Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[danny]

The election site is bugging out and showing nonsensical results right now, hope it gets sorted soon.

[danny]

Huh I feel like an idiot now, I did not know there was a substantiall size muslim population in Israel proper until today lol.

If you count occupied territories, there are more Muslims than Jews.

That's why it would be insanely stupid to actually annex these areas.

I meant in the formal area of Israel, not even including Gaza and West Bank, I had no idea that it was nearly 20% muslim. I thought it was like 95% Jewish 5% Armenian and Greek Christians.

Where did you think the Joint List got its votes from?

[danny]

Votes Counted: 228K
Likud:                29.44%
blue and white:  24.78%
Shas:                 6.3%
Beitenu:             5.54%
Labor:                4.9%
UTJ:                   4.77%
United Right:      3.86%
Kulanu:              3.69%
            Threshold
Meretz:              3.21%
New Right:         3.13%
Zehut:               2.83%
RAAM BALAD:    2.65%
Hadash:             2.21%
Gesher:             1.89%

[danny]

There is an election map here which is filling in in real time.

[danny]

For posters familiar with Isreali political geography, what can we infer from the areas that have already reported? What do the swings from 2016 look like?

It's clear that Labour is getting destroyed in its rural base by BW. Gilad went from 68% Labour in 2015 to 19% now.

[danny]

Votes Counted: 828K
Likud:                29.15%
blue and white:  25.27%
Shas:                 6.08%
Beitenu:             5.29%
UTJ:                   5.01%
Labor:                4.55%
Kulanu:              3.75%
United Right:      3.5%
            Threshold
Meretz:              3.19%
New Right:         3.08%
Hadash:             2.21%
RAAM BALAD:    2.8%
Zehut:               2.71%
Gesher:             1.8%

[danny]

Haredi aren't that over represented, under the current results they would get 8 and 7 seats, which is pretty reasonable. They might lose a seat or two from this, but that should be it.

[danny]

1.62M votes counted:
Likud:                28.32%
blue and white:  25.34%
Shas:                 6.15%
UTJ:                   5.4%
Beitenu:             4.97%
Labor:                4.42%
Kulanu:              3.68%
Hadash:             3.51%
United Right:      3.36%
Meretz:              3.36%
            Threshold
RAAM BALAD:     3.19%
New Right:         3.03%
Zehut:               2.63%
Gesher:             1.75%

[danny]

2.73M votes counted:
Likud:                27.59%
blue and white:  26.04%
Shas:                 6.06%
UTJ:                   5.23%
Beitenu:             4.63%
Labor:                4.49%
Hadash:             3.91%
Kulanu:              3.68%
United Right:      3.55%
Meretz:              3.54%
            Threshold
New Right:         3.09%
RAAM BALAD:     3.00%
Zehut:               2.58%
Gesher:             1.76%

[danny]

Wow

Big vote dump from Tel Aviv I’m guessing

I think you are looking at this from an American point of view. Tel Aviv doesn't make up that much of the population of the country, and while it's definitely to the left of the country as a whole, there are plenty of places to its left.

[danny]

3.44M votes counted:
Likud:                27.07%
blue and white:  25.96%
Shas:                 6.05%
UTJ:                   5.44%
Labor:                4.45%
Beitenu:             4.35%
Hadash:             4.27%
United Right:      3.66%
Kulanu:              3.64%
Meretz:              3.61%
            Threshold
RAAM BALAD:     3.22%
New Right:         3.14%
Zehut:               2.55%
Gesher:             1.75%

[danny]

So I just woke up, and not much has changed. Are we still waiting on military/prison/some outstanding stuff, or is the 65-55 distribution on Google final?

Those votes will be counted tomorrow, then it will be final.

[danny]

Is the best case 60-60 by any chance, or still about 65-55?

There isn't much room for improvement for the Centre-Left, and on past elections this wouldn't happen anyway. The main possible change is the New Right getting in and Balad-Raam not getting in, either of these events changing some seats towards the right.

[danny]

Votes are still being counted but New Right is now above the threshold.