Polish Politics and Elections

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Senate flipped from PiS control to opposition control:

PiS: 48 (-13)
KO: 43 (+9)
Independents: 4 (+/-0)
PSL: 3 (+2)
SLD: 2 (+2)

Of the four independents, three were supported by KO and one by PiS.

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https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/507211-rosnie-przewaga-andrzeja-dudy-nad-rafalem-trzaskowskim

Social Changes has it at Duda winning 53-47 with turnout at 64% in the second round.  Previous poll a week ago had it at Duda winning 51-49

Wpolityce is a very PiS leaning site.

Would be very cautious with pollsters CBOS and Social Changes, CBOS saw Duda at 52 % two days before the election. Social Changes is less biased, but should be taken with a grain of salt unless other polls see it the same way.

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Anyway, Holownia has announced that he's starting a 'movement' (lol) called 'Poland 2050'.

Why do failed Polish presidential candidates with decent performances tend to found their own parties?
Do you think Poland 2050 will make it into Parliament (it's still 3 years until the next election)? Kukiz'15 performed very well in polls, but the presidential election was in the same year and the 8 % performance was at least not overwhelming considering most polls in advance and support for Kukiz plummeted in the end. Additionally, Kukiz performed well better than Holownia in the pres. election.

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Have seen several polls on Europe Elects now in which a Rafal Trzaskowski party was included. To anyone from Poland: Is this a legit thing or just a hypothetical scenario? Does Trzaskowski intend to break with PO?

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For some reason we're discussing Donald Tusk's return to Polish politics again.

This time the plan seems more advanced than the last fifty times we went through this routine (apparently he might take over the leadership of PO on an interim basis at a special meeting of the national executive on Wednesday) but I'll still believe it when I see it.

Reminder that PO is polling at 16%, behind both PiS and the guy off Poland's Got Talent.

Do you think support for Holownia will actually materialize or is it just a polling bubble that will pop just like with Nowoczesna?

Not an expert in Polish politics, but looking at how PO polled through its history, the party seems to be quite resilient in comparison to the one-hit-wonder parties centered around a single person (correct me if I am wrong). How would you evaluate PO's future prospects?

[Astatine]

So, apparently Tusk is actually back this time.