NBC/WSJ: Biden +6, Sanders +4, Warren +3, Buttigieg +1

[OneJ]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-wsj-poll-country-remains-divided-over-trump-s-impeachment-n1128326

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1223969609155522562

[bilaps]

It really shows how this impechment thing is another political own goal by the democrats. After all of this in a poll which shows them beating Trump with no less than 46% of the vote, only 46% support removing him from office.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It really shows how this impechment thing is another political own goal by the democrats. After all of this in a poll which shows them beating Trump with no less than 46% of the vote, only 46% support removing him from office.

Not necessarily.  It's understandable to believe that someone should be voted out of office at the next election, but be hesitant to remove them in the middle of a term.  I knew some people in Wisconsin who felt this way about Scott Walker during the recall attempt.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, contrary to other polls showing improvement since impeachment,  this one shows the opposite. I guess a 2008 wave can happen

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

A Gold Standard A/B pollster.



It is pretty much where I think the race is/will be at election day. Trump is underdog, but

    LV = 1-2% to Trump
             +
  Trump having 2-4% EC superiority.

= it's tossup/tilt Trump with anyone, but Biden. But, of course, it a lo-o-ong way there. A lot can and will change.



These numbers are by the way pretty close to RCP h2h


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_warren-6251.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_buttigieg-6872.html

[wbrocks67]

The question shouldn't be asked "Should he be removed from office" because people may hate him but still not want him removed (may want to vote him out)... it should be worded as like "do you personally feel he deserves to be removed" or something like that.

[SN2903]

Good numbers for Trump overall

[2016]

Trump at 46 % Job Approval Nationally. That's pretty decent.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I know the people saying this are partisan Trumpers but how is being down 6 and 4 to the two dem front runners good?

[MT Treasurer]

^Their logic: Polls were wrong in 2016 (even though national polls were actually fairly accurate) -> Polls are always wrong (even though they weren’t in 2018)

[Frenchrepublican]

I know the people saying this are partisan Trumpers but how is being down 6 and 4 to the two dem front runners good?

These numbers are not good for him by most standards, but they're a bit better than previous NBC/WSJ numbers, in october Trump was down by -9 in the same poll thus you have a slight trend in his favour over the past few months, that's why some republicans are happy with these results

[junior chįmp]

Trump is down 6% with a good economy. What happens when the economy goes down like it will soon?

[2016]

I know the people saying this are partisan Trumpers but how is being down 6 and 4 to the two dem front runners good?

GWB was losing to Kerry, Edwards, Dean at this Point in 2004 by a similar margin YET he managed to win this thing in the end.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

^Their logic: Polls were wrong in 2016 (even though national polls were actually fairly accurate) -> Polls are always wrong (even though they weren’t in 2018)

FWIW, I already described my "logic". Nothing to do with polls being wrong. Nor I said the polling was good.


"Tipping point" was about -3% (vs nation) for Trump in 2016. So far most polling shows that Trump's electoral college superiority persists if not enlarges.
RV vs real turnout usually hurts GOP by ~1%.
We are now in the middle(end) of Impeachment Saga.


= no one, but Biden (and Bloomberg?) can feel safe with polling as it is right now.

[junior chįmp]

I know the people saying this are partisan Trumpers but how is being down 6 and 4 to the two dem front runners good?

GWB was losing to Kerry, Edwards, Dean at this Point in 2004 by a similar margin YET he managed to win this thing in the end.

Big difference: GWB inherited a minor recession/slowdown at the beginning of his term but the economy started to boom by 2004. Even then, it was still pretty close.

Trump inherited a good economy and has been desperately trying to maintain it well past its business cycle:

With the latest GDP estimates in hand for Q4, the Duncan Leading Indicator suggests to us the economy just might be heading for its peak. The year-over-year change in it has now been negative for all of 2019 (which, not coincidentally, matches the behavior of the yield curve dating back to around November 2018), with that comparison accelerating on the downside particularly over the last three months of last year.

https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/02/01/duncan-says-one-thing-chicago-doesnt-really-say-something-else/

https://twitter.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1223772573193736192?s=19

[bilaps]

It really shows how this impechment thing is another political own goal by the democrats. After all of this in a poll which shows them beating Trump with no less than 46% of the vote, only 46% support removing him from office.

Not necessarily.  It's understandable to believe that someone should be voted out of office at the next election, but be hesitant to remove them in the middle of a term.  I knew some people in Wisconsin who felt this way about Scott Walker during the recall attempt.

Removing someone from office midterm being exactly the point of impeachment and voting someone out being the republican talking point at this moment.

[Adam Griffin]

It really shows how this impechment thing is another political own goal by the democrats. After all of this in a poll which shows them beating Trump with no less than 46% of the vote, only 46% support removing him from office.

