UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[CumbrianLefty]

The most absurd propositions quite often get 2-3% in polls, there is sometimes a "p***taking" factor.

[CumbrianLefty]

Especially high in YouGov surveys because people are taking them to hit an eventual cash reward.

I've definitely been guilty of this. Same with Opinium and Survation, that sacred cow of the left, though.

Not so much since they accurately predicted the last GE, tbf.

But yes, only they and YouGov really saw the Corbyn surge coming in 2017.

[CumbrianLefty]

I like Harry. I think the British press have absolutely done a number on him. The why is the issue that appeals to me.

With William, I have no idea what interests him. I don't know his charities other than he occasionally sells copies of the 'Big Issue' homeless magazine. I can't remember a single speech he's given in any cause or issue.

I note there is much more traditional "palace secrecy" regarding what his wife's treatment was about.

[CumbrianLefty]

Her being non-white and American is quite a lot of it, even before you get to more specific stuff.

Btw there is quite a big online "rabbit hole" conspiracy claiming that the Sussex kids aren't real.

[CumbrianLefty]

Seems like Liz Truss is trying to make a comeback of sorts but it's going about as well as her tenure as Prime Minister

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/06/bring-the-popcons-out-liz-truss-is-the-entertainment-that-keeps-giving

Another opportunity to savour the latest incarnation of one of UK’s shortest-reigning prime ministers

"My platform was amazingly popular, its just that nobody will admit it".

Yes, that is what she quite genuinely believes.

[CumbrianLefty]

She is never coming back to a major political role in the UK, trust me on this.

[CumbrianLefty]

Isn't "Sunak thought she was" actually the relevant point there, though?

[CumbrianLefty]

Though online types are already accusing him of doing Labour's bidding.

[CumbrianLefty]

Our former PM of that ilk has Donald as one of his middle names.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah, tbh I had assumed this was family related so was prepared to cut Humza some slack over it.

If not, well.

[CumbrianLefty]

I know its often said, but the initial BBC framing here really could have been dictated by Tory Central Office itself. It will be interesting if the resulting pushback causes that to change later today.

[CumbrianLefty]

A "technical" recession has been followed by "technical" byelection reverses. Any coming GE defeat for the Tories will also be "technical" because of an insufficiency of enthusiasm for Starmer. Or something.

[CumbrianLefty]

As it happens I think Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister, but Labour won't necessarily be a one-term government.

Let's not forget his age, after all.

(he would be the oldest PM to come to power after winning an election since when?)

[CumbrianLefty]

As it happens I think Starmer will be a one-term Prime Minister, but Labour won't necessarily be a one-term government.

Let's not forget his age, after all.

(he would be the oldest PM to come to power after winning an election since when?)

For the first time, after winning an election? Atlee in 1945, who was 62 years and 6 months (if it's an October or November election, Starmer will still fall short of Atlee's age, turns 62 in September).

Honorable mentions: Churchill returned to power at 75 and 3 months in 1950 via an election. Jim Callaghan became PM in 1976 just a week or so after he turned 64.

Churcill was a returnee, though he was in his mid-60s when first becoming PM.

Had forgotten that Attlee was that old, good call.

[CumbrianLefty]

I know Badenoch has a habit of making trouble for herself, but I would be... amused, if she actually finds a way to turn herself into the most high-profile casualty of the Post Office scandal, after everything that's happened so far.

Just seems dumb for someone with full access to parliamentary privilege in the Commons to choose to flirt with the sort of reputational damage you'd need to trigger a defamation case - out in the open on social media.

The same reasons why she appeals to quite a few Tories could also be her downfall.

[CumbrianLefty]

One of the longest standing and least edifying Auld Alliances is exposed again

Actually, the SNP can have a bit of slack here - they are entitled to do what they are doing, and whilst it may be annoying that it is so transparently trying to exploit internal Labour unease it is also a quite legitimate thing for a political party to do (and Labour have done it themselves often enough)

No, it is the *Tories* who have behaved here with total transparent shameless bottomless cynicism. I suspect it was that which caused Hoyle to do what he did - and why they are so mad at it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Hoyle should say he is staying until the GE, and then the next parliament can pick his successor.

There aren't that many sitting days even until an autumn GE anyway - which has been deliberately done by the Tories as they don't want to do any actual governing (as opposed to culture wars)

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes - but to be uncharacteristically brutal here, f*** them

[CumbrianLefty]

Let's be blunt - they are furious because their totally principled, correct and in *no* way opportunistic deal with the SNP (their supposed sworn enemy, remember) was exposed for all to see.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, see, this is the difference between me and Emma Picken: whereas she and her ilk denigrate their own nation at every opportunity while defending some foreign country, I am proud of England--which has every capability to be a great power--and believe that the Labour right should not be an outgrowth of Luke Akehurst's We Believe in Israel.

Maybe it's just me, but I'm getting really fed up of Eustonite fossils gushing over how nice and kind the IDF is and how we would never have such concern for civilian lives.

The time for 'strongly worded letters' (which are more symbolic than anything else) has long passed. That we will take no action is a damning indictment of our government, but not of our power.

I do agree with you that evangelically pro-Israel types are deeply tiresome if not worse, but isn't this sort of post just evidence that you are far too online? Yes, so am I - which explains why, like you, I am amongst the maybe 0.01% of the population who knows who Emma Picken actually is - but even when it comes to Luke The Nuke, how important is he in reality outside social media?? There are reasons why he has never actually come close to becoming an MP, and now almost certainly never will.

[CumbrianLefty]

But the political world has already moved on.

Btw it is now reported that the Speaker's meeting with Starmer that has so exercised some was also attended by half a dozen officials - who have claimed that nothing improper went on.

[CumbrianLefty]

The three Plaid MPs have signed the no-confidence motion in Hoyle, bringing the total to 86.

Duly sensationalised by some in the media as "an ENTIRE parliamentary party"

Not impossible that this was the SNP calling a favour in.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sunak surely has to call a May poll on the back of the biggest Labour to Tory swing since Hartlepool?

[CumbrianLefty]

She talks quite seriously about how he was "radicalised" online.

He's arguably not the only MP who has gone down that road either.

[CumbrianLefty]

New poll from Ipsos-MORI has the Tories at just 20%, 27 points behind.

Mystifyingly, this has started off another chorus of "it HAS to be in May!" online.

PM's don't voluntarily call elections when this far behind in the polls, period. Arguments from pundits of "but it will only get worse the longer you wait" don't resonate when their own job is on the line.