UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[CumbrianLefty]

And that didn't really have the feel of an imminent pre-election Budget.

Though who genuinely knows at this point.

[CumbrianLefty]

Judging by how much of the media have behaved this morning, an uninformed observer could easily be forgiven for assuming that we already had a Labour government.

[CumbrianLefty]

May giving her local paper, the Maidenhead Advertiser, the chance to break the story, rather than one of the nationals was quite nice.

It seems like there’s already briefing against her in the party - from those who think she timed it to distract from the budget, or as some sort of veiled criticism of Hunt’s performance. Tbh, I think they’re just worried people will take it as another sign of a spring election.

She has been pretty consistent about wanting to stay in the role until now - wonder if something’s changed behind the scenes, or if she’s just had a serious think about being in opposition next year.

If Maidenhead *is* vulnerable, I’d expect she’d know it before most others - she does seem to have made a habit of pretty frequent canvassing, even as the seat went from marginal to safe. I remember an interview with one of her chiefs of staff, who suggested May used Maidenhead doorsteps as a sort of focus group, which could have an oversized impact on her thinking at times.

It has been suggested the opposite is true - she thinks a May election is unlikely, and if she is correct announcing it now gives the local party the best opportunity to pick a successor.

[CumbrianLefty]

There are more Donelan developments this morning, if this carries on its not looking too good for her.

[CumbrianLefty]

And all told,  she isn't exactly great either.

Even if only for this one occasion, they could do worse than bring Paxman out of semi-retirement.

[CumbrianLefty]

Government people now openly gaslighting us by claiming that some of the most unequivocally racist and bigoted comments you will ever see were not racist and bigoted, ACTUALLY.

This is where we are, after 14 years of Tory rule. It has so clearly been a roaring success.

[CumbrianLefty]

On that subject, here's quite a piece from The Sun:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26641310/rishi-sunak-warned-off-may-general-election/

The main points are:

- The 1922 Committee has urged Sunak not to go for May. Does this mean that Sunak is seriously considering it?

- At the same time, a minority is urging him to go for it.

- Sunak has been told that he could be in real danger of a coup after the local elections, something which has been talked about for quite a while.

- But here's the best bit by far:

A senior Tory source said: “Early is for the birds and seven months is a long time in politics. Just imagine what would happen if England won the Euros, Team GB had a hat full of gold at the Olympics — the landscape could be very different.”

Weekend papers seemed to think the opposite. I think it quite plausible that a minority of Tory MPs are trying to bounce him into it, using the threat of a VoNC if it doesn't happen to get their way. But on past form, the PM might feel justified in calling their bluff.

[CumbrianLefty]

There's no right time to call an election.

Reform is an itch that won't yet, go away and the PM risks defections from MP's likely to lose their seats anyway.

Major had eighteen months or so of relative party stability, economic growth and a recovering poll position. The Tories have nothing like that now.

Going after the locals in May just risks a bloodbath with activists just when they are needed.

But if they are heavily defeated in a May GE, they will lose shedloads of council seats anyway (don't forget when most of the seats were last contested, after all) The "Tories have to go in May because councillors" thing is heavily overplayed by some.

And they still have money, and so can pay people to deliver their stuff at the end of the day.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think that efforts are being made to get Coyle to retire for his own good (there is likely less chance of him falling off the wagon if he leaves parliament) For different reasons, I think quite a few behind the scenes (including her friends) are trying to get Abbott to call it a day, there may be a chance of her getting the whip back as a goodwill gesture if she is thus persuaded.

I wouldn't be surprised to see both Huq and McDonald allowed to stand again, personally.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah he deliberately tried to be "clever" and (unsurprisingly) the leadership didn't take kindly to it.

