British Local Elections, May 2024

[CumbrianLefty]

Two weeks is enough, especially given that no Tory has any chance of actually winning there.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, this is one of the quieter local election years in the four year cycle.

[CumbrianLefty]

First poll for London mayor since Feb:
https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1771103272201331148

This will be the first London mayoral election held via First Past the Post.

Why though?  It seems like such a huge step backward to go to FPTP.

Because the Tories think it will benefit them.

On the whole perhaps, though not everywhere.

Though at least as important, perhaps, was more general culture war vibes driving the change.

[CumbrianLefty]

A totally, almost literally insane Tory campaign video (purportedly anti-ULEZ) has been put out by the Susan Hall campaign. It was initially withdrawn after widespread revulsion *and* ridicule, but seems to be now back up again. No, a link will not be provided to it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its the same as the old West Midlands metropolitan county, so no funny stuff there at least.

It is fair to say the Tories got *very* lucky with the original choice of Labour candidate in 2017, yes. Liam Byrne, their standard bearer in 2021, would probably have won then but four years later Street had been able to build a profile and the tide was at that time going in the Tories favour anyway.

(which is obviously not the case now, so holding it even as a TINO would be a notable achievement)

[CumbrianLefty]

Though they are clearly prioritising the coming GE over local elections, which clearly sets them apart from not just the LibDems and Greens but some of the bigger "minor" parties. Which doesn't mean such an approach *can't* be successful - the coming election may well be an interesting test of this.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think there's a good chance that there potential GE vote basically gets lost in the campaign and they basically end up getting what I could unfairly call the 'online boomer' vote combined with people who think the Tories haven't been right wing enough; this might get you 6-7% of the vote, but without a local base where are they going to target?

The maybe honest answer from some Reform people is "this election is all about finding out where our 2029 targets should be" - when they will also hope Labour becoming more unpopular (maybe) will help them. Having said that, even this presumes getting a fairly decent overall vote.

Re your later comment, James Goldsmith announced beforehand that the Referendum Party would be a one election operation and wound up subsequently - and of course he died soon afterwards anyway. Quite a few of its standard bearers soon migrated into UKIP.

[CumbrianLefty]

You could see the Tories getting clobbered everywhere, though.

If so, who is going to win if not Labour?

[CumbrianLefty]

Eh?

That is a completely normal thing every year.

[CumbrianLefty]

How is the weird east of England mayoral looking? The boundaries really confuse me

You did mean the "East Midlands" contest, right?

(there is a genuinely weird "Leader (ie NOT mayor) of Suffolk/Norfolk" thing proposed, but that has now been pushed back - likely to next year so as to coincide with the CC elections)

[CumbrianLefty]

Not the worst set of numbers for Street. Equally positive with Tory/Lab voters is pretty solid, and in an FPTP election, I'm sure the Reform numbers will be squeezed. Not to mention Parker underperforming Labour as a whole.

I'd still rather be Labour in this environment, but given the 2021 polling error in London, you'd need some real ego to rest on your laurels...

Though he might have more chance under the old system than FPTP!

There are LibDem and Green votes to target as well as Reform, and tbh I wouldn't place too much on the London polls in 2021 being inaccurate given that Covid was still majorly complicating things then.

What we *can* take from this poll is that the strikingly widespread belief (from Labour people as well as Tories) that Street would be "easily" re-elected may not have been that well founded in reality.

[CumbrianLefty]

The funny thing is that Labours vote is basically the same as it was in 2017 and 2021 I think- and as CL said Street would have had a good chance under AV to do quite well.

I’d expect it to be closer but it’s a sign of the Times that Street who is a popular, respected and quietly competent figure is treated like a semi god.

I know you probably didn't mean to put a capital letter there, but still its not inappropriate is it

[CumbrianLefty]

The answer to that last question is - it almost certainly played a part, yes.

[CumbrianLefty]

Apart from the obvious fact we should wait for the actual results before making any sweeping claims about "defying the odds" - if this and indeed the West Midlands mayoral contests become about who can mobilise their vote best in an inherently close contest, there's not much doubt who has a better ground game just now out of the Tories and Labour.

It is quite possible that - partly due to that - people who are currently Tory inclined in polls are less likely to actually vote next month, whilst the opposite is true for their opponents.

