NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/21/nevada-ndas/
Nevada Democratic Party moves to muzzle election workers
The Democratic Party of Nevada is asking volunteers to sign nondisparagement agreements.

LAS VEGAS — The Democratic Party of Nevada wants to avoid the kind of embarrassments that plagued the Iowa caucuses. One way it hopes to accomplish that goal: Non-disclosure agreements that prohibit election volunteers from saying anything that might harm the party’s reputation.

As election volunteers stream into party headquarters near the Las Vegas Strip to pick up their election materials, including iPads that have been programmed to tally the caucus results, they’re being asked to sign a lengthy legal document prohibiting them from saying anything that might “impair or otherwise adversely affect the goodwill or reputation” of the party, according to the document viewed by The Washington Post. The agreement also prevents volunteers from speaking to the press and requires them to report any run-ins with reporters to higher ups, threatening legal action for any lack of compliance.

The unusual move to muzzle election workers has already caused at least three volunteers who spoke to The Post to quit in protest.

“I think it’s shady,” said Ziad Doumani, a retired firefighter and student who lives in Henderson, Nev., and volunteered to run one of the caucuses. While Doumani himself has not been asked to sign the NDA — so far, it has been reserved for “site leaders” who have shown up to pick up the materials — he said the lack of transparency is disturbing. “Why can’t we talk about it? Why are they being so secretive?”

They want to rig it!   

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/22/nevada-caucuses-live-updates/
What if there’s a tie at a Nevada caucus precinct? Enter a deck of cards.

According to Nevada State Democratic Party rules, ties will be broken by what is called the “Game of Chance,” a Vegas-influenced twist on Iowa’s coin toss. Each tied group will draw one card from a deck of cards, and the high card determines the winner. Aces are high.

You read that correctly. The state party is distributing an unopened deck of cards to each precinct location, with very specific guidelines for how to proceed in the case of a tie:

“The deck of cards should be shuffled by a Precinct Chair or Site Lead at least seven times before use, and all extra cards (Jokers & Directional Cards) should be removed,” the party states.

“The results of the tiebreaker as well as which group pulled what particular card, shall be recorded and reported to the Nevada State Democratic Party.”

In case two parties pull cards of the same rank, the suit order will determine who wins, from highest to lowest: spades, hearts, diamonds, clubs.

Nevada 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1231307100514635776

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Yeah, Steve Kornacki is saying the exit/entrance poll is only early vote.

According to meh polls early vote was supposed to be bad for Bernie, so...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1231312331344416771

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/nevada-democratic-caucuses/card/1582395516049

Nevada Says Counting Will Be Slower Than Last Time

In hopes of avoiding the sort of embarrassment triggered by a results-reporting debacle following Iowa’s Feb. 3 caucuses, Nevada Democrats held classes this week to train volunteers on a new software tool to calculate totals from midday caucuses in places like schools, community centers and casinos. In 2016, we had a winner shortly after 5 p.m. EST. but this time, results may not come quickly.

“The Nevada Democratic Party’s number one priority is accuracy,” spokeswoman Molly Forgey said in a statement. “While the additional reporting requirements will slow the process from prior caucuses, our plan is to be able to release results on Caucus Day.”

The Nevada State Democratic Party also said it is watching out for the potential spread of false information about the caucus process, and is encouraging anyone who might notice such suspicious activity to report it.

“Our team across the state is working to make sure Nevada Democrats have the correct information they need to participate in the caucus process,” said a post on the state party’s official Twitter account on Saturday. The state party’s post didn’t say that it was responding to any specific issue. Rather, it appeared to be aimed at encouraging general awareness.

Nevada Democrats Say They Have Processed Nearly All Early Ballots

The Nevada State Democratic Party said it had processed all the roughly 75,000 early vote ballots, and data entry was completed ahead of its caucuses Saturday.

State party spokeswoman Molly Forgey, in a statement Saturday morning, said the results from four days of early voting will be included in caucus day results today as planned.

"When Nevadans show up to their precinct today to caucus, their neighbors’ early votes will be counted alongside them," she said. "Massive turnout, particularly on the final day of early voting, has meant lots of time-consuming data entry."

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

With 7 of 2097 Precincts Reporting - 0.33% | 5% expected vote



Sanders, Bernie 42.39%
Biden, Joe 21.6%
Steyer, Tom 15.49%
Warren, Elizabeth 8.56%
Buttigieg, Pete 5.16%
Klobuchar, Amy 4.89%
Uncommitted 0.95%
Yang, Andrew 0.68%
Gabbard, Tulsi 0.14%
Bennet, Michael 0.14%
Delaney, John 0%
Patrick, Deval 0%


https://elections.ap.org/dailykos/results/2020-02-22/state/NV

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1231320106975711233

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1231322331764518912

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

As a Warren supporter, sigh:

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1231321280395304964?s=20

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1231322948738441216

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Does anyone know if the early votes are already included in those NYT numbers ?

The answer to your real question is... ButtiPete is done.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1231331390865596416

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Why are Latinos so pro-Bernie? Does anyone have a serious answer besides tHeY aRe DiSpRoPoRtIoNaTeLy YoUnG? That's not enough to explain these numbers. This is like Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton with the Black vote.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/nevada-caucuses-2020/#261895

CLARE MALONE 4:31 PM

This is an idle thought that’s still forming, but I wonder if Sanders’s likely win and his campaign’s focus on Latino voters in the state will change the way that Democratic campaigns approach going after the Latino community in the future. It’s been historically more difficult to court that community because the parties haven’t put a lot of energy into bilingual campaign efforts. But this election feels different on that front.

SARAH FROSTENSON 4:33 PM

Especially given his strategy in California, Clare. Sanders has really doubled down on Latino outreach efforts in that state, and that could prove decisive on Super Tuesday.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Give me a single reason warren should stay in race

CoMproMise CanDIdate!  >>>

NATE SILVER

It’s not clear to me how eager Warren would be to stay in the race if her chances of winning seem remote. Candidates differ a lot on what they do in that circumstance. The calculation could be more complicated this year because of the possibility of a contested convention.

LAURA BRONNER

The other thing about Warren is that if it looks like a contested convention might be on the horizon, she might try to stick around as a consensus candidate. Back in October, Julia and I found that a large share of other candidates’ supporters were also considering Warren. But that was at the high point of her support; now, while Morning Consult, for instance, has her as the top second choice for Sanders supporters, she’s not quite as popular with other candidates’ supporters.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Bernie might just end up hitting >60% at this point. Absolute landslide.

Russians are unstoppable.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1231343275979620354

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It's glorious watching James Carville, Joy Reid, and Chris Matthews cry on MSNBC.

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1231344333586124806

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Your favorite President congratulates Bernie and tells him be aware that the establishment might steal it yet again!


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1231366964611866625



https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1231305812879929344
https://twitter.com/shaunking/status/1231298355701207041

Hell yeah!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

From here https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/23/us/politics/2020-nevada-caucus-winners.html
How Bernie Sanders Won Nevada

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So was turnout good?

2008 118K (population 2.61 millions)
2016 84K ( 2.92 millions)
2020 ~100K (~3.08 millions + Early voting (+Same Day???))