Obama. It feels like 2006, where you could discuss all the strategic advantages Republicans had, the gerrymandering, the money, and the fact that people "just wouldn't vote for Democrats," and weighed it against the heavy anger with Republicans and the status quo. It was unthinkable that the Democrats would do so well until a month or two before Election Day. Then it happened.
My gut tells me that Obama will win this by a nice margin, not huge, and that the idea that this race must be close, he has a natural ceiling of 278 EVs, or that the country will choose McCain as the safe choice is as salient as the idea that Democrats had no hope of recapturing the House before 2012 at the earliest because of the way people voted in the past. (Yes, that's a jab at agcatter. Sorry, couldn't resist.)
Better than I could have said it.
