoor gathering Sunday.

In a separate post, Bassam Saleh tags the location of the wedding as Ford Community & Performing Arts Center, a venue in Dearborn, Michigan. Dearborn is located in Wayne County, which is currently rated as an orange zone by the CDC. Orange indicates a county with "substantial" COVID-19 transmission, one of two risk categories the CDC guidelines call for indoor masking for people regardless of their vaccination status.

The video comes on the same day that Tlaib was critical of Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul on social media after Paul shot a video encouraging Americans to resist new CDC guidelines.

In response to the Republican lawmaker's video, Tlaib posted a map of Kentucky showing many of the state's counties in the elevated CDC risk categories.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1427270229349048326
Yeah, this (except a possibly premature vaccination of the kids).


Biden inherited a Vaccine Machine from Trump, but has been so far a disastrous. Had such an advantage vs Europe, but didn't manage to exploit it. Unsurprisingly, given that a wearing of useless masks still takes a lot of oxygen in Democrats' public messaging.

Biden woke up, finally!


https://twitter.com/AP/status/1428065924737818625