Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

The point is that a protracted stalemate is worse for the Ukrainian people than Russia's, but also very bad - indeed quite possibly worse - for the Russian state.

This maybe points to some sort of settlement being reached sooner rather than later.

[CumbrianLefty]

When Mariupol falls it definitely could be a major turning point. Russians have taken the majority of the city, although fighting likely is still ongoing.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/28/europe/mariupol-mayor-ukraine-occupiers-intl/index.html

Doubt if it will make as much difference as some claim, its main value is in keeping some Russian forces tied down - but its totemic importance as a symbol of Ukrainian resistance will arguably be higher even after if/when it falls (think of Vukovar's place in making the modern Croatian nation)

And apparently some local Russian sources have admitted "off the record" that they still don't control as much of it as they are claiming in public.

[CumbrianLefty]

Oh god Zelensky please don’t. If he gives up 1 yard of Ukraine soil he’ll just be inviting Putin to try this again in the future and would effectively kill the UN charter which forbids the seizure of land via force

Its ultimately up to the Ukrainians to decide what sort of deal is acceptable.

[CumbrianLefty]

And for all the bravado currently being displayed by some, Russia aren't likely to be invading Ukraine again (or indeed any other significant place) for some time to come should this war end soon.

[CumbrianLefty]

Militarily doubtful to change the trajectory on the Northern Front IMHO.

Starting to appear more like a full-blown retreat than anything else from that arena...

Yes, even if its well thought out strategy these sorts of things are always risky in a war.

[CumbrianLefty]

Zelensky just sacked two of his Senior national security officials...

Wonder what the backstory was here?

He announced he had sacked two senior members of the Ukrainian national security service on the grounds they were “traitors”.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60949706

Purely speculation here, but I wonder if it has something to do with the lead-up to the invasion when there seemed to be a lot of confusion high up in Ukraine's leadership about whether or not there would even be an invasion.

Zelensky himself was playing it down until a few days before it happened.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but if he was doing that because he was being fed duff information by certain people then it does rather alter things doesn't it?

[CumbrianLefty]

How are Russia going to keep the scale of their reverse around Kyiv from their own people?

[CumbrianLefty]

How are Russia going to keep the scale of their reverse around Kyiv from their own people?

Through a massive propaganda apparatus. Remember most Russians are just told this is just a "special operation" to support the "Donbas republics" and their fights against "nazism".

Well of course, but I really meant how are they going to do it *convincingly*?

[CumbrianLefty]

I’m confused about the oil tanks thing. It’s pretty clearly a legitimate military target and I guess the Russian position is that Ukraine isn’t allowed to shoot back.

Does Russia not understand the concept of a war?

Literally no, they do not. Their negotiator made that quite clear when he said it (the attack) didn't help progress or some sh**t. Leveling Mariupol, a city of 500K to the ground does? Raping teenage girls does? Bombing women and babies in a theater does? Russia, and not just Putin, believes they are entitled to peace and prosperity while committing heinous acts of literal terrorism abroad.

They also use WW2 as a shroud to justify getting whatever they want, no questions asked. At least in this respect, Russia is arguably an even more extreme version of the UK.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well that will get the Belarussian people right behind them

[CumbrianLefty]

I’m very strongly anti-war, but seeing the pictures of civilians shot execution style with hands behind their backs and mass graves makes my blood boil. I can’t even imagine what Mariupol looks like. If they continue to find more and more scenes like this, then I would be in favor of sending NATO troops in to directly fight the Russians.

Would that escalate things immensely? Yes. Would it likely lead to a broader war with Russia? Yes. But I’m sorry, if more scenes like today come out as more towns are liberated, I think we have to acknowledge that Kremlin leadership needs to be eliminated from this earth. In the 21st century, having a nation such as Russia engage in acts of genocide and ethnic cleansing simply cannot be tolerated.

Exactly. If a direct intervention leads to WW3, wouldn’t we be glad that a country like Russia no longer exists?

There is absolutely zero scenarios in which Russia 'no longer exists' but the rest of the world remains a pleasant place to live.

Yes, global nuclear war would still be worse than the very worst that the Russians could do.

Some hot heads on here may be forgetting this fundamental truth this morning - and tbf it is easy to understand that - but thankfully our leaders remain more realistic on this.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah so we are seeing it get closer and closer to the Holocaust. Wonder how much more the doves can stomach. There was no red line, they prefer appeasement at all costs.

I don’t think it’s too dovish to prefer waging a bloodless economic war on Russia, rather than send NATO troops into Ukraine, and risk a nuclear holocaust, that would kill almost every soul in Ukraine, as well as countless civilian lives across the world.

As several posters above have said - it’s understandable to be absolutely enraged by this - I’d be more worried if you weren’t (*cough* compucomp). I’ll confess where there are some days I want NATO planes to fly over the border and destroy as much Russian equipment in UA as possible. But in the current world order, that’s just not an adult or acceptable move. Escalation is a dangerous game, and not one the West is willing to play with Putin.

All we can do now is cut off trade with Russia, shame our allies who haven’t, and try to starve their economy, to show the Russian pubic just how much anger and disdain we have for their autocratic leaders. And do all of this in the hopes that new hands take the reins in the Kremlin sooner rather than later. (Although any Putin replacement could be just as vile. There’s not Boris Yeltsin waiting in the wings this time - just oligarchs and war criminals).

