Israel-Gaza war

[CumbrianLefty]

This is not the time to tell me how awful Bibi is.

Au contraire, there is never a bad time to do this.

The weekend was another example of his failure, after all.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but he has made it very significantly worse. And however hostile his predecessors may have been to Palestinian self-determination, they never palled around with the loony right in the way he has.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not sure how its so dumb to sanction the British police officer yesterday who threatened to arrest a man for wearing a Jewish Kippah? Isn't that a human right?

You might want to update yourself on that story.

It was certainly one of the most predictable things ever that there would turn out to be rather more to Mr Falter than we were told initially.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, can't see any potential drawbacks or problems with war mostly conducted by AI.

None at all.

Well done to all the galaxy brains on this thread who are just fine with it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Do Israelis on the ground actually understand the severity of their isolation? Do they care or is their media just as bad as ours?

Several of Israel's top historical enemies just united to defend it from an air assault after being pressured diplomatically by some of the most powerful countries in the world.

That is indeed quite true.

I suppose the question is if they extracted any price for agreeing to do that.

[CumbrianLefty]

We shall see, I suppose.

Some (eg in their media) assured us that Israel was going to respond "massively" to the Iranian aerial incursions, but that hasn't happened as of yet. Which alone makes me think of a quid pro quo.

[CumbrianLefty]

If both Hamas and Bibi take massive reputational damage as a result of this mindless war, that is the best possible silver lining really. Maybe this really is rock bottom.

[CumbrianLefty]

You do know what the phrase "silver lining" means, one presumes?

There's certainly no denying that it is a very big black cloud.

[CumbrianLefty]

Except that both sides are apparently seriously considering it nonetheless.

Maybe even they are getting sick of the war now, we live in hope.

[CumbrianLefty]

"We will go into Rafah even if a ceasefire is agreed" makes absolutely no actual sense does it??

So you could, from an optimistic standpoint, just see it as Bibi bulls***ting to please his audience.

[CumbrianLefty]

'You can't destroy the Tamil Tigers'

The exception, not the rule.

[CumbrianLefty]

Israel can appreciate the aid it gets from its allies without ever allowing itself to fully rely on them. Remember that if Trump had gotten his way in the 2020 primary, it likely would have been Sanders choosing how to assist Israel during this war, potentially with Secretary of State Tlaib whispering in his ear.

Absolutely hilarious, are you here all week?

[CumbrianLefty]

Trump just won the election today.

Israel winning the war is more important than the outcome of the election

Israel won the actual "war" long ago.

This is all about killing and destruction for the hell of it.

And keeping one deeply sociopathic individual in power for its own sake.

Is this what you "stand with Israel" for? To be reviled by the entire civilised world, and only supported by the most amoral monsters?? Is this what the old Zionist vision has come to?

[CumbrianLefty]

All this, simply so that one man can stay in power.

That is the undeniable bottom line.

[CumbrianLefty]

But that is one significant reason why Netanyahu wants to carry on the war indefinitely, to maximise the chances of a Trump win. If the re-elected Orange Man ever allows the US to have free elections again, given his age Bibi will view any future more hostile Dem administration as not his problem.

[CumbrianLefty]

Hopefully the poor Israeli girl wins and shows this is just an ugly, loud minority.

Well the "Israeli girl" is actually a Russian who performed in Crimea after it was seized from Ukraine.

For that reason alone, I hope they don't win.

[CumbrianLefty]

The first international declaration that a Holocaust was occurring was made by the United Nations on December 17 1942. What the Allies could 'do' was very much tied in with the overall military response to the conflict.

They could’ve bombed the railways.  They didn’t because, to put it bluntly, they couldn’t care less about dead Jews.

It has already been explained that it wasn't as simple as just "bomb the railways, problem solved" - and even less so until the final stages of the war.

If you want evidence of a lot of Allied opinion being at best ambivalent about the Jews, then continued restrictions on Jewish entry throughout the conflict provide a much stronger example.

[CumbrianLefty]

Was reading about this conflict yesterday combined with Russia-Ukraine from a geopolitical perspective and what this does to "rules-based order". Here's my amateur armchair geopolitical take on what Netanyahu's grand goal in this is:

Netanyahu has stated complete elimination of Hamas is his goal, that cannot be achieved in my opinion for the same reasons the U.S. discovered carrying out the Afghan and Iraq wars against their own asymmetrical opponents. Therefore, Netanyahu's real goal in my opinion is to keep the conflict going until November. If the war is still going in November, it's a salient issue and Biden is put into a tough spot of any hard position he takes will be opposed by people that should be voting for him. In the event of a Trump victory, a new Trump administration would probably agree to Israel setting up a buffer zone in northern Gaza manned by Israeli military a la the Golan Heights with Syria. The buffer zone would be large enough to prevent Hamas incursions into Israel via underground tunnels or tube artillery. This would be almost universally condemned everywhere else, but Israel have clearly made the calculation that as long as the U.S. has their backs, no one else matters.

The future with a Biden victory in November is less clear, but I see Biden's clear both sides-ism he's displaying currently completely disappearing once the election is over, probably to drive harder bargains with Netanyahu. However, pro-Israel post-November will still have a clear majority in Congress regardless of election results, and I think that drives some of Netanyahu's calculus in U.S. relations is he knows Biden is outvoted by Congress, could maybe even override a veto, if a near 50/50 body you only need a third of Democrats to override a potential Biden veto.

I honestly think that one of the reasons he's dragging this out is because it hurts Biden politically. Once Trump wins, he will have free licence to do what he wants, no limits.

Netanyahu doesn’t care who wins in 2024, he just wants to keep power and stay out of prison.  Everything he does should be viewed through that lens.

He knows that Trump will make things easier for him, so wants Orange Man to win. I'm not saying the above is his *primary* motivation, but its surely not non-existent either.

[CumbrianLefty]

I would actually say that North America is *the* safest area in the world to be Jewish, though I do get the "safety in numbers" argument for Israel. Europe is also mostly not bad, most of the time.

[CumbrianLefty]

Of course I am aware of Europe's history, but I am talking of the present day.

Unfortunately, certain grifters do like to pretend a few pro-Palestinian protests are some sort of mortal threat on a par with the 1930s.

[CumbrianLefty]

are gantz and gallant withdrawing from the War Cabinet?

Only threatening to at this point?

[CumbrianLefty]

And still less to do all this just so one person can stay in power.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think Israel has stopped giving a f-k about the International Community other than the ones who already back them (chief of which the US, of course). Probably a wise move at this point.

Putting all your eggs in the US basket is surely a hostage to fortune though.

[CumbrianLefty]

Last night was simply completely indefensible on any level and I am glad that CT recognises this.

(and his point that even at moments of genuine horror, we should stick to credible sources is fair)

Gantz should collapse the war cabinet this morning. Bibi has dodged justice for long enough.

[CumbrianLefty]

If there is one thing that last night's horrors do *not* demonstrate, it is "being careful". I genuinely make this plea to Israel's remaining uncritical apologists - please get your heads out of your wotsits.