UK local by-elections, 2023

[CumbrianLefty]

Well firstly thank you very much for starting this!

It has to be said that the way Britain Elects reports these results in elects by thirds/halves authorities has long been a bugbear of mine, however. The most relevant and interesting comparison is with the last time the ward was contested, and that is how it was done the previous time these elections were collated on here prior to the 2019 GE.

[CumbrianLefty]

Thank you for doing this, too.

As you will be aware, the very useful result summaries on Vote UK (though sadly fallen into abeyance recently) have followed a similar format.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, rural Kent (especially rural *suburban* Kent, if you get what I mean) might well be one of their last holdouts in any wipeout.

[CumbrianLefty]

Indeed, though it should be remembered the overall Tory result in Barnet last year was poor.

[CumbrianLefty]

And yet Labour failed to take the much "easier" target in North Wales.

[CumbrianLefty]

So another good week for the Lib Dems, but that's a robust Tory vote in Golders Green.

It continues the patterm of the past 10 years of Conservatives doing really well on local council by-elections, by I never pay much electoral attention to them.

They haven't been "doing really well" in most contests for a while now, do try to keep up.

[CumbrianLefty]

So another good week for the Lib Dems, but that's a robust Tory vote in Golders Green.

It continues the patterm of the past 10 years of Conservatives doing really well on local council by-elections, by I never pay much electoral attention to them.

They haven't been "doing really well" in most contests for a while now, do try to keep up.

Doing really well relatively to the opinion polls.

Even that's not generally true recently, the occasional outlier result aside.

[CumbrianLefty]

The CC division is a stronger Tory area of Tamworth than the DC seat, and thus indicates there is a very good chance Labour would have won the latter but for the Independent intervention.

[CumbrianLefty]

Scottish Libertarians with their usual score, never ceases to amuse.

[CumbrianLefty]

Two decent results for the Tories of course, by recent standards especially.

The swing to them in Cambs seems to be largely down to sentiment against a proposed congestion charge in nearby Cambridge city (though it is actually a County Council proposal)

[CumbrianLefty]

Hmm, strong result for the Tories in Rushden

It is, but is amplified by using the top vote method.

(in 2021 they fielded 3 candidates here, all other parties just one)

[CumbrianLefty]

Its partly simply a question of what vacancies turn up.

Earlier this year, there were quite a few winnable Tory seats for Labour - and they won most of them.

Since then, not so much.

Tories also did not so disastrously with local byelections in the run up to the 1997 GE - it was one thing that had some pundits arguing the result might at least be "closer than expected".

Generally speaking, saying that "these local byelections show that the polls are wrong" (and tbf there isn't anybody here being as crude as that) can be filed along with "these focus groups show that the polls are wrong" - motivated reasoning at least, and often outright wishful thinking.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its partly simply a question of what vacancies turn up.

Earlier this year, there were quite a few winnable Tory seats for Labour - and they won most of them.

Since then, not so much.

Tories also did not so disastrously with local byelections in the run up to the 1997 GE - it was one thing that had some pundits arguing the result might at least be "closer than expected".

Generally speaking, saying that "these local byelections show that the polls are wrong" (and tbf there isn't anybody here being as crude as that) can be filed along with "these focus groups show that the polls are wrong" - motivated reasoning at least, and often outright wishful thinking.

I don't think anyone is saying the polls are completely wrong, just that a Labour lead of 20+ points is a bit inflated. As Conservatopia says a Labour win in the mid-ish double digits in an election held tomorrow is probably more accurate.

The other thing is I think polling is significantly underestimating the Lib Dems and the potential they have to scoop up disgruntled ex-Tory voters across the South in particular. The Libs Dems are always likely to be able to do far better with these types of people when they don't fear a Labour government (as they did under Corbyn and to a lesser extent Miliband & Brown). A Lib Dem overperformance would be enough to drag Labour's national vote share down 5-10 points from where it is now even if the Tories fail to improve significantly.

Not here, no. But that view is certainly stated, and by prominent people on occasion.

And I do think 10 points is overstating it re your closing comment. There are still parts of the country that are an electoral dead zone for the LibDems (in a way that wasn't the case in 1997)

[CumbrianLefty]

It's also worth remembering that local by elections are well elections for local councils!

No-one would expect Labour to lose their two seats in Croydon but the voters did elect a Conservative council last year because they they rightly perceived the Labour council as being awfully ran- equally if you have by-elections in labour held councils the nature of local councils atm (e.g they're underfunded & having to do a lot of things badly) means you aren't going to see people running to the polls.

