What types of voters flip in a Trump v Biden rematch? (user search)
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  What types of voters flip in a Trump v Biden rematch? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What types of voters flip in a Trump v Biden rematch?  (Read 1223 times)
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« on: April 15, 2023, 05:10:25 PM »
« edited: April 15, 2023, 06:45:01 PM by Хahar 🤔 »

Please stop talking about "places like New York and California". There is no such thing as "New York and California"; the two states are not similar and do not have similar voting patterns. I know it's hard to believe that there are places other than New York, but actually you cannot use election results in Chinese areas of New York City to determine how suburban Asians in California vote and it's both stupid and insulting to try.

Instead of just airily gesturing at "traditional values" of Asian voters, let's look at hard data about Asian voters in California. I've presented here in a convenient table the results of the 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial elections in every majority-Asian municipality in California. They're even helpfully arranged by Asian percentage for you to see. There's also a trend column which shows the swing between 2018 and 2022 compared to the statewide swing between 2018 and 2022.

CityPct Asian20182022SwingTrend
BAY AREA
Milpitas73.4%D+38.9D+33.9R+5D+0.5
Cupertino69.9%D+43.4D+41.2R+2.2D+3.4
Fremont64.7%D+42.3D+39.5R+2.8D+2.8
Union City61.9%D+54.8D+47.6R+7.3R+1.7
Daly City61.0%D+56.9D+53.1R+3.8D+1.7
Foster City54.7%D+43.5D+45.6D+2.2D+7.7
Saratoga54.4%D+30.2D+30.3D+0.2D+5.7
Millbrae53.9%D+33.2D+33.3D+0.1D+5.6
Dublin53.7%D+37.9D+38.6D+0.7D+6.2
Sunnyvale52.4%D+49.5D+50D+0.5D+6
San Ramon51.2%D+29.9D+32.2D+2.3D+7.8
Hercules50.6%D+56.3D+55.4R+0.9D+4.6
LOS ANGELES
Monterey Park69.6%D+36.1D+33.1R+3D+2.6
Walnut69.2%D+13.6D+11R+2.6D+2.9
Rosemead67.0%D+44.4D+32.7R+11.6R+6.1
San Gabriel66.4%D+32.1D+24R+8.1R+2.5
Arcadia65.9%D+6.6D+4R+2.6D+3
Cerritos65.2%D+19D+16.4R+2.6D+3
Temple City65.1%D+11.8D+7.9R+4D+1.6
San Marino62.9%R+3.3D+1.4D+4.8D+10.3
Diamond Bar60.8%D+9.4D+4.9R+4.5D+1.1
Alhambra54.9%D+43.8D+38R+5.8R+0.3
Westminster54.4%R+2.2R+7.5R+5.3D+0.3
La Palma53.4%D+1D+3.3D+2.3D+7.8

As you can see, even though Newsom's performance was meaningfully worse in 2022 than in 2018, many majority-Asian municipalities actually swung toward him, and the ones that did not showed a smaller swing than the state as a whole. Based on these findings, if you must say something about trends among Asians in California, it would be much more honest and accurate to conclude that Asians are a Democratic-trending demographic. I know it's frustrating for people who think that non-white voters are boring and really want to be ahead of the curve in predicting that they'll become interesting, but that's the way it is! Sorry!

New York City is not representative of anything, and that includes Asians.
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