Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[danny]

Since when is it such a sure thing that Kulanu would back Bibi ober Gantz?

That's what they publicly stated, although I suppose that still doesn't make it a sure thing.

[danny]

By the way, AJC and AIPAC denounced Bibi earlier this week over his moves to get Otzma in government. Probably has no impact, but its important to note.

Did they? All I saw was a condemnation of Otzma without mentioning Bibi.

[danny]

Wasn't the National Union in government when Ben-Ari was an MK before?

no, they were in the opposition during that time.

[danny]

Hi, simple and armature question from me:   My understanding is that Arabs make up 20% of the Israel population.  If so then why are Arab parties only winning around 9%-11% of the vote?  Is it because not all Arabs are citizens (my understanding is that people in East Jerusalem can vote which I assume have to include that Arabs that live there)? Is it because Arab turn out a lower rates?  Perhaps Christian and Druze Arabs do not vote for the Arab parties?  If so why do they vote for?

I am asking because it seems to me if the Arab parties can get to around 20% of the seats they can pretty much cause political chaos by forcing constant grand coalitions since in such a situation I cannot see how Right-Religious or the Left-secular bloc every getting a majority without bringing in Arab parties into the government or buy them off.

It's a combination of the reasons you listed causing the disparity. Most Arabs in Jerusalem are not citizens and can't vote, turnout is lower amongst Arabs, most Druze vote for various Zionist parties. Also while the vast majority of (non-Druze) Arabs voted for the Joint List last elections, more of them voted for Zionist parties than Jews voting for the Joint List.

[danny]

Who is the highest non-Jew on the Blue and White list?

Who is the highest non-Jew on the Labor list?

Druze news anchorwoman Gadeer Mreeh at #25 for Blue and White; Gavri Barjil (judging by the name...) at #14 for Labour.

Gavri Bargil is very much a Jewish name. The first Arab on the Labour list is Saed Salah at 16 (also Druze).

[danny]

From a theoretical point of view, it is ridiculous that candidates can be barred from taking part in an election without a judge ruling on it, and it's even more ridiculous that it is party representatives making the ultimate decision.

In theory, yes, I agree. In practice the party voting is just for show and judges will make the decision.

[danny]

From a theoretical point of view, it is ridiculous that candidates can be barred from taking part in an election without a judge ruling on it, and it's even more ridiculous that it is party representatives making the ultimate decision.

In theory, yes, I agree. In practice the party voting is just for show and judges will make the decision.

So if, hypothetically, parties vote to bar Ben-Ari from running, judges would still have to rule on it?

Yes, Balad has been "banned" many times, but it always gets reversed.

[danny]

The Central Election Commission voted 16-15 to approve Ben-Ari's candidacy.

And it's already being petitioned to the Supreme Court.

Naturally, it's all part of the same kabuki dance we get every election.

[danny]

Regarding Shas, and this is probably a dumb and slightly roundabout question - they always get described as a Haredi party. But to what extent is that actually the case? I mean, I was under the impression that their electorate was as much traditionalist and based around Mizrahi identity as much as anything else? And aren't the Haredi movements something that is much more Ashkenazi?

The actual leadership has always been exclusively haredi. However, back when Shas were getting 17 seats, most of their electorate was non haredi. These days though with their 5-6 seats they have lost most their non haredi voters so now most of their voters are haredi. The Ashkenazi haredi have their own party (UTJ), with has being the party of Mizrahi Haredi.

[danny]

I see number 2 on the Zehut list is Haim Amsalem. I remember he was an MK for Shas who broke away and formed a punnily named party called Whole Nation that sometimes polled like it might win Knesset seats. I don't remember what the ideology of the party was though. What's his deal again?

Amsalem was renegade in Shas who clearly had far more moderate positions on religious matters than his party, which eventually led to his departure. his main diversion was when he said that Haredi youth should join the army and opposed the idea of everyone studying the Torah in the modern haredi fashion, he also accused Shas of representing Ashkenazi philosophy. since then he has called for civil marriage.

[danny]

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1107747463631388673

What a ridiculous tweet by Barak Ravid, he writes in English about an ad in Hebrew but only gives part of the information and leaves out the meaning. The point of the ad is to mock the people that call her fascist by going through the things that she's really trying to promote and claiming that they are really democratic.

[danny]

So last night Bibi surprised everyone and did something he almost never does, and went on Channel 12, which is the Israeli version of CNN, for a personal interview. He imploded. He refused to rule out support for a French style immunity law that would basically shield him from prosecution in the indictments that have been leveled against him. He looked absolutely lost in front 9f the camera.

The rumor is that the private polling is actually really bad for the Likud right now and that he is doing what he usually does when he's in trouble, which is panic. Obviously there's no way of knowing if that rumor is true.

Bibi doesn't do interviews in normal times, but he does do them before elections, so this isn't really unusual. As for "implosion", that's not what I thought. He seemed too whiny, but his actual answers seemed reasonable.

 I didn't like the interview, but that was because of the interviewers rather than Bibi. All the questions were about Submarines, Gantz's phone and why wasn't Miri Regev in a campaign photo, but nothing about actual policy. no questions about Gaza, nothing about the deficit, nothing about the situation in the hospitals or surrogacy pregnancy for gay people etc.

Bibi is a the prime minister but they interviewed him as if he's some contestant on reality show rather than someone who can affect how the country is run.

