United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[CumbrianLefty]

Some papers claiming that Sunak has virtually ruled out a May election, with the Sunday Times saying a further "fiscal event" is planned in the autumn.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well…if there IS going to be an election in May, we’ll find in the next 10-12 days or so? We shall see.

Indeed so, and some are suggesting this morning's news makes it more likely (even if that may still appear somewhat counter-intuitive to some of us)

If there *isn't* going to be a May poll, will Sunak make some sort of statement to confirm this?

Or maybe more likely, just keep schtum about the matter until the time to do so finally dribbles away.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think that even the LibDems are expecting their vote to nosedive in Finchley next time.

[CumbrianLefty]

October 10th now being briefed as a possible GE date.

If this is seriously planned, then there will need to be some guidance regarding the party conferences sooner rather than later (as they would need to be cancelled if it is indeed going to be held then)

[CumbrianLefty]

I doubt Tory MPs are dumb enough to actually unseat Sunak without a replacement, but I could see enough panic that he ends up getting subjected to a confidence vote. That would be another setback going into an election campaign.

having a confidence election and perhaps a new leader is unlikely to reverse their brutal poll numbers.

No one really knows, except the certainty of a record defeat under the present course.

Take 1995 for example, everyone but a majority of Conservative MP's knew that they where going to be smashed, yet they voted to keep John Major and maintain their course to oblivion.

Heseltine and Portillo regretted that they lost their only chance to be PM even for a day, "What if" ect.

It isn't just that tbh, its that those in the Tories who want a "change" can't agree on what the change should be. Back in 1995 there was an obvious alternative (Hezza) if Major was indeed forced out.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, it is fair to say Redwood was a "stalking horse" rather than a serious leadership candidate.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, it is wrong to think the right of the party is united about any possible course of action.

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently some "right wingers" are actually putting forward Tughendat as a possible PM now.

The mind boggles.

[CumbrianLefty]

It is really as simple as hoping something - anything - turns up to give them a lifeline.

Unlike some, I never thought a GE on May 2nd a very likely prospect with the polls as they are.

[CumbrianLefty]

It's looking very close to Canada 1993 if you combine certain elements of the 2015 election (the major third party being decimated and a separatist party surging) and the shares of the three biggest parties in the above poll. Although Lincolnshire would need to be Reform's Alberta for it to work fully.

Lincolnshire, Essex and Kent?

[CumbrianLefty]

I know MRP polls are supposed to be viewed in the macro, rather than the granular, but there’s some *weird* stuff in the Survation projection:

Labour winning the Tory-Lib Dem marginals of Hazel Grove, as well as Woking for one. They’re also winning Frome and East Somerset, the prototypical Lib Dem tactical voting seat.

The difficulty is that on a national and basically all demographic level, the Labour vote is up a lot while the Lib Dem vote is static. There is no scientifically rigorous way to model which constituencies will see tactical voting for the Lib Dems and which will see a credible Lib Dem vote fall away in Labour’s favour. They could stick some arbitrary tactical voting on the numbers eg; Labour vote will rise a lot less where the Lib Dems are 2nd, but it would clearly still be arbitrary and wrong in many places as well. There’s similarly a long-standing issue with MRPs (some more than others), where the vote for parties is flattened and it’s particularly striking for the Labour vote in Tory-Lib Dem marginals. A lot of this is simply a reflection of the underlying Labour vote (both natural Labour voters and people who are defaulting to them nationally as the non-Tory option) which will be squeezed by the Lib Dems come election day.

The Electoral Calculus MRP a few weeks back was a bit more plausible in that respect, but even it had Labour ahead in Chichester, for example. I’d quite like to see one of those YouGov ones with a proper MRP sample size, but they’ve only done them during the actual campaign.

They did one in January - https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48371-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-would-win-1997-style-landslide-if-election-were-held-today

Which, notably, used an Opinium/Kantar style VI methodology.

[CumbrianLefty]

So Reform UK sacked its candidate for York Central for "inactivity" after not returning calls or emails.

...turns out he had been dead since February.

Reform UK admitted it didn’t realize that Tommy Cawkwell, its election candidate in York Central, had perished when he was sacked for lack of activity.

“We can’t afford to have people doing nothing in an election year,” a party spokesperson had told local news outlet the York Press.

But Cawkwell had actually died two months before.

Reform UK spokesperson Gawain Towler said Wednesday night he was “mortified” at the error.

https://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-party-fired-candidate-inactive-turns-out-dead-uk/

I can't 💀

Though on the plus side, it is one of the more foolproof ways of ensuring no errant social media posts.

[CumbrianLefty]

That headline in the Guardian was almost laughably bad.

And the actual "story" wasn't any better.

[CumbrianLefty]

How much danger is Truss actually in?

Hard to say. The seat has a marginal history, but that is really a long time ago and its recent results make it look like a seat the Tories ought to hold even in a real meltdown. However I suspect that Truss is genuinely a liability even in her constituency and Bagge does seem to be getting some traction. So there's a possibility he could split the Tory vote and let Labour through the middle or, if he can attract tactical votes, potentially challenge to win himself, but it's very hard to judge how much traction a candidate like that is getting from outside and there is not much history of similar candidates having an impact. (But there also isn't much history of the Tories polling in the low 20s...)

