UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[CumbrianLefty]

Not all Prime Ministers have actually had them, of course: Churchill didn't the second time around, neither did Eden, Callaghan, Blair or Brown.

Blair was warned off it after getting entangled in a "cash for peerages" controversy IIRC.

Don't think our most recently departed PM would be that fastidious.

[CumbrianLefty]

What is the "Labour NUT map"?

[CumbrianLefty]

Johnson has appointed around eight sitting MPs to the House of Lords. Understandably, the Truss government is having a bit of a panic about this. If Truss were to lose the resulting by-elections, she’d lose a third of her majority, and the government could be defeated with only around 25 rebel MPs.

As a result, Truss is trying to get the King (who signs off the creation of any new Lords) to delay the appointments - which is broadly understood to be unconstitutional, as the 8 would be both sitting MPs and appointed Lords at the same time, which is forbidden by the rules of both chambers.

The last thing the Palace wants is to be dragged into this fiasco of a government, so I guess Truss will have to either relent, or somehow force the withdrawal of the nominations. Deferring them just creates the potential for lawsuits and more infighting.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f114c4ca-4671-11ed-8885-043c27446b97?shareToken=e746d6bdd7e3c919ae3d181fb856e393

Sadly, the Monarchy can no longer sack a Prime Minister, otherwise I feel like Charles would probably already have done so to Truss.

Theoretically, yes they still can.

And there were indeed rumours that might have been a "last resort" to get rid of Johnson, had events in the summer become truly desperate.

[CumbrianLefty]

If Liz loses all these by-elections, would that bring a premature end to her time in power?

If Liz Truss loses 6-8 by-elections on one day (let’s be even-handed and say she holds onto Nadine Dorries’ seat) in a series of safe seats, she’ll be a proven election loser, and politically toxic. I can’t see how she’d be allowed to continue.

At that point, the voices in the party calling for the coronation of a new PM to minimise election losses and prepare the party for opposition would become far louder.

I wonder if this was intentional by Boris...

Wasn't he widely thought to be a Truss supporter, even if he never went public on his successor?

Though even then its quite possibly overridden by his "apres moi, le deluge" mentality.

[CumbrianLefty]

Braverman wants to make cannabis a Class A drug, apparently - apart from anything else I can't see our self declared "libertarian" PM running with this really.

And if Truss is the Tory Corbyn, what does that make Sue Ellen - their Chris Williamson?

[CumbrianLefty]

Nicola Sturgeon says there will be an Independence vote for Scotland in October 2023, even if the Supreme Court rules against it.

The leader of the Scottish government said Sunday that she will push on with her campaign to take Scotland out of the United Kingdom, even if she loses a Supreme Court case seeking authorization to call a new independence referendum.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon wants to hold a referendum in October 2023, but the Conservative U.K. government in London has said no. Britain’s top court is due to hear arguments starting Tuesday on whether Scotland’s semi-autonomous administration can organize an independence vote without the London government’s consent.

Sturgeon, who leads the Scottish National Party, said that if her Edinburgh-based government loses the court case, she will make the next U.K. national election a de facto plebiscite on ending Scotland’s three-century-old union with England.

She did not give details of how that would work. A vote held without the approval of the U.K. government would not be legally binding.

Sturgeon said that if the courts blocked a referendum, “we put our case to people in an election or we give up on Scottish democracy.”

It's starting to look like Scotland is going to become the new Catalonia.

Well given how Catalonia turned out, more fool them.

[CumbrianLefty]

Knock-on-wood but the 1st deselection of a Labour MP in 12 yrs. is imminent in Ilford South:

https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1579566881429942272

Though that "first in 12 years" stat is partly because certain people jumped before they were pushed.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its certainly the last thing she needs......

[CumbrianLefty]

The only argument I can think of for not getting ride of Truss is that it would be embarrassing to junk a leader so soon after the party junked the last one. Whilst that is true, on the other hand Truss' presence at Number 10 will be embarrassing for the party every single day that she remains there, so I think getting rid of her is a no-brainer. She's not going to change and become a well-briefed, charismatic leader with her finger on the pulse of public opinion, so the party may as well roll the dice again as its hard to think of anyone in the party who could be worse.

