UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[CumbrianLefty]

imagine dooming over numbers that still give Labour a landslide majority of 112 lol

Given the voters who have moved, it would likely be a bigger number than that. 16pts would also be the largest PV margin since 1931.

it would indeed narrowly beat the record since then (1983)

[CumbrianLefty]

I think they can just ride this out. Sunak will have to, it would be a terrible start for his premiership for his judgement to look so bad, and breaking the deal he's made would undermine his authority too.

The alternative view is that he should nip it in the bud whilst he is still enjoying a honeymoon with the voters (and yes he is, even if its not a transformative one) Delaying this just means Braverman doing more damage to an already toxic Tory brand before she is inevitably forced out eventually.

[CumbrianLefty]

Will they let His Majesty go as well now?

[CumbrianLefty]

PMQs not fantastic for Sunak this week. His Boris impression doesn’t really suit him. And when your closing line against Labour consists solely of attacking Jeremy Corbyn and his support for Hezbollah, you could be credibly accused of running low on relevant material.

Genuinely puzzling why he (or, maybe more accurately, those prepping him) seems to think reminding people that Starmer is not Corbyn will somehow be a winning line for the Tories.

[CumbrianLefty]

Will they let His Majesty go as well now?

I don't understand what the point of that, he's a ceremonial figurehead with no power.

Before he became the monarch, his interest in this topic was a widely known matter of record. There's a reason why PM Truss told him he couldn't go just days after his mother died.

[CumbrianLefty]

There are definitely parallels if you think about it, I would say.

[CumbrianLefty]

The likes of Braverman can never fail, only be failed. Remember that and it all falls into place.

[CumbrianLefty]

Can anyone imagine US consultants trying to run an actual campaign in UK politics

Jim Messina & David Axelrod c. 2015 certainly can.

Messina succeeded too - Cameron won an overall majority, the first for the Tories since 1992. Axelrod for Labour saw their near-complete wipeout in Scotland.

I recall Labour complaints at the time that Axelrod's commitment to the task was rather perfunctory.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, the "honeymoon" was fun while it lasted I guess.

Another poll shows the Tories "only" 18 points behind.

I do suspect they were hoping for slightly better all told.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not a terribly comfortable PMQs for Sunak today after last night's developments.

He might just recall the old saying about dogs and fleas right now.

[CumbrianLefty]

He surely doesn't have the political capital to survive a budget full of bad news, the hapless Home Secretary and an NHS winter crisis?

But they can't change their PM *again*, surely. Not until early 2024, if then - getting yet somebody else in not long before a GE that year could be the final "Hail Mary" pass for the Tories.

[CumbrianLefty]

Despite their continuing low profile, Reform UK now seem to be having a mini-surge in the polls - this could be another potential headache for the Tories.

[CumbrianLefty]

West Lancashire might actually be a slightly better prospect for them than either of those.

(but I still wouldn't go overboard)

[CumbrianLefty]

Greens also seem to be going up in some recent polls - the perception (even if not massively justified in reality) that the two main parties have moved closer together again may be a factor here.

[CumbrianLefty]

J****n W**B of Radio 4 form fame has a rather hilariously awful about the midterms where he somehow gets two mentions in about trans rights (basically complaining the Democrats did too well and won’t now argue about these issues affecting them).

Has he always been like this?

 I’ve always hated him on Radio 4- I remember him lambasting Rachel Reeves for not supporting a domestic tax cut on short haul flights under the claim ‘well working class families fly to Scotland don’t they?- she reminded him not many of her constituents in Leeds would be spending £350 quid on flights.

Webb has been obnoxious for a long time, yes.

And some might contrast his seeming freedom to say whatever he wants with the recent treatment of BBC newsreader Martine Croxall after she dared to express amusement over BoJo.

[CumbrianLefty]

So it was never more than five until recently? Slightly surprising if so.

It would be interesting to know the record number in, say, Australia (which had a few PMs with even shorter tenures than Liz "Jane Grey" Truss)

[CumbrianLefty]

Fraser died less than a year after Whitlam, so its quite possible the latter was also alive when this photo was taken (even if, given his age, not able to actually attend)

[CumbrianLefty]

Edit: Sunak is still in Bali, so PMQs today is expected to be a Raab-Rayner matchup

Heh, superb timing.

[CumbrianLefty]

See a lot of the cuts won't actually happen until after the next election.

Usual suspects already going on about how this is a "clever trap" for the opposition.

(only if they go along with it, which Reeves didn't really show much sign of doing today)

[CumbrianLefty]

Though the usual suspects still fawned over Hunt's totally false "you can't borrow your way to growth" canard, and also seemed more exercised by the "clever trap" for Labour than any actual measures.

[CumbrianLefty]

Actually today's Techne UK poll was also post-AS, and likewise had Labour increasing its lead.

[CumbrianLefty]

A policy that is both popular and entirely correct, always the best sort.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well in this case "the pollster" basically means Matt Goodwin, nuff said.

[CumbrianLefty]

Thankfully there's absolutely no evidence of Starmer promising something only to reneg on it as soon as he's been elected.

Well you can always take that attitude, and indeed remain totally miserable as long as someone from your faction isn't leading the party. Alternatively, you can see this as a welcome "win" for the left, and now try to ensure that the next Labour government actually delivers on it.

[CumbrianLefty]

The other bit of interesting news this morning is that Sunak’s people are briefing that he’s not going to support the Johnson-Truss plan on deferred peerages (to prevent 4 embarrassing by-elections).

The original plan was to ask KCIII to allow it - but Sunak seems to have decided that a constitutional showdown with a monarch is a bad idea. He’s instead planning to block the peerages - which is basically unprecedented in its own right (although breaking the precedent of permitting the last resignation honours list to be approved, no matter how seemingly corrupt is probably not the worst thing in the world - and may speed up the death of the resignation honours list as a whole, which would be no bad thing…)

Going to be interesting to see what impact that has - if true, he’s killed the gravy train for two of his own cabinet ministers, and Nadine Dorries (who’ll probably be angrily tweeting about this until the end of time).

Even if the above can be pulled off, there would surely be nothing to prevent at least some of the MPs in question resigning their seats out of spite in those circumstances.