UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[CumbrianLefty]

As with so much else, there are other foreign countries in the world than the US

[CumbrianLefty]

Smith had a cancer scare quite recently, which may have aided this decision.

[CumbrianLefty]

Few more post-budget polls released Mon-Wed this week:

Redfield and Wilton:

• Labour 49% (+1)
• Conservative 28% (+1)
• Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
• Reform UK 5% (–)
• Green 4% (–)
• SNP 4% (-1)
• Other 2% (+1)

YouGov:

• Labour 47% (-1)
• Conservative 26% (+1)
• Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
• Reform UK 6% (+1)
• SNP 5% (-)
• Green 5% (-)

Looks like the budget's not really had an impact either way - mostly seems like statistical noise at this point...

YouGov poll was actually done 15-16 Nov (ie *before* the not-Budget)

[CumbrianLefty]

Another high-profile retirement announced this evening - William Wragg, Vice-Chairman of the 1922 committee, and Chairman of the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Select Committee.

He's only 34, and played a high-profile role in the defenestration of two Conservative PMs this year.

Wragg represents the fairly-marginal Hazel Grove, which was Lib Dem from 1997-2015, with that party maintaing a strong second-place ever since (Wragg's majority has shrunk each election since his first victory, from over 6K, to about 4.4K).

Wragg has had mental health issues, so as with Smith there is a reason other than the obvious.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-63727562?utm_campaign=later-linkinbio-bbcnews&utm_content=later-31226638&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkin.bio

The Supreme Court has ruled that Scotland can not hold an independance referendum without the UK Government's consent.

Why has this not gotten more comment here?

So, what can Scotland do? Hold a 'plebicite' instead and dare the U.K government to not recognize the result if it's in favor of independence?

So the SNP are in a bit of a pickle. The present and past crop of leaders - no idea about the future ones - really, really, don't want to do this sort of thing. They see how this has faired for Catalonia and all it has done is encouraged both the PSOE and PP to use the spiked boot when the olive branch and bureaucracy fail, calcified the impasse between both sides, and turned Catalonia's provincial government into an electoral extension of the nationalists. None of this is beneficial towards independence if you actually believe in that project, and aren't a cynical opportunist looking to use identity polarization to make the devolved government into a patronage machine cause you hold all the leavers of power for decades. Also, the SNP really want to return to the EU ASAP after independence, so everything has to be nice and legal for Spain and others to allow them in.

But why are the SNP in this situation? After the 2021 election, the SNP promised to reinvigorate the independence question. One potential legal path was this argument, that they could hold a vote without Westminster approval. That's now gone, though the outcome was expected. Then there was the idea of becoming the kingmakers in a 2023/4 election, and extracting Labour into allowing a vote for support from their MPs. That plan was blown up when Boris left and the Tories electoral bottom fell out. Now there's the idea of running a single issue campaign in the next GE on independence, and treating the likely results as full endorsement. That however seems like setting yourself up to fail, since Labour at this point are almost certain to make the Scottish results a net loss for the SNP at minimum. Which leaves the SNP backed into a corner where the Catalan option is the easiest way out. It is also the option which would most destroy their credibility outside Scotland and potentially negatively effect their electoral brand since an amicable divorce rather than conflict has been the desired and marketed outcome for decades now.

Thanks for the comprehensive answer.

It's interesting despite Scotland voting heavily in favor of remaining in the E.U, that it seems to have shifted only a small percentage of Scottish voters in favor of leaving the U.K.

Yes, that is interesting and not widely predicted in the immediate aftermath of the 2016 vote. It may well be that it put some swing voters off the prospect of yet more upheaval in the near term.