Yeah, but at least they might not be Duginists.

[CumbrianLefty]

Can we at least do away with the "we're doing nothing to help Ukraine" meme.

We are, quite frankly, doing a great deal more than I thought we might when this war started.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tankie energy strong this morning.

Tankies are sometimes good for a laugh (though somewhat less so this morning) but tbh I am rather more interested in Putin's right wing shills, given they are rather more influential and powerful.

What is their explanation for recent developments? Both military reverses and atrocities.

[CumbrianLefty]

Can we at least do away with the "we're doing nothing to help Ukraine" meme.

We are, quite frankly, doing a great deal more than I thought we might when this war started.

From the US, Ukraine has been given half the military aid that Israel receives (on average) every year - and in limited forms. With time, that will change - but aside from a few Eastern European countries and Britain, most of the world has done even less (proportionally) and continues to purchase Russian energy. We’ve done a bit for Ukraine, but more for Russia (indirectly), and most of the Ukraine-related defence funding has gone to strengthening of our own defence. This is short-sighted, for Ukraine is the best defence Eastern Europe has at the moment.

Doesn't alter that its still more than many of us expected originally. Even in a crisis like this, inertia is going to influence some things (eg the gas situation)

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/AnnaMyroniuk/status/1510524144349327360

These people are animals.

They're people. This is what humans have done in basically every war and violent conflict, for all human history and prehistory. It's immoral, but it's very human.All wars are like this. Think Iraq and Afghanistan were squeaky-clean?

No, they were awful.

But nothing like this, and pretending otherwise is the most specious whataboutery.

[CumbrianLefty]

In Syria, the opposition has been a mixed bag of factions but the Assad regime has been outright genocidal, backed by - hey, I’ll be! - Iran and Russia. Or do the same people who go into hysterics at the thought of ever opposing Russia in Ukraine suddenly support doing so in Syria?

There is a lack of good faith in the arguments they make.

Well that is a polite - some might even say somewhat euphemistic - way of putting it. Indeed one of the main reasons for the reluctance of many to openly intervene in Syria was the deeply problematic nature of much of the opposition. Only a few nutters ever disagreed that Assad is thoroughly bad.

[CumbrianLefty]

Poland hitting back at Germany, claiming it is Germany who is stopping new sanctions & that Hungary is onboard.

Germany is the main roadblock to imposing tougher sanctions on Russia, Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Monday during a news conference, adding that Hungary was not blocking them.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-is-main-roadblock-tougher-russian-sanctions-polands-pm-says-2022-04-04/

Citation needed.

Given how Orban openly gloated at Zelensky after his election win, I wouldn't mind a Hungary citation for the above either.

[CumbrianLefty]

I predict the Bucha Massacre will have a similar effect to the Malmedy Massacre.

During the Battle of the Bulge, the Germans executed some 84 US POWs in a massacre as an attempt to demoralise the US forces in the area. It had the exact opposite result though, only hardening their resolve. The 328th Infantry Regiment had a standing order for the rest of the war: all SS soldiers will be shot on sight. The 11th Armored Division massacred 80 SS soldiers at Chenogne not long after.

I expect several Ukrainian units will now have issued "Take no prisoners" orders in response, and I fully support it. You want to commit war crimes against Ukrainian civilians, don't be too bloody surprised when they stop taking prisoners.

Umm... GoTfan please review the comment bolded, since I doubt honestly and sincerely believe that you don't support Ukrainian massacres of Russian POWs.

Apart from its immorality, it would surely be ineffective in that Russian troops would be less likely to widely surrender in the way they have been doing if they thought they would all die anyway.

Btw the episode cited above is one often used by neo-Nazis (along with better known stuff like the bombing of Dresden) to "prove" the Allied powers were actually no better than Germany in the way they conducted the war. So as they say "lets be careful out there".

[CumbrianLefty]

That would be the ultimate bad ass thing if Ukraine could do their own Battle if Alesia at Mariupol .

Still highly unlikely. But taking back Kherson and Melitopol would also be pretty big.

[CumbrianLefty]

Russia now claiming that Ukraine killed their own people in Kramatorsk.

They really are total overgrown kids.

[CumbrianLefty]

Kherson is still firmly in Russian hands. The only activity by Ukrainians in the oblast has been in the northern part.

Nobody on here, at least, has claimed otherwise.

On the other hand, reports Ukrainian forces are getting ever closer appear to be correct.

[CumbrianLefty]

7,000? oof.

https://twitter.com/adegrandpre/status/1512541832990896136?s=20&t=wS6Dyq33bb...

There could be 7 million young russian bodies decomposing on Ukrainian streets getting eaten by rats and Putin would not care one bit. As long as he's gobbling up territory and resources, and butchering civilians for sport, he's happy.

Well currently he is doing a rather better job of the latter than the former.

[CumbrianLefty]

To carry out their ever more bloodcurdling stated plans, Russia would at least have to occupy all of Ukraine - and for an actual genocide they would have to stay fully in control for decades.

How likely is this, exactly?

Or is it just more blowhard rhetoric mainly designed for impressionable outsiders.