I imagine there are some underlying reasons behind the "low" remove number. Obviously the GOP has no alternative considerations to make, so they will all say no to removal. Democrats, however, have varying viewpoints on this. Certainly not a huge number, but you have people like me who would be against removal for tactical reasons (believing it's better for the downballot for him to be in office in November; Atlas mindset - def not a lot in this category) as well as people who consider how much more effective and potentially awful somebody like Pence would be if he assumed the presidency.

Long story short: in the spirit of what the impeachment proceedings embodied (i.e. Trump is a felonious cretin who needs to go), I'd be surprised if a nominal majority didn't actually agree with removal - there's just a small segment of people (3-5%) who oppose it for the above-mentioned reasons.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I know the people saying this are partisan Trumpers but how is being down 6 and 4 to the two dem front runners good?

6% is not great. 4% against the most likely nominee is a great position to be in. It's like when you say "if you told [head coach] before the game that he would only be down three with the ball and a minute to go, he would take that 100 times out of 100".

With Trump's unpopularity, he should be getting blown out. But if a great campaigner only has to move the needle 2-3 points in eight months and he hasn't even begun to unleash, that's a pretty satisfying position to be in.

I still am way more scared of Bernie than Biden, but the media clearly hates them both. I just think Bernie will be much more difficult to move that needle against.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden being at 50% and ahead by more than three points is a very good sign, those are probably the benchmarks of national polls that suggest a Democratic electoral college win. Sanders isn't that far off either. But of course, somehow this is a good poll for Trump.

[junior chįmp]

Biden being at 50% and ahead by more than three points is a very good sign, those are probably the benchmarks of national polls that suggest a Democratic electoral college win. Sanders isn't that far off either. But of course, somehow this is a good poll for Trump.

Everything is good for Trump:

1) Disastrous midterms despite solid economic fundamentals is good for Trump
2) Impeachment good for Trump
3) Low approvals good for Trump
4) Being behind in GE polling is good for Trump

[Annatar]

What's interesting is both the ABC and NBC polls are basically showing the same results they did in November of 2016, the last NBC poll in 2016 done during Nov 3-5 had Clinton leading Trump 48-43, this poll with Biden leading Trump 50-44 is nearly identical to that. The ABC/WaPo tracking poll done during Nov 3-6 had Clinton leading Trump 49-46, their latest poll has Biden leading Trump 50-46.

Even the last IBD/TIPP poll had Clinton leading Trump 43-42 by 1%, their latest poll has Biden leading Trump by 49-48, also by 1%.

The big difference is with Fox and LA Times, the last Fox poll had Clinton leading by 4%, their latest poll has Biden up 9%, a big difference, and the LA times stands out the most, their last poll had Trump +3, their latest poll has Biden up 9%, a massive 12% difference.

[SN2903]

Biden being at 50% and ahead by more than three points is a very good sign, those are probably the benchmarks of national polls that suggest a Democratic electoral college win. Sanders isn't that far off either. But of course, somehow this is a good poll for Trump.

Everything is good for Trump:

1) Disastrous midterms despite solid economic fundamentals is good for Trump
2) Impeachment good for Trump
3) Low approvals good for Trump
4) Being behind in GE polling is good for Trump

Being down 4 with 9 months left with no nominee and not even starting to define your opponent is bad? We also know if it says he's down 4 it's like even or 1.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden being at 50% and ahead by more than three points is a very good sign, those are probably the benchmarks of national polls that suggest a Democratic electoral college win. Sanders isn't that far off either. But of course, somehow this is a good poll for Trump.

Everything is good for Trump:

1) Disastrous midterms despite solid economic fundamentals is good for Trump
2) Impeachment good for Trump
3) Low approvals good for Trump
4) Being behind in GE polling is good for Trump

Being down 4 with 9 months left with no nominee and not even starting to define your opponent is bad? We also know if it says he's down 4 it's like even or 1.

Trump hasnt lead in a single poll, the only reason why Bush W came back was due to the Reagan funeral, the weakness of John Edwards on foreign policy and the Bin Laden tape. Those are structural advantages that Trump doesnt have. Obama had 6% unemployment rate and won despite that. Trump has 3% unemployment and only has his tax cuts and corruption

[junior chįmp]

Biden being at 50% and ahead by more than three points is a very good sign, those are probably the benchmarks of national polls that suggest a Democratic electoral college win. Sanders isn't that far off either. But of course, somehow this is a good poll for Trump.

Everything is good for Trump:

1) Disastrous midterms despite solid economic fundamentals is good for Trump
2) Impeachment good for Trump
3) Low approvals good for Trump
4) Being behind in GE polling is good for Trump

Being down 4 with 9 months left with no nominee and not even starting to define your opponent is bad? We also know if it says he's down 4 it's like even or 1.

"Define your opponent"

Lol. As if that's what wins elections

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

^Their logic: Polls were wrong in 2016 (even though national polls were actually fairly accurate) -> Polls are always wrong (even though they weren’t in 2018)

Well.

By the way polls in many swing states in 2018 were wrong.