Biden aides say he may run for prez in 2016

[Ogre Mage]

It's almost impossible to get the Presidential bug out of your system when you are as close to the top spot as Biden is.  It is probably wise for him to leave the door open, just in case.  However, his candidacy is unlikely.  If he runs in 2016, age will be a major issue, as it was for McCain.  And he would need to work on his job approval ratings.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/121850/Biden-Favorability-Trails-Obama-Recent-VPs.aspx

Gallup notes:

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[Ogre Mage]

Yes, perhaps the biggest blockade against a Biden candidacy in 2016 is Hillary Clinton.  Clinton won 20 states in the Democratic Primary and built an impressive national constituency.  Her political machine is now dormant, but not dismantled.  It could be reactivated someday.  And among some feminist Democrats there is a feeling of unfinished business.

Biden does have some advantages.  As VP, he can raise money, campaign for other Democrats and collect political chits.  Hillary cannot due to her position as Secretary of State.  But Bill can fill in for Hillary on the political circuit as she attends to the business of governance, which undercuts that advantage.  Biden also has closer proximity to President Obama, which is an advantage Hillary cannot replicate. 

Still, one cannot overlook the fact that Hillary has proven herself as a vote getter (18 million in the Democratic Primary).  Does anyone remember how many votes Biden got in the 2008 Primary?

[Ogre Mage]

You're right about her large base but Biden's low vote total from 2008 isn't a good guide since he has a much higher profile as Vice President.  For instance, it's possible black voters would be behind Biden in 2016 as Obama's closest ally.

Biden's current job approvals and profile as Vice President suggest that a national base for him has not (yet) materialized.  No base materialized in 2008 either.  Perhaps he can find a way to address this, but frankly I am skeptical.  Clinton has a large national constituency which is semi-independent from President Obama's.  That's a big advantage that Biden lacks.

It IS an interesting question, what would Obama do if both Biden and Clinton jumped into the 2016 Dem primary?  Probably stay neutral is my guess, although one never knows what is going on behind the scenes.