Peruvian elections 2011

[Хahar 🤔]

A runoff between Humala and Fujimori would certainly be deliciously interesting.

[Хahar 🤔]

Now, I'm no expert in Peru, but I just found a survey that shows that half of low-income Peruvians have no access to a telephone. Do opinion polls weigh for that sort of thing?

If not, I'd assume Kuczynski and maybe Castaneda are overpolling a fair bit while Humala and possibly Fujimori are underpolling. Don't know enough about Toledo's appeal to say for him.   

Wikipedia has a list of polls in 2006, and they were pretty accurate, so I would suppose so.

[Хahar 🤔]

Who would Humala have the best chance of beating in a run-off and who would be toughest for him to beat?

Fujimori and Castañeda, respectively, but given that Castañeda's dead in the water Kuczynski would come next. Castañeda and Kuczynski are relatively inoffensive standard-issue right-wing Latin American politicians. Toledo was as popular as Chile when he finished his term in office, and the same people who hate Humala might be expected to despise Fujimori.

[Хahar 🤔]

Well, that's an amusing result. Humala is no Evo, but he'll have to do.

[Хahar 🤔]

Will he be clever enough to consider that such a margin implies moderation ?

he cannot be a radical with that Congress. It's impossible. Gana Perú hasn't got a majority of seats.

But he might attempt an autogolpe!

Oh, wait, never mind, that was Fujimori.