538 Democratic primary model is up

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Given where Bloomberg is in the polls this model should really include him if they are going to include Buttigieg.

He is included. The model just thinks he has no path.



All others
<1 in 100
(0.5%)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

A model is though the opposite to guess machine and/or cherry-picking.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The most irritating thing about them having this primary model is that now their articles and tweets all filter other results through it. They're like, "Sanders had a good poll in Iowa, and you know it's good because his probability of receiving a majority of pledged delegates in our model ticked up by 2%." It's like saying, "You know this is a good result because I fed it into my guess machine, and my guess machine gave me a thumbs up."

This has always been Silver's trick. There's a limit to how much someone can say about it, but it is helpful to keep commentary based in reality. Unfortunately the writers employed by 538 lack the insight to add much value.

This "trick" was how 538 was the only forecast that gave reasonable chance to Trump in 2016.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So I know the 538 model include a probability that each candidate will drop out after each set of contests, presumably based mostly on how well they performed. 

I wonder how they are modeling Bloomberg’s probability of dropping out prior to Super Tuesday.  Presumably he will perform so poorly in the first four contest that any model based on past candidate behavior would predict he is almost certain to drop out before Super Tuesday. 

But we all know he doesn’t care about these contests and is virtually certain to stay in through Super Tuesday.  How does the model incorporate this?  Is there just some ad hoc fix?

I'm sure the model doesn't do anything to account for that.  Just like I'm sure it wouldn't have accounted for the fact that, for example, McCain skipped Iowa in 2008, and wasn't going to drop out of the race after Iowa no matter how badly he did there.  But yes, that's a good argument for why it's presumably underestimating Bloomberg at least somewhat.  If you removed contingencies for candidates dropping out, then I'm sure Bloomberg wouldn't be as far behind Buttigieg in the model as he is now.

Does it look so strange though? Pete's ONLY chance is to "win" IA and/or NH and surge. Otherwise his chance would be near 0 as well.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I have to imagine the model expected a stronger result for Sanders in NH.

This.

Sanders' vs field performance in NH and national polls was ~good to get plurality, but not so for majority. So Bernie is a front-runner, but not the one who easily wins against the field. Not for now that is. Virtually no polls from NV/SC and few national.

And the model shows that.


Majority:
Sanders 37% (-9 since yesterday I believe?)
No one 36% (+6 I believe?)

Plurality:
Sanders 51% (-3 I believe?).


It sounds ~reasonable IMO. Besides, the model is nog a GOD LMAO, but a tool to simplify a comprehension of where the race is at.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So the candidate named "No one" is leading. How can I donate this wonderful candidate?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Majority:
Sanders 37% (-9 since yesterday I believe?)
No one 36% (+6 I believe?)

Plurality:
Sanders 51% (-3 I believe?).

Majority:
No one 38% (+2 since 12th Feb)
Sanders 35% (-2)
Biden 13%
Bloomberg 8%
Buttigieg 4%
Warren  2%


Plurality:
Sanders 51% (-/-)
Biden 21%
Bloomberg 16%
Buttigieg 8%
Warren 4%

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Majority:
No one 38% (+2 since 12th Feb)
Sanders 35% (-2)
Biden 13%
Bloomberg 8%
Buttigieg 4%
Warren  2%


Plurality:
Sanders 51% (-/-)
Biden 21%
Bloomberg 16%
Buttigieg 8%
Warren 4%

After we've got a LOT of high-quality polls>>>

Plurality:
Sanders 59% (+8)
Biden 19% (-2)
Bloomberg 15% (-1)
Buttigieg 4% (-4)
Warren 3% (-1)

Majority:
Sanders 42% (+7 since Feb 14)
No one 37% (-1)
Biden 11% (-1)
Bloomberg 7% (-1)
Buttigieg 2% (-2)
Warren  1% (-1)


Interestingly "No one" has lost just 1%. Instead, Bernie have been gaining ~equally from everyone. Makes sense if your look carefully at national polls.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1230186803027697664

OMG...

538 weakened since Harry Enten left.


Majority:
No one 41%
Sanders 36%
Biden 12%
Bloomberg 9%
Buttigieg 1%
Warren 1%

Plurality:
Sanders 54%
Biden 22%
Bloomberg 18%
Buttigieg 3%
Warren 3%

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Majority:
No one 41%
Sanders 36%
Biden 12%
Bloomberg 9%
Buttigieg 1%
Warren 1%

Plurality:
Sanders 54%
Biden 22%
Bloomberg 18%
Buttigieg 3%
Warren 3%

Majority:
Sanders 46% (+10 since FEB 19)
No one 40% (-1)
Biden 9% (-3)
Bloomberg 4% (-5)
Warren 0.7% (-0.3)
Buttigieg 0.3% (-0.7)

Plurality:
Sanders 69% (+15)
Biden 17% (-5)
Bloomberg 11% (-7)
Warren 2% (-1)
Buttigieg 1% (-2)


Obviously NV (and polls from SC?) was a really good for Bernie, 538 model thinks.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Sanders dropped back to 46% chance of a majority after the SC poll that was very good for Biden.

Yeah, I was about to post that.  I guess it's fair that Sanders not running away with this is dependent on *something* happening before Super Tuesday to cause his national #s to take a hit, and a Biden win in SC would be likeliest culprit.  So yeah, SC polling would have a pretty strong impact on the model at this point.