Getting rid of her *this* soon would make the Tories look utterly ridiculous, though.

(they do already, I know - but its still a consideration even so)

Ideally, she should be given enough time* for her total failure to be indisputable even to the most dim hack at the Barclaygraph - the question is if reality will allow that relative luxury.

(*which still doesn't mean *that* long, either - next summer at the latest)

[CumbrianLefty]

The 2nd, 3rd and 4th shortest serving Chancellors have occurred under the last two Tory PMs.

(Iain Macleod - the actual record holder - died a month after the Tories won the 1970 GE)

[CumbrianLefty]

Rumour doing the rounds (via the Times news team) is now that Truss will clear out most/all of the juniour Treasury ministers too, and that Hunt is the frontrunner to become Chancellor.

Not sure whether even Jeremy Hunt wants to take on that most poisoned of chalices.

Any chance the sociopath Simon "fool's paradise" Clarke gets junked as well?

[CumbrianLefty]

Unfortunately Hunt coming in as Chancellor and likely stabilizing of the markets will probably stem the bleeding for the Tories. Still think Labour are favorites but instead of Historic landslide (450+) or Blair landslide (400+) or Johnson victory (375+) - I think you’d see a modest victory with 330 seats or so. So much can change but that’s likely. The wasted worthless SNP votes really hurt Labour

The fundamentals - economic and political - remain poor.

Whoever is in charge of the Tories until the next GE, firefighting is going to be their main activity.

[CumbrianLefty]

If the reports that he has missed out on the rumoured peerage are correct, it hasn't been the best ever 24 hours for Paul "AT LAST A REAL TORY BUDGET!" Dacre has it?

[CumbrianLefty]

The butterfly effect from eating a bacon sandwich was really something wasn't it.

One wonders how sooner all of this could've come to an end if the guy who Red Ed told to run for Leader in 2015, one Sir Keith, had taken his advice.

A nice thought, but that is all it is. There are times *even now* when Starmer's relative lack of front line political experience is very noticeable, so there's no way he would have hacked it in 2015.

It does show that people recognised his potential from the off, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

One thing the Tories need to do is stop imagining that there is One Magic Trick that will solve all their problems - to a significant degree the current "British Crisis" *is* the Conservative Party.

[CumbrianLefty]

Even about a week ago, when things weren't *quite* as bad as they are now, one right wing pundit thought he could see one thing that might save the Tories - "if Putin launches a nuclear weapon".

That's basically where we are now, folks.

[CumbrianLefty]

Halfon is basically right, that's the thing. The "libertarian right" claque have always been big on the "shock doctrine" idea (ie make your outrageous actions a fait accompli before opposition has had the chance to properly organise) and they thought the concession over energy bills gave them a "carte blanche" to do this. Yes it has catastrophically backfired, but let's not lose sight of the plan.

[CumbrianLefty]

I suppose it's excessively optimistic to hope that this whole debacle means we might not hear so much from the "Tufton Street" think tanks for some time.

In particular, the supposedly "left-liberal" BBC giving them vast amounts of free (and usually totally uncritical) publicity. Ex-employees have acknowledged this is a problem.

[CumbrianLefty]

When Truss goes there will surely have to be a general election called won't there?

People keep saying this, but nobody can *force* a new Tory PM to call one.

[CumbrianLefty]

But they simply aren't going to call an election if they are aeons behind in the polls.

[CumbrianLefty]

But they simply aren't going to call an election if they are aeons behind in the polls.

The polls are, probably as bad as they could ever get. A 1997 rout is preferable to a 'break the model' level of destruction. So yeah, they still have time on their side.

You would certainly *think* so, but.....

[CumbrianLefty]

Well up to a point, they have never been close to regaining "pre-crash" levels of support.

[CumbrianLefty]

40+% Labour lead incoming?

How would that look in a seat projection??

It would still have the SNP nearly sweeping all of Scotland, probably

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/PARLYapp/status/1582016962410209282

Maybe that "urgent business" is writing her resignation statement tbf.

[CumbrianLefty]

Can we get Badenoch just to watch it all burn?

Braverman will fight her for it.