[CumbrianLefty]

There’s lots of reasons to think the NEC will use an election to purge the PLP of its more embarrassing members, overtly or otherwise (Coyle, Duffield, Begum to name a few) and fill safe/held seats with people loyal/reliable to the leadership. The only reasons not to are 1. The media backlash throwing off the campaign or 2. A fear that LOTO/L2W’s control of the party is less than total. Given the abject humiliations inflicted on the left in recent years, 2 seems unlikely to me.

I really think there’s an underestimation of how much the party leadership overlearned the lessons of Corbynism in general & specifically O’Mara/Onasanya and the degree to which they are trying to make sure the PLP is as rigid as possible.

Duffield, if she would shut up a bit, has value as a Sister Souhjah. As long as she exists in the parliamentary party, and is perceived as "protected" by the leadership, they can counter any backlash for any policies they do undertake. As it seems clear a Labour government will do a lot of things that will piss off Duffield's, erm, fan-base, keeping her around while also passing a Trans-inclusive conversion therapy-ban allows attention to be redirected as needed. Provided Duffield has an on/off button. That, of course, has been called into doubt.

The powerful media/activist lobby that vocally supports Duffield probably prevents her from being dumped by the leadership - but also eggs her on to say things she really shouldn't.

I do think there is some value in your analysis though.

[CumbrianLefty]

It has been noted that one of Sunak's problems is that he's seen as being rich rather than posh. Posh people (such as Cameron, Blair and Johnson - all election winners as it happens) give off something of a class consciousness that makes them more acceptable to the ordinary folks. People who are merely rich don't tend to grasp their privilege to the same extent.

Never thought of it quite like that, but the above does make some sense.

[CumbrianLefty]

To own the libs and lefties, of course.

To many in the current Tory party, there really is no higher calling.

[CumbrianLefty]

If the PM is going to change his mind about a 2nd May GE, tomorrow is the last practical day to do so.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sunak's address last night had *lots* of cheering and desk banging.

Maybe the surest proof yet that he is in a bit of a tricky spot.

[CumbrianLefty]

Apart from anything else, that was a whole week ago?

[CumbrianLefty]

Apart from anything else, that was a whole week ago?

Sorry. Deleted.

It was a pretty silly stunt even then, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sometimes you just have to laugh at how brazenly hypocritical politicians get-
Sunak attacks Starmer for "arrogantly assuming he can just stroll into Number 10"

Almost textbook projection. He could actually have finished off with "....that's *my* job!"

[CumbrianLefty]

Another Sunday, another Sunday Times Piece about how the Conservatives just need to win over undecided voters and they could be in with a chance.

The correct response to this now is probably "oh, is that all?"

[CumbrianLefty]

This is somewhere where the last Labour government did make a difference, even if ultimately not as much as some would have wished.

[CumbrianLefty]

I've been to Preston. Didn't feel that bad. Though I did have a hard time finding a shop that sold creme fraiche/sour cream. Is that considered a posh ingredient in the UK?

It is fairly readily available in darkest Cumbria, so maybe you were just unlucky.

[CumbrianLefty]

Gavin Robinson MP is the new (interim) DUP leader.

[CumbrianLefty]

Matthew Parris: "I'm a sane moderate voice, the reasonable face of the Tories".
Also Matthew Parris: "We can't afford all these old people, let's do Logan's Run IRL".

It's stuff like this that hardens my skepticism about assisted dying. I just don't fully trust this country wouldn't head into a quasi-Canadian "euthanise grandma to save ✨our NHS✨" mode, somewhere down the line.

Parris has produced a fair amount of fairly ghoulish stuff recently.

[CumbrianLefty]

Parris has always hidden some quite unpleasant views behind that shit-eating grin.

But has recently got a free pass from many because he opposed Brexit.

[CumbrianLefty]

Boris Johnson, whatever else you might say about him, isn't as bad as a good 100 or more current Tory MPs in an ideological sense. Mostly because he doesn't have much of an ideology. 

Agreed, though that's not entirely a good thing either - it explains how he can mix so easily with the Bannon/Orban types as well.