The ward by elections are good at Picking up individual quirks in seats (e.g how a party is doing with a certain demographic) but in the same way you can't exactly map local election results into national ones you can't map council by elections to the overall results.

This needs to be borne in mind, for sure.

Eg in this week's B&D byelection, Tories likely got some traction from the council being 100% Labour since 2010. Even so, they were still pretty decisively defeated.

[CumbrianLefty]

And with such low turnouts they may well skew even more to older voters, and we all know what that tends to mean in recent years.

[CumbrianLefty]

Both contests were in Labour-run councils with a less than stellar recent reputation - given that, they will likely be fairly content with those results.

[CumbrianLefty]

There are lots of local by-elections next week alongside the scheduled elections, of course.

[CumbrianLefty]

Just one this week...

Thursday 27 April

Andrew Teale's preview

Swansea; Penderry

Lab 485 (53.5%, -25.7)
Lib Dem 274 (30.2%, new)
Con 71 (7.8%, -13.0)
Green 42 (4.6%, new)
Plaid Cymru 34 (3.8%, new)
(changes on 2022 top vote)

Lab hold

Not untypical opportunist LibDem raid gets some return.

Likely to return to ultra-safe Labour come the next regular election, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

There are lots of local by-elections next week alongside the scheduled elections, of course.

Yes, a few in county councils and a couple in unitaries which aren't up.  There's also the usual crop of double vacancy elections in wards in thirds councils where there's a casual vacancy.

I doubt I'll have time next Friday to post anything about them, but that shouldn't stop anyone else...

Edit: I think this is the list of by-elections in councils which don't have any other elections, based on a list in another place:

Cambridgeshire County Council; Arbury
Cambridgeshire County Council; Soham South & Haddenham
Durham; Chester-le-Street East
Essex County Council; Laindon Park & Fryerns
Gloucestershire County Council; Highnam
Hampshire County Council; Purbrook & Stakes South
Kent County Council; Sheppey
Lincolnshire County Council; Eagle & Hykeham West
Norfolk County Council; Swaffham
Nottinghamshire County Council; Kirkby South
Suffolk County Council; Felixstowe Coastal
Suffolk County Council; Priory Heath
Surrey County Council; Walton South & Oatlands
West Sussex County Council; East Grinstead Meridian
Westmorland & Furness; Old Barrow & Hindpool (this council's first ever by-election)
Worcestershire County Council; Malvern Chase

(Colour coding refers to defending party; NB the green is not the Greens, but the Ashfield Independents.)

Results of the above:

Cambs CC: Lab hold Arbury, Con hold Soham
Durham UA: Lab gain from Con
Essex CC: Lab hold (their seat in a split Lab/Con division)
Gloucs CC: Con hold
Hants CC: Con hold
Kent CC: Con hold (a lucky one this, anti-Tory vote almost comically split)
Lincs CC: Con hold
Norfolk CC: Con hold
Notts CC: Ashfield Ind hold
Suffolk CC: Lab hold Priory, Felixstowe a LibDem gain from Con
Surrey CC: LibDem gain from Con
W Sussex CC: Con hold
West & Furn UA: Lab hold
Worcs CC: Green gain from LibDem (by 3 votes over Tories)

Tories hold most of their defences, but significant swings against in many of them.

[CumbrianLefty]

Says he will resign his Salford seat "as soon as possible".

(Labour won the same ward last week)

[CumbrianLefty]

This result means the "Green wave" from Stroud has reached the very edge of Gloucester.

I wonder if they might start to have a go in the city itself?

(especially given Labour's endemic and long standing underperformance there at local level)

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but *this* bit of Stroud is much more like Gloucester - if you get my drift.

[CumbrianLefty]

I was originally from another village on the outskirts of Gloucester, so understand what you mean as far as Upton St Leonards is concerned.

But always thought Painswick was at least as Gloucester facing as Stroud. There's a good chance the Tory vote actually held up better there anyway

[CumbrianLefty]

Not sure if there has ever been a "party political" election there at council level.

[CumbrianLefty]

Another oddity, and not one that'll tell us much about UK politics in general...

Monday 22 May

Andrew Teale's preview

Isles of Scilly, St Mary's

Ind Peacock 301 (67.6%)
Ind Jones 144 (32.4%)

The loser also came bottom of the poll in the last regular St Mary's election.

Third time lucky, or take a hint?