[danny]

I think it is logical that he would get those questions, given what he has hanging over his head. Truth be told, he shouldn't even be in the running. He should be taking a timeout, preparing for his court cases.

I don't mind that he had some questions about corruption, but I still think that he should also get questions about policy. Also, not all questions were about corruption but other things about Gantz and some who was in some campaign picture (this one seemed the least important to me).

As for not running, We have had in the past cases of politicians being under investigation for years without it ever leading to anything, or even leading to an exoneration in trial. Turning any investigation into something that would force a politician to leave would make it far too easy to dispose of political opponents by using the justice system.

[danny]

I listened to an NPR interview about Arab votes in the election and I heard that like 50% of the Arab/Druze population is boycotting the election due to being unsatisfied with Gantz.

This is completely false. The Large majority of Arabs will vote for the Arab parties, So whatever Gantz does is irrelevant, and satisfaction with the Hadash-TAAL and RAAM-BALAD is far more important.

Even if turnout amongst Arabs is indeed 50%, that wouldn't mean that 50% are actively boycotting the election, just like the 50% or so of Americans who don't vote aren't boycotting the election.

[danny]

If you thought you have seen some crazy things so far, Feiglin takes it to another level with this Gay foot fetish video.

[danny]

So Ra'am-Balad was in the end able to participate in the elections?

Yes, the courts overturned that decision and banned one of the Kahanists instead.

[danny]

What kind of justification did the courts use to justify that decision? Banning the Kahanists and not Raam-Balad?

The courts didn't publish their reasoning, but in general their isn't really any connection between the two, and the reason for (attempted) banning was different (incitement to racism for the Kahanist versus opposing a Jewish state for RAAM-BALAD).

[danny]

Don't Raam-Balad pretty clearly oppose a Jewish state? I'd have thought the reason for a ban was crystal clear.

Yes, but I don't think the supreme court is terribly concerned about the law in such matters.

[danny]

Final turnout percentage up or down from 2015? Down
Biggest party across the country? B&W
Biggest party in Jerusalem? Likud
Biggest party in Rishon LeTziyon? B&W
Blue and White under or over 34% in Tel Aviv? Over
Top-3 in Itamar? (bonus point for correct order) URWP, New Right, Likud
New Right under or over 10% in Ma'ale Adumim? Over
Likud under or over 25% in Jerusalem? Over
Biggest party in Daliyat-al-Karmel? Kulanu
Better Zehut score in Jerusalem or in Tel Aviv? Jerusalem
Gap between Likud and B&W under or over 25 points in Beersheva? Under
URWP under or over 50% in Kiryat Arba? Under
Zehut under or over 15% in the stoner settlement of Tekoa? Under
First four parties in Haifa? (bonus point for correct order) Blue and White, Likud, Labour, Hadash-TAAL
Likud under or over 50% in Beit She'an? Over
YB under or over 15% in Ma'alot Tarsicha? Under
Labour under or over 14% in Herzliya? Over
Better Zehut score in Sderot or Ra'anana? Ra'anana
Shas under or over 8% in Kiryat Gat? Over
B&W under or over 35% in Modi'in-Maccabim-Reut? Over

[danny]

Is election day still a holiday in Israel ?  When does poll close Tel Aviv time ?  I assume exit polls come out at the same time ?

It's a holiday for most people, yes. I have it off. My daughter goes to an Arab school, notably, which is not closed today. Polls close at 20:00 and exit pols are released immediately. Results start coming in strong by midnight.

22:00, not 20:00.

[danny]

Question for the more knowledge folks. Pretty certain my hometown, Afula, will vote Likud. Any chance of a KL upset?

In the last election Likud was 33% ahead of the second place, so definitely not.

[danny]

Link to the actual results once they start coming in:

https://votes21.bechirot.gov.il/nationalresults

[danny]

Votes Counted: 29K
blue and white:  30.34%
Likud:                24.38%
United Right:      8.8%
Labor:                8.14%
New Right:         5.96%
Meretz:              4.31%
Shas:                3.65%
Zehut:               3.61%
Kulanu:              3.44%

I expect Likud to go higher as this is mostly urban.

Also kahlon said he will recommend Netanyahu as PM.

This vote is all actually all rural from places where polling places closed at 8. However, Likud does better in urban areas than rural areas overall.

[danny]

Votes Counted: 29K
blue and white:  30.34%
Likud:                24.38%
United Right:      8.8%
Labor:                8.14%
New Right:         5.96%
Meretz:              4.31%
Shas:                3.65%
Zehut:               3.61%
Kulanu:              3.44%

I expect Likud to go higher as this is mostly urban.

Also kahlon said he will recommend Netanyahu as PM.

Where are the Arab parties?

Nothing significant yet. From past experiences, Arab places tend to finish counting later.

[danny]

Votes Counted: 29K
blue and white:  30.34%
Likud:                24.38%
United Right:      8.8%
Labor:                8.14%
New Right:         5.96%
Meretz:              4.31%
Shas:                3.65%
Zehut:               3.61%
Kulanu:              3.44%

I expect Likud to go higher as this is mostly urban.

Also kahlon said he will recommend Netanyahu as PM.

This vote is all actually all rural from places where polling places closed at 8. However, Likud does b5etter in urban areas than rural areas overall.

Which places close at 8 and why?

Some small rural places where there are less than a certain amount of voters per polling place.