Is sounds reasonable, but IMHO they gave too much weight to a single B-rated robo-poll because it's only one conducted after NV. We'll see.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Majority:
No one 41%
Sanders 36%
Biden 12%
Bloomberg 9%
Buttigieg 1%
Warren 1%

Plurality:
Sanders 54%
Biden 22%
Bloomberg 18%
Buttigieg 3%
Warren 3%

Majority:
Sanders 46% (+10 since FEB 19)
No one 40% (-1)
Biden 9% (-3)
Bloomberg 4% (-5)
Warren 0.7% (-0.3)
Buttigieg 0.3% (-0.7)

Plurality:
Sanders 69% (+15)
Biden 17% (-5)
Bloomberg 11% (-7)
Warren 2% (-1)
Buttigieg 1% (-2)


Obviously NV (and polls from SC?) was a really good for Bernie, 538 model thinks.

Majority:
No one 44% (+4 since FEB 23)
Sanders 43% (-3)
Biden 11% (+2)
Bloomberg 2% (-2)
Warren 0.3% (-0.4)
Buttigieg 0.1% (-0.2)

Plurality:
Sanders 69% (-)
Biden 23% (+5)
Bloomberg 7% (-4)
Warren 1% (-1)
Buttigieg 0.3% (-0.7)



So it is basically 70% Bernie vs Biden 30% rn according to the model.

Funny enough, the 538's final probabilities in 2016 were https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/


Hillary Clinton 71.4%
Donald Trump 28.6%

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Majority:
No one 41%
Sanders 36%
Biden 12%
Bloomberg 9%
Buttigieg 1%
Warren 1%

Plurality:
Sanders 54%
Biden 22%
Bloomberg 18%
Buttigieg 3%
Warren 3%

Majority:
Sanders 46% (+10 since FEB 19)
No one 40% (-1)
Biden 9% (-3)
Bloomberg 4% (-5)
Warren 0.7% (-0.3)
Buttigieg 0.3% (-0.7)

Plurality:
Sanders 69% (+15)
Biden 17% (-5)
Bloomberg 11% (-7)
Warren 2% (-1)
Buttigieg 1% (-2)


Obviously NV (and polls from SC?) was a really good for Bernie, 538 model thinks.

Majority:
No one 44% (+4 since FEB 23)
Sanders 43% (-3)
Biden 11% (+2)
Bloomberg 2% (-2)
Warren 0.3% (-0.4)
Buttigieg 0.1% (-0.2)

Plurality:
Sanders 69% (-)
Biden 23% (+5)
Bloomberg 7% (-4)
Warren 1% (-1)
Buttigieg 0.3% (-0.7)


So it is basically 70% Bernie vs Biden 30% rn according to the model.

Majority:
No one 60% (+14 since FEB 27)
Sanders 28% (-15)
Biden 11% (-)
Bloomberg 0.6% (-1.4)
Buttigieg 0.1% (-)
Warren 0% (-0.3)

Plurality:
Sanders 64% (-5)
Biden 32% (+9)
Bloomberg 4% (-3)
Warren 0.1% (-0.9)
Buttigieg 0.1% (-0.2)


Majority - "No One" is up taking 99% from Bernie's chances, while Biden is stable.
Plurality - Biden up, taking 50/50% from Bernie and the field.


If not Bloomberg drops out now or/and Biden gets a huuge bump, "No one" likely becomes unstoppable.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Majority:
No one 66% (+14 since FEB 27)
Sanders 28% (-15)
Biden 11% (-)
Bloomberg 0.6% (-1.4)
Buttigieg 0.1% (-)
Warren 0% (-0.3)

Plurality:
Sanders 64% (-5)
Biden 32% (+9)
Bloomberg 4% (-3)
Warren 0.1% (-0.9)
Buttigieg 0.1% (-0.2)

Majority:
No one 60% (+14 since Pete dropped out March 1)
Sanders 22% (-6)
Biden 112% (+1)
Bloomberg 0.2% (-0.4)
Warren 0% (-)
Buttigieg 0.1% (-)

Plurality:
Sanders 60% (-4)
Biden 37% (+5)
Bloomberg 3% (-1)
Warren 0.1% (-)
Buttigieg 0.1% (-0.2)


Delegates:
Sanders 1626
Biden 1400
Bloomberg 624
Warren 236
Klobuchar 66


We'll likely get a much clearer picture of the race after ST...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Majority:
No one 60% (+14 since Pete dropped out March 1)
Sanders 22% (-6)
Biden 12% (+1)
Bloomberg 0.2% (-0.4)
Warren 0% (-)
Buttigieg 0.1% (-)

Plurality:
Sanders 60% (-4)
Biden 37% (+5)
Bloomberg 3% (-1)
Warren 0.1% (-)
Buttigieg 0.1% (-0.2)


Delegates:
Sanders 1626
Biden 1400
Bloomberg 624
Warren 236
Klobuchar 66

Last before ST was:

Majority:
No one 61% (+1 March 2)
Biden 31% (+19)
Sanders 8% (-14)
Bloomberg 0.1% (-0.1)
Warren 0% (-)

Plurality:
Biden 65% (+28)
Sanders 34% (-26)
Bloomberg 0.9% (-2.1)
Warren 0.1% (-)


Delegates:
Biden 1738 (+338)
Sanders 1363 (-263)
Bloomberg 555 (-69)
Warren 283 (+47)