If you're thinking of the 60s and before, that *is* really a long time ago--but then, not so long ago, there's '97's 42.0% vs 37.8%, and the Tories are doing even *worse* now...

And that 1997 result was with Gillian Shephard, almost certainly more locally regarded than Truss is now. Against that, however, Labour's 1997 Norfolk GE results (together with remarkably strong local election performances in the previous few years) were in hindsight maybe the last gasp of the former rural agricultural vote that had once been enough to elect MPs there until 1970.

So structurally, it is a safer Tory seat now than ever before.

But if anybody can mess that up, maybe Lizzie can.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some older voters would still have been around in the 1990s, surely - and many may well have been the types to have gone over to the Tories in the 1970s/80s but returned for one last Labour hurrah.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but not all of them went to the towns - others found alternative employment locally for example. This will often have been a lot less intensively unionised, if at all - which will have helped the swing against Labour that was happening anyway. Some will have bought their homes under RTB as well.

I don't think the extremely strong Labour performances in East Anglia at the 1995 local elections in particular (the swings were often massive even by the standards of that year) is explicable other than by a significant part of that "traditional" vote still remaining.

(now it really *is* literally dead apart from a handful of extremely old people)

[CumbrianLefty]

Differing opinions on election date in the media today

Times: Sunak tempted to go for broke with summer election
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunak-tempted-to-go-for-broke-with-a-summer-election-fzkdnx5j3

FT: Hunt to cut 2p of NI in Autumn Statement (suggesting October 17)
https://www.ft.com/content/4972e747-1297-4f81-8162-0b4d0d68c9af

Metro: With nothing left to lose either way, Sunak might call it as early as June.
https://metro.co.uk/2024/04/20/rishi-sunak-has-nothing-left-lose-may-hold-election-early-june-20685077/

Simply a rehash of previous rather substance free rumours.

People at the Treasury - including Hunt himself - are still telling people what might be an an autumn financial statement, so either they are totally out of the loop or (perhaps more likely) this is just more gossip from bored and easily distracted hacks.

Why should he call an election six months early if he KNOWS (with as much certainty as one can have about these things) that his party is going to be not just beaten but annihilated? Yes, things *might* get even worse (somehow) if he delays, but on the other hand the "horse might talk". If you really do have "nothing to lose" it still makes more sense to hang on hoping for some miracle.

[CumbrianLefty]

Warning fanfic incoming:

Unlikely election scenario: tories wiped out in the may local, street and houchen defeated etc. Sunak is blamed and suffers a VONC. The conservative factions have a stitch-up to ensure Moudaunt is PM, with Badenoch, Braverman and Jenrick all rewarded enough to ensure the right are calling shots (Liz Truss is not given a place with the other wingnuts, obviously). The ultimate hail mary is that Reform is also rewarded in this, because Tories have come to fear them and believe that at least they could defang them - Tice and Farage are both given peerages and act as surrogates . This does kill Reform, but apparently is too toxic for some Tory voters, leading to a mini Lib Dems bounce. Moudaunt and her new cabinet immediately call for a summer election, as it's not likely they can do anything else.

Well, you said it was fanfic

Sunak can likely buy off at least some rebels with the promise that once these now almost mythical planes to Rwanda finallly take off, electoral base metal will magically be converted into gold

(in other words, not terribly convinced after this week that he loses a VONC even if it happens)

 

[CumbrianLefty]

No, 40% would actually be a (small) fall for Labour from their 2019 GE showing.

The same poll also shows not just Labour slightly improving its Senedd position (both in the direct and list votes) but Gething's personal rating markedly up on their previous survey.

Please make it make sense

[CumbrianLefty]

Bizarre flurry of speculation yesterday that Sunak is going to announce a GE this coming Monday.

*Probably* not true is now the consensus, but keep your ears peeled just in case I suppose

[CumbrianLefty]

I think the argument for going long is more a hope that something will happen rather than anything specific.

Yes, "something might turn up" is always a powerful motivator. However bleak the chances of this.

Sunak refusing to explicitly rule out an earlier (I think we can stop saying "early" at this stage) poll in this morning's interview, but many think this is more about trying to keep his errant MPs in line.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well it is becoming clearer that Sunak isn't going to call a GE *before* this weeks elections (not that I ever thought that a realistic possibility anyway)

Afterwards? Who knows.

But still October onwards should be the default assumption.

[CumbrianLefty]

He would have to call a June election *very* soon after what are likely to be pretty bruising results this week. July remains a possibility (maybe especially so if Tories do a bit "better than expected" - which would likely need more than just narrowly holding two mayoral races, however)

[CumbrianLefty]

Electoral Calculus isn't designed for anything but the bin, you mean

[CumbrianLefty]

Number 10 now apparently saying no GE before the autumn.