2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

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F L   D E M S   S U C K

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Does Biden have a chance at winning Monongolia County? He leads by 4 pts. right now.

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Is there any information about Nebraska's 2nd District?

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Perdue lost re-election...

...in WV.



https://www.wvgazettemail.com/news/politics/moore-declares-victory-over-perdue-in-treasurers-race-gop-auditor-agriculture-incumbents-set-to-keep/article_bf0d8089-833a-5f9d-bfdf-53d37850a92d.html

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Nebraska's 1st congressional district had a crazy leftward swing so far.

Was Trump +18, now Trump +3.6.

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Btw, what is actually going on with Alaska?

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I just muted my laptop.

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https://twitter.com/JJansaSDS/status/1323913419200864256

Slovenian Prime Minister (very much a trumpist Ideologically) first World Leader to congratulate Trump. Not sure this will age well. Could have a real bad impact on relations if Biden wins.

Well he served a jail sentence already for being corrupt, so ofc he congratulates his brother in faith.

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Btw, the ballot measure in Alaska to install RCV seems to be failing, currently at 57 % "No" with 168k votes reported.

Didn't expect that.

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Do we know who is up in ME-02 for president? I want as much insurance as possible in case PA doesn't flip and in case Nebraska decides to change its EV split system after the fact.

According to DDHQ, Trump leads 51.8-45.2, with an estimated vote count of >95 %.

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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324004491612618752?s=19

Ok then give us Ohio, Iowa and North Carolina back

And Missouri, Kansas, Montana and Texas.

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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-rhode-island-question-1-change-the-state-name.html

Even more of a nailbiter than the presidential race: The tough question whether the state of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations will change its official name.

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What is up in the Senate race in MI?

Not worried about Peters.  Running somewhat behind Biden, but he will make it.

Regarding ME, major ticket splitting appears to be in play in favor of Collins.  But she is running below 50 right now.

What would the next step be if Collins ends up with say 49%?

Would go to ranked choice voting--and I assume she would prevail.  Gideon has a 6 point deficit to make up.  Hopefully, she can close it and win it in the RCV.

A margin of that size, and with the frontrunner at 49%, very rarely gets overturned.

Yup, Savage is at ~5 %, Linn at 1 %, hard to see Gideon winning.

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fink nooooo

Huh?

Finkenauer lost in IA-01.

The House was pretty bad for Dems all around. We lost a lot of good freshman from Cunningham in SC to Horn in OK to Quetzalcoatl Small in NM. RIP FFs

Cunningham lost? Damn

How many seats will we have at the end of this?

Currently, 191 seats have been called for Dems.

Seats that will likely go Democratic or where Democrats have the edge as of now:

- 3 seats in CT
- ME-02
- GA-07
- WI-03
- MN-02
- IA-03
- WA-08
- MI-08 and MI-05
- UT-04
- NV-04 and NV-03
- CA-49
- AZ-01
- VA-02

That would put Democrats at ... 207

Additionally...
- CA-29 and CA-34 (not sure whether they're counted as Democratic already?) with only Dems in the runoff

Other seem much closer (but not sure which votes are yet to be counted tho).

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Is Biden doomed in GA/PA/NC?

NC - pretty much.

PA - not yet.

GA - according to NYT, not really, could go either way.

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https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1324045286537273346?s=19

Not going to happen. Arizona & Nevada will go for Biden. Although it'll be close.

Why do votes keep spawning out of nowhere to make Biden's lead disappear? Suspicious! /s

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https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1324045286537273346?s=19

Not going to happen. Arizona & Nevada will go for Biden. Although it'll be close.

Why do votes keep spawning out of nowhere to make Biden's lead disappear? Suspicious! /s

Nah, just the process but I'm assuming you're being sarcastic.

Unlike the Commander-in-Chief.

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It might just be a rough calculation, but does anyone else think GA regular will go to runoff?

92 % of the votes are reported, the votes counted yet are 4'712'000, dividing this by 0,92 we'd have a vote total of 5'121'000.

50 % of that is 2'560'500. Perdue's current vote count is 2'387'800, so he would need 172'700 more votes. DeKalb reported 85 % so far and Perdue is at 57'000 votes (Ossoff: 278'000). Chatham reported 80 % with Perdue being at 45'000 (Ossoff: 58'000). Bibb County: 84 % reported, 27'000 for Perdue so far, 42'000 for Ossoff.

I just struggle to see where those 172'700 votes should come from?

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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324065378658639877?s=19

Bold guess, but could there be a significant amount of registered Old School Republicans (McCain Style) that didn't change party registration but voted for Biden?

Polling in AZ didn't seem as far off as in other states, does anyone know whether there is a significant amount of registered Republicans in AZ voting for Biden?

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Looks like McGrath won’t outperform Allison Grimes after all.

Even losing Elliott, what a shame.

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Does NC have any chance of going Democratic, even narrowly? 95 % of the votes reported, Trump is leading by 78k and it seems like the remaining votes come from areas favorable towards Biden (Mecklenburg, Cumberland, Orange, Forsyth)?

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I mean, Biden may very well win the Presidency, and I'm happy for that, but the down ballot losses are really irking me.

Gideon, J. Cunningham, Finkenauer, and DMP losing really stung.

Could've been a lot worse frankly. The results we're getting are in line with what people thought would happen like several months ago

Now imagine how much worse it would've gotten if the election for Angie Craig's seat was rescheduled as special election to February. Might have lost that one too.

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Theory, and maybe some consolation for (likely) losing the Senate:

Just like we saw in the 2010 and 2014 midterms, a lot of the “Obama coalition” did not bother to turn out to the polls to vote for anyone but Obama. Generic Democrat suffered as a result. I think Trump really drives up turnout among WWC rurals, and they’ll vote for downballot Rs while they’re at it, but many don’t bother to show up for JUST John James or whoever the f—k as we saw in 2018. So maybe this gives us a shot if the GA senate seats both go to a run-off, and MAYBE even in 2022. We shall see.

2022 will be favorable to Democrats. Two retiring Senators in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin is up for re-election, Rand Paul is up for re-election and I think with the right candidate is vulnerable and you have Marco Rubio (wish it was Rick Scott) up for re-election where you could run someone like Val Demings possibly or her husband against him.

But you have to defend Maggie Hassan whose opponent could be the Governor who just cruised to reelection by idk 30 points.

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Martha McSally has refused to concede to Mark Kelly, despite him being over 100,000 votes ahead.

Such a nasty woman.

Can someone encourage her to run again for that seat in 2022 "cuz this years' result was rigged"? Please!

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What is NC doing meanwhile? No change in 14 hours or so.

Not that I think Biden (and especially Cunningham) still have a good shot at winning, they're strong underdogs, but I don't want my hopes to remain kept up as long as it hasn't been called for Trump/Tillis.