🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Yeah, it was kind of unusual for Germany, eh?

She was interviewed by Das Erste where she harshly criticized the states, and when asked if Lanschet was circumventing the [lock-down] deal, she answered that he was, though not the only one. After the interview there were [on Tagesthemen] among other... Söder aligning himself with Merkel, calling for more and stricter restriction, and more management on national level.

In my opinion, the main f**k-up of Germany/EU is vaccines, but Merkel put the main blame on the states, and indirectly on Laschet. Well...  go, Söder!

https://www.ft.com/content/6c81cea8-cd5e-4324-9903-67cd7d45ba41
Merkel rails at German states for taking foot off ‘emergency brake’
Chancellor attacks reopening of regional economies and raises prospect of nationwide curfew

Angela Merkel has attacked the leaders of Germany’s regions, saying they should not be moving to reopen their economies and raising the prospect of nationwide curfews to slow the spread of coronavirus.

In a wide-ranging interview on the German television channel ARD, Merkel faulted some of the 16 states for failing to implement an “emergency brake” agreed on March 3. This would halt all moves to relax lockdowns as soon as the number of infections rose above 100 per 100,000 people over seven days.

“Unfortunately, it is not being adhered to everywhere,” she said. “There are several states that are interpreting it very broadly, and that doesn’t fill me with joy.”

“What depresses and vexes me is that the good parts of a resolution are implemented, . . . but the difficult part isn’t, as I would wish it to be,” she told the interviewer, Anne Will.

[...]

Merkel was highly critical of states that were moving ahead with lifting the curbs on economic activity that have been in force since November. “Where the impression is being made that we can open things up — that is not the order of the day,” she said.

[...]

She also criticised the actions of Armin Laschet, prime minister of the populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia, who was elected leader of her CDU party in January. He has said the emergency brake will be applied only in certain districts, not the whole state.

When asked by Will if Laschet was violating the principle of the emergency brake with such a selective approach, she said: “Yes, but he’s not the only one.”

Tagesthemen with Söder:
https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/video/video-842637.html

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The other scenario, with Söder as Chancellor candidate, CDU/CSU crushes it with 38%, 19 points ahead of SPD:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1383105688717639680
 

The Union and FDP would have 46% in this scenario, would that be enough for a majority?

Oh, boy, I love it!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1431710501348814857

It's happening. Though, can the debate tomorrow change it?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

CDU unleashes Merkel.

https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik/merkel-ein-gewaltiger-unterschied-zwischen-mir-und-scholz-77542726.bild.html

Merkel Richtung Scholz: „Wenn man sozusagen sich auf mich beruft, (gibt) es einen Unterschied: Mit mir als Bundeskanzlerin würde es nie eine Koalition geben, in der die Linke beteiligt ist. Und ob dies von Olaf Scholz so geteilt wird oder nicht, das bleibt offen. Und in dem Zusammenhang ist es einfach so, dass da ein gewaltiger Unterschied für die Zukunft Deutschlands zwischen mir und Olaf Scholz besteht.“

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1432698869054414857


https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1432700607505305602

Is there any significant (>5%) chance that Laschet somehow resigns leaving it to Söder?

Söder seems mostly taking votes from "none of these" 20%, but even 7% from Scholz.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Who would Russia prefer to see win the election between the CDU, the SPD and the Greens?

The Greens are the most hawkish on Russia, being strongly against Nord Stream 2 and for closer ties with the United States; while the CDU/CSU is the most dovish, supporting Merkel’s foreign policy of putting German commercial and economic interests above ideology. The SPD is somewhere in between.

What is really the difference between SPD and CDU on Russia in terms of actual policies, though? IMO, the difference is non-significant, if any. I wouldn't call it as "SPD is somewhere in between". And it wasn't only Schröder, Sigmar Gabriel is a kind of Russophile/Russlandversteher, too, isn't he?

Also, imo single out Schröder, but leaving out Merkal is kinda unfair. Her role in enabling NS2 (and partly NS1) is at least as big as Schröder's for NS1. Even at the very end after at she's stepped down (when she knew Greens are fairly likely to enter new government), she ensured NS2 completion (even though, it, perhaps, won't be allowed to use up to 100% of its capacity). Not only that, her decision to hurry up the closure of nuclear plants has all but ensured the flow of Russian gas to Germany in years to come.

Baerbock is probably out in the race for the chancellorship, but can be sure to end up as foreign minister and vice chancellor in any government with Green participation (minus vice chancellorship if they somehow end up behind the FDP).

How much say/independence will Baerbock as Foreign Minister have in foreign policies vs SPD/FDP? Really intriguing, given her for Germany relatively un-ortodox views.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

All these tools from cap and trade, carbons tax or "proactive state action in building up renewables; subsidizing green technologies and green infrastructure" are essentially the same, but has [slightly?] different trade-offs. I don't believe there is a consensus which tool is better. Governments/entities use all of these tools adapting them for their countries situation/needs/political will.

One can argue, that FDP doesn't go far enough fast enough, but calling cap and trade + market a magical thinking, ahm what?

Wouldn't FDP's economic views be a problem with a Traffic Light Coalition?  I believe SPD and Greens both want higher taxes on wealthy while FDP wants to cut them for all including wealthy so would that be a stumbling block or would they proceed with tax cuts for middle and lower income while leave top rates alone?  I would think on economic policy, CDU/CSU would be easier to work with than FDP as CDU/CSU seems more socially conservative than FDP, but more economically centrist.  Also how about minimum wage?  Does FDP support that or do they take the pro free market approach like Larry Elder of California did that there should be no minimum wage which until about a decade ago Germany didn't have?

https://www.ft.com/content/556549ff-ca65-44f4-822c-1980d2e87fec
German liberal leader signals bumps on road to ‘traffic-light’ coalition
Conditions set by FDP’s Christian Lindner likely to be hard for SPD and Greens to accept

The leader of Germany’s liberal Free Democrats has set strict conditions for joining a possible coalition with the Social Democrats and Greens after next week’s national election, demanding tax cuts, curbs on new borrowing and a return to pre-pandemic spending rules.

“The prerequisite for us joining any coalition is that we can’t have tax increases and we respect the constitutional debt brake,” Christian Lindner, leader of the FDP, told the Financial Times. “Whoever wants to do something else will have to look for another partner.”

In the event of this so-called “traffic-light” tie-up — named for the parties’ respective colours of red, green and yellow — Lindner, a 42-year-old MP who has led the FDP since 2013, would be a leading contender to become Germany’s next finance minister and therefore one of Europe’s most powerful politicians.

But differences between the three parties will be hard to bridge. The SPD and Greens favour higher taxes, greater public investment and a redistribution of wealth to the poorest — demands that may prove difficult for the fiscally conservative, pro-business FDP to swallow.

Still, the ideological gulf between the FDP and the left-leaning SPD and Greens — particularly on European policy — will be hard to overcome. Speaking at his office in the Bundestag, Lindner insisted that Germany and other European countries should curb their spending after the big splurges seen during the Covid-19 pandemic. “Pressing on with an ultra-expansionary fiscal policy for Europe would be a big danger,” he said.

That stance puts him at odds with the Greens, who want to reform Germany’s debt brake — its constitutional curb on new borrowing — unleash a €500bn, 10-year investment drive and loosen the EU’s fiscal rules, which limit state debt to 60 per cent of GDP and budget deficits to 3 per cent. The EU is examining whether these rules, which were suspended when coronavirus hit, should be overhauled given the surge in public debt during the pandemic.