Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

One thing that Russia hasn't altered for the better in the last few months is the sheer amateurishness - at best - of their "false flags".

[CumbrianLefty]

Is the Kremlin so stupid they are going to open a 2nd front on Moldova?

Erm.......yes?

They might not actually do it, but that certainly won't just be down to their good sense.

[CumbrianLefty]

Seems like Russia is trying out its blackmailing powers on one of the "weaker" NATO/EU members. When are those dumb assholes gonna learn that choosing escalation simply means that things are gonna escalate (for them too).


https://mobile.twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1519014631930580992

Well, seems like Bulgaria is on the menu too...


https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1519035732211417090


Kind of obvious that they're apparently trying not to mess with Germany, Italy, or France (bigger receivers of Russian gas than either Poland or Bulgaria) at this point, even though their present course of escalation might just as well make a general gas embargo more likely.

Also a bit dumb to lash out at Bulgaria of all places, considering it's still one of the most pro-Russian countries in the EU after Hungary.

Bulgaria in the Warsaw Pact era was always the most Soviet friendly regime. Bulgaria and Russians are both Slavs and Bulgaria even wanted to join the USSR back in the 1970s. There was no big protests or rebellions against the Bulgarian communist government.

That's not actually true, though I don't want to get dragged too far off topic.

[CumbrianLefty]

What are the odds of Putin launching an atomic strike against the US and NATO on May 9?

As near to zero as makes no difference.

[CumbrianLefty]

The ruble is now at it's strongest since Oct last year. Good job Biden you idiot.

Until if and when the ruble is a fully traded convertible currency, said "value" is pretty meaningless.

[CumbrianLefty]

Vladimir Putin, meet the sunk-cost fallacy. That's what the war has seemingly become for Russia at this point.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520167137507221506?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520170795112280067?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

One thing I keep noting that this guy clearly gets but a lot of people don't is that people dramatically overestimate the size of Russia's population.

Fun comparison (both rounded to the nearest 5 million):

Population of Russia: ~145 million
Population of Mexico: ~130 million

Think about that for a second. Would you be saying "Mexico has unlimited manpower, it can keep sending wave and wave of people into Guatemala, Guatemala has no chance here?" in the event that war was taking place? No, of course not. Russia is basically Mexico X 1.1 in terms of people. It's a way way smaller country than people think it is.

And that population is disproportionately elderly.

[CumbrianLefty]

I cannot see how Ukraine can resist this invasion.

But I didn't think Bosnians had a chance against the Serbs (Chetniks) in the 1990's either.

Putin does risk a lot here, so he will want this over short and sharp.

This has never been about repelling the initial invasion. Russia will overrun Ukraine if it really wants to.

The question is what happens after that.

So...anyone want to dunk on me for this? Worst take of mine in years. Never been happier to be wrong.

I think we all underestimated the impact that Western weapons deliveries are having on the war.
Go back to the battle for Hostomel airport. Had Russia won there, things would likely be much bleaker for Ukraine right now.

They reportedly almost captured Zelensky and his entourage on the opening day of the war too.

Those first few hours really were crucial - the real indictment of Russia is that once the "blitzkrieg" didn't come off, they had no effective Plan B.

[CumbrianLefty]

"Hitler was Jewish/partly Jewish" is a not uncommon meme in certain circles.

Pretty rare for a senior government figure to go there, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1521228157961089024

I hope the Ukrainians are able to put an end to the Russian Army’s genocide of ethnic Russians in the Donbas as soon as possible.

Ironically, the most pro-Russian parts of Ukraine are also the parts of Ukraine most devastated by Russia.

But that's their own fault for not being pro-Russia *enough*, you see.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its the very least he deserves.

[CumbrianLefty]

ISW assessed that a counterattack out of Kharkiv would be unlikely to disrupt Russian operations in Izium, as their supply lines weren’t near Kharkiv. It could spare the populous city artillery barrages, though.

And there are already reports that those have decreased markedly in recent days.

[CumbrianLefty]

Funny thing that occurred to me... unlike Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union largely managed to break up peacefully in 1991. Except that the war that didn't happen back then happens now, thirty years later.

If the instigators of the August Coup had been more successfully though, it could have already occurred in the 90s.

What I'm trying to say is... perhaps it was more or less inevitable, and it only needed the right wrong person to be in charge in Moscow.

The war was inevitable as long as a pervasive revanchist "great power" neo imperialist mindset existed among the military and political elite post-Soviet Russia. If it wasn't Putin, it would have been some other former mid-level Soviet official or officer that succeeded Yeltsin who would have followed a similar authoritarian and militaristic path.

Though it *still* has to be said that how much of the West behaved during and immediately after the USSR's fall didn't help things. There was far too much empty headed triumphalism, and the line many took towards Russia sometimes verged on the contemptuous. More respect might have made it that bit harder for the Putin mentality to become so dominant.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but the point is its still not a blanket rejection of everything "Russian".

[CumbrianLefty]

What is the sense exactly in posting the above?

sarcasm?

Maybe not with that poster though.

[CumbrianLefty]

Putin didn't use today to drop a nuke, then?

How surprising.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sure, and as already said their posting has definitely improved from when they started on this thread.

But still, context is all. Russia *is* making fairly limited gains in a few areas, but at a terrific cost even before the issue of the sustainability of said gains is considered.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/1525471028000038913

I mean, if you are looking for a textbook definition of "non sequitur".......

[CumbrianLefty]

Regretably, Mariupol has fallen.

Indeed. But in the end, how much of Mariupol is really left to fall? The Russians razed the city to the ground in order to take it.

And it still took about two months longer than they planned, and who knows how many Russian lives.

[CumbrianLefty]

Inertia can be one helluva drug.

[CumbrianLefty]

Seems like a fair win/lose categorization map

Why is Transcarpathia like that?

That and wouldn't the decisive Ukrainian victory include Crimea? I do think that retaking the pre-February 24 occupied Donbas is easier than taking Crimea, but if we are talking about a decisive victory, Crimea would be on the table. Other than that, the graphic makes sense. However, at this point, I would say that the split in half, decisive Russian victory is not possible and the landlocked Russian victory is extremely unlikely. All the others are all very possible.

Russia, deep down, cares about Crimea much more than the Donbass (and in this I mean the average "man in the street" as well as the country's elites) Even if they basically end up losing this war, there is a good chance they end up being offered some sort of concession there as a face saver.

[CumbrianLefty]

Quite apart from the fact they can't send their *entire* army to Ukraine, for obvious reasons.

[CumbrianLefty]

From the start, older Russian people - who are often USSR nostalgics - have been this war's strongest supporters. Though a minority of younger folk have fully bought into the "Z" thing.

[CumbrianLefty]

Three months today, of course.

Its always worthwhile to ask where you expected things to be at this point when it started.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yikes, this sounds like the worst week for the Ukrainians since they defeated the Northern offensive.  

Unfortunately, it does look like Russia has got their act together to a degree - though this was always likely to happen short of a complete disorganised rout.

However, the questions regarding the feasibility of substantial long term advances remain.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its a proposal, given all else that is going on anything concrete is some way off.