[CumbrianLefty]

And of course the one Scottish seat widely thought to have voted for Brexit - Banff and Buchan - was a traditional SNP heartland (even if it is currently Tory)

[CumbrianLefty]

One of the Britannia Unchained authors, though he does seem to have moderated a bit since then.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its just another example of how out of touch the Mail has become - even with most of its own readers - since an increasingly brain poisoned Dacre fully took control again.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sunak's main attack line today can not at all unfairly be summarised as "vote Labour and you will get pretty much what is happening right now". Maybe not the best election winning pitch, all told.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tbh that YouGov looks a fairly obvious outlier, but who knows.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sadie clearly had more of a spine than most Conservative MPs but I struggle to see what his legacy will be- maybe it’s because he was never in a post for long enough but he held about 15 cabinet jobs and I struggle to think of a policy area he really changed.

In a way, he was the John Reid of this Tory period.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not going to happen, surely. But still.....

The pundits who have tried to claim Labour's result in Chester wasn't very good actually, are a bit out of touch with the current mood I think.

[CumbrianLefty]

Zahawi's ability to utter complete rubbish with a totally poker face is one of his main strengths tbf.

[CumbrianLefty]

Small polling landmark today:
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1599810838734462976

In all of 2022, there has been a single poll (soon after the Russian invasion of Ukraine) that showed a tie - every other one has shown a Labour lead (varying between 1 and 39 points, mind)

[CumbrianLefty]

What makes Mhairi Black ruffle feathers?

She's an outspoken trans inclusive lesbian feminist.

And also (still) *very* young, which not everybody - including in her own colleagues - will like.

[CumbrianLefty]

Is anybody save her GC cronies tbf?

She had a face like thunder in the collective MPs pic after this election.

[CumbrianLefty]

Two in one day? For misconduct? When was the last time that happened?

They're not necessarily comparable - Labour's new policy is to suspend the whip when any complaint is made; the Conservative policy is only to suspend when their hand is forced (see also the several serious allegations floating around for people who are still in receipt of the whip.)

And of course there are arguments that Labour's approach is too heavy handed (coupled, inevitably, with suspicion that factionalism is sometimes just below the surface) and the way too many of these cases seem to drag on interminably (the most infamous case maybe being Kelvin Hopkins in the last parliament - though that shows that this, as much else, didn't actually start with Starmer) really does not help matters. Having said that, it must be said that not *all* the names of suspended Labour MPs are a total surprise, shall we say - and lets just leave it at that in a public forum

[CumbrianLefty]

What ultimately stiffed the independence side in Quebec was losing a *second* referendum, surely?

Having said that, number crunching this latest poll does seem to show a very pro-SNP/independence sample - so maybe sweeping conclusions should be resisted until more data is in.

[CumbrianLefty]

Scotland, though, has traditionally had more influence on the UK than mere numbers would suggest. Of course, that is less true under modern Tory governments who really are mainly English based (and mostly southern England at that, the current PM holding a Yorkshire seat notwithstanding)

Whatever happens though, nationalism there isn't going to die or even majorly decline any time soon - but an erosion of the recent SNP electoral hegemony is certainly more plausible, especially if a Labour government does take power in Westminster and is well received.

[CumbrianLefty]

Scotland is generally accepted as a distinct nation within the UK, though - and this has pretty much always been the case since 1707 (even at the height of "modern" unionism in the 1950s)

[CumbrianLefty]

I’ve seen a bit about the voter iD requirements coming in for the locals and a map with where people are most likely not to have photo ID- it’s going to be a disaster (as it was during the pilot) but isn’t there a very big chance it hurts Conservative voters especially in where these local elections are being held?

I’m not sure how aware they are about their own voter base…

It is still quite a lot easier for over-60s to get the required ID though.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sunak has no real answer to the claim that Tories actually want these strikes to continue.

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently Plymouth is no longer a coastal city, according to that map, which might present a bit of a problem for the Royal Navy.

Cities don't count - thus Brighton and Bristol are also excluded, but Bournemouth gets in.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its the mythology that Thatcher was always "resolute" and never ever compromised that is killing the Tories - Truss deployed this fairy story constantly during her fated 50 days as well.

[CumbrianLefty]

There were lots over time, though they mostly came before the 1987 GE which tells its own story.

An under-remembered one was her declaration that "the NHS is safe with us" at the 1982(?) party conference - some normally sympathetic think tankers and ideologues were far from happy at this.