And specifically regarding Houchen, how much publicity have his travails had in the MSM (as opposed to more specialist outlets like Private Eye)?

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm very dubious about polling these elections, but it's important to note that these are low-turnout affairs for posts that are, in all honesty, not very powerful or even especially high-profile.

There are a few obvious exceptions to this, mind.

[CumbrianLefty]

Interesting platform. Going to be an uphill battle for her though. Labour won this ward with an increased majority in 2023.

Fringe party who can very likely be expected to poll accordingly.

(to a degree at least, they are an offshoot of the Women's Equality Party - a more established minor electoral outfit - who however cleared out most of their TERFs after some internal warfare)

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently the previous R&W survey in the West Midlands didn't prompt by name for the mayoral VI, which is tbh pretty poor bordering on negligent given how personalised these contests can be.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour figure in West Mids looks suspiciously low - are they *really* down on 2017 and 2021? Even more so given that the "protest" candidate targeting their left flank over Gaza is only on 3%.

[CumbrianLefty]

Worth noting that at the start of the year neither the West Midlands or Tees Valley race seemed close; in both cases Labour have picked local councillors with a relatively low profile (which is imho not the worse tactic!)

It’s a sign of the Tories impressive expectations management that they could lose 500 seats, and hang on with two popular (for different reasons!) incumbents- and it will get written up as a good night for them

On that point YouGov today had both incumbents up narrowly. They are definitely being hyped up as the races to watch, even though they really shouldn't IMO, and it probably works to the Tories detriment.

Most obviously, they need both of them to *actually* win. An awful lot is being staked on what remain likely to be two rather close contests. This is one of the differences between now and the (in)famous Wandsworth and Westminster strategy in 1990 (was it *really* 34 years ago now??) given that both of those were actually Tory blowouts and clearly foreseen by most as such some time beforehand.

[CumbrianLefty]

Worth noting that at the start of the year neither the West Midlands or Tees Valley race seemed close; in both cases Labour have picked local councillors with a relatively low profile (which is imho not the worse tactic!)

It’s a sign of the Tories impressive expectations management that they could lose 500 seats, and hang on with two popular (for different reasons!) incumbents- and it will get written up as a good night for them

Pardon my ignorance but when you say these contests did NOT seem close at the start of the year - is that because people assumed both would be easy Labour pickups in what promises to be a Tory meltdown in the locals or that because people assumed the Tory incumbents had enough personal popularity to be unbeatable?

No, quite the opposite - Houchen and Street were both expected to win easily *despite* the polls.

[CumbrianLefty]

Pardon my ignorance but when you say these contests did NOT seem close at the start of the year - is that because people assumed both would be easy Labour pickups in what promises to be a Tory meltdown in the locals or that because people assumed the Tory incumbents had enough personal popularity to be unbeatable?

No, quite the opposite - Houchen and Street were both expected to win easily *despite* the polls.

Which is ridiculous given Street only won re-election by 54-46 in a very good Tory year. Just goes to show how ignorant our media is.

I yield to few in my disdain for this country's politics scribblers (all the recent hilariously delusional drivel about "Rishi's best week" is surely reason enough for that) but in this case it wasn't just the media assuming this, but political activists from all parties as well. Earlier this year, Labour briefers were saying both Houchen and Street would "walk it" - that wasn't just expectations management.

[CumbrianLefty]

NE Mayor is a Labour gain/hold 185K for Labour, 126K for Driscoll. Tories close to Reform.

Driscoll even lost narrowly in Newcastle, where he had been very confident of topping the poll.

[CumbrianLefty]

There have been a few council byelection results declared in London.

They suggest neither Labour collapse or a massive Tory surge.

Especially since they were last fought in 2022, when Labour carried London as a whole easily. Surely a Hall win is going to require major split ticket voting in her favour, as well as all the other things.

But stranger things have happened.

[CumbrianLefty]

The first detailed result from the new East Midlands mayoralty had Labour narrowly carrying Rushcliffe - it is fair to say "Wanna Three Jobs Ben" isn't going to achieve that target with this one.

[CumbrianLefty]

Notably underwhelming showing by Galloway's franchise in Rochdale - especially given the gains some playing the Gaza card (Indies, Greens and even LibDems) have had from Labour in other places.

(by way of contrast - a few months after his 2012 win in Bradford, his allies took five seats off Labour and weren't far off a couple more)