NBC/WSJ: Biden +6, Sanders +4, Warren +3, Buttigieg +1

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

A Gold Standard A/B pollster.



It is pretty much where I think the race is/will be at election day. Trump is underdog, but

    LV = 1-2% to Trump
             +
  Trump having 2-4% EC superiority.

= it's tossup/tilt Trump with anyone, but Biden. But, of course, it a lo-o-ong way there. A lot can and will change.



These numbers are by the way pretty close to RCP h2h


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_warren-6251.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_buttigieg-6872.html

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

^Their logic: Polls were wrong in 2016 (even though national polls were actually fairly accurate) -> Polls are always wrong (even though they weren’t in 2018)

FWIW, I already described my "logic". Nothing to do with polls being wrong. Nor I said the polling was good.


"Tipping point" was about -3% (vs nation) for Trump in 2016. So far most polling shows that Trump's electoral college superiority persists if not enlarges.
RV vs real turnout usually hurts GOP by ~1%.
We are now in the middle(end) of Impeachment Saga.


= no one, but Biden (and Bloomberg?) can feel safe with polling as it is right now.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

^Their logic: Polls were wrong in 2016 (even though national polls were actually fairly accurate) -> Polls are always wrong (even though they weren’t in 2018)

Well.

By the way polls in many swing states in 